Should You Be Concerned About Skydiving Safety?

[GT1]

You are going to do skydiving at the first time in your life. A friend tells you that the skydiving club you are going to never had any accidents in the past 20 years. Do you need to worry more or less when you hear it? Why?

 

[mathman]

It sounds like a good safety record. Why worry?

 

[GT1]

A friend of mine told me that he was really worry to hear it because if nothing has happened so far, there is higher risk that it will happen now (and even higher the next day..) And then we started argue about it.. How can i prove it is not true?

 

[mfb]

A friend of mine told me that he was really worry to hear it because if nothing has happened so far, there is higher risk that it will happen now (and even higher the next day..)

This misconception is known as Gambler's fallacy.

Unlike in the classic example, however, skydiving clubs are not fair dice. Some clubs will have higher safety standards than others, so a long record of no accidents is a good sign that accidents will stay rare in the future.

Is 20 years a good value? I don't know. If the club exists for much more than 20 years, then this statement basically implies "but 21 years ago, there was an accident". To make the example more extreme, would you go to a club that is proud of "no accidents in the last 3 days!"?

 

[CellCoree]

I would say that while it is reassuring to hear that the skydiving club has not had any accidents in the past 20 years, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future safety. Skydiving, like any extreme sport, carries inherent risks and it is important to take proper precautions and follow safety protocols.

While it is encouraging that the club has a good track record, it is also important to consider the overall safety regulations and standards in place for skydiving. Are the instructors certified and up-to-date on their training? Is the equipment regularly inspected and maintained? These are all factors that can contribute to the overall safety of the activity.

So, while it is good to know that the club has a good safety record, it is still important to approach the activity with caution and follow all safety guidelines. As a first-time skydiver, it is also important to go through proper training and ask any questions or concerns you may have before jumping. Ultimately, it is up to the individual to assess their own level of comfort and take appropriate measures to ensure their safety.