Simple question about certainty/confidence in astronomy

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In summary, astronomers use a statistical measure called the confidence level to quantify their certainty in their findings. This is typically expressed as a percentage and can be influenced by factors such as the quality and quantity of data, the accuracy of instruments and measurements, and the complexity of the phenomenon being studied. While certainty in astronomy can never be 100%, astronomers use methods such as error bars, statistical analysis, and peer review to account for uncertainty. To increase certainty, astronomers can improve data quality and quantity, use more advanced instruments, collaborate with other scientists, and conduct further research and study.
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cepheid
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In this statement:

"[WMAP data suggest] a lower limit on reionization of z > 6.7 with 3[itex]\sigma[/itex] confidence."

What is the meaning the of the 3-sigma part in this context? See also my other thread here:

https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=261118

Based on the responses there, I still don't quite understand what this sigma business is all about.
 
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What they mean is if the true value were 6.7, and you performed a large number of different measurements, one would expect about 1 in 400 of them to fluctuate to a result at least as extreme as what was measured.
 

FAQ: Simple question about certainty/confidence in astronomy

1. How do astronomers measure certainty or confidence in their findings?

Astronomers use a statistical measure called the confidence level to quantify their certainty in their findings. This is typically expressed as a percentage, with a higher percentage indicating a higher level of confidence.

2. What factors influence the level of certainty in astronomy?

The level of certainty in astronomy can be influenced by a variety of factors, such as the quality and quantity of data, the accuracy of instruments and measurements, and the complexity of the phenomenon being studied.

3. Can certainty in astronomy ever be 100%?

No, it is not possible to achieve 100% certainty in astronomy (or any scientific field for that matter). There is always a small margin of error or uncertainty in any measurement or observation, no matter how precise and accurate it may be.

4. How do astronomers account for uncertainty in their findings?

Astronomers use a variety of methods to account for uncertainty in their findings, such as error bars on graphs, statistical analysis, and peer review. They also strive to replicate their results and consider multiple lines of evidence to increase confidence in their findings.

5. Is there a way to increase certainty in astronomy?

Yes, there are several ways to increase certainty in astronomy. These include improving the quality and quantity of data, using more advanced and accurate instruments, and collaborating with other scientists to confirm and validate findings. Additionally, further research and study can help to refine and improve our understanding of the universe, leading to increased certainty in our knowledge.

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