Solving "Who Dunnit": Calculating Probability of Joshua McCoy's Involvement

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In summary, Zachariah Hatfield has accused Joshua McCoy of hanging two dead rats on his front porch. The sheriff needs to calculate the probability that Joshua McCoy hung the rats on Zachariah Hatfield's front porch in order to determine whether or not to confront him.
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I posted my original "Who Dunnit" on September 6 and got 190 Views amd 0 Responses. I need help solving "Who Dunnit"."Who Dunnit" is a symbolic story that represents a series of events that actually occurred. Two distinct events, A and B, occurred. Events A and B were about a certain person. Events C1 occurred after Event A and C2 occurred after Event B. C1 and C2 were the same action just occurring at two different times. The question in "Who Dunnit" is how do you calculate the probability that the certain person whom events A and B were about committed events C1 and C2. All responses will be greatly appreciated.

Here is "Who Dunnit" :

The Hatfields and McCoys have been feuding longer than anyone can remember. One day while Zacariah Hatfield was out hunting squirrels in the forest, he runs across an active moonshine still. Zachariah is convinced that Joshua McCoy is making moonshine with the still and Zachariah writes a letter to the editor of the local newspaper publicly announcing he found a still in the forest that he alleges belongs to Joshua McCoy. Five days after Zachariah's letter appears in the newspaper, Zachariah discovers a dead rat hanging from the ceiling of his front porch. Zachariah is convinced that Joshua McCoy hung the dead rat on his front porch and reports the incident to the local sheriff accusing Joshua McCoy. Three days after Zachariah talks with the sheriff, he discovers another dead rat hanging from the ceiling of his front porch.

Before the sheriff can confront Joshua McCoy he needs to determine what are the chances both dead rats were a random act by the local hooligans. Can anyone help out the sheriff?

Event A is Zachariah Hatfield writes a letter to the editor of the local newspaper publicly announcing he found a still in the forest that he alleges belongs to Joshua McCoy. Event A is about the certain person, Joshua McCoy.

Event C1 is a dead rat is hung on Zachariah Hatfield's front porch.

Event B is Zachariah Hatfield reports the incident to the local sheriff accusing Joshua McCoy because he is convinced that Joshua McCoy hung the rat on his front porch because Zachariah "ratted" on Joshua. Event B is about the certain person, Joshua McCoy.

Event C2 is a second dead rat is hung on Zachariah Hatfield's front porch.

The sheriff needs to calculate the probability that Joshua McCoy hung both dead rats on Zachariah Hatfield's front porch.
 
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It is impossible to answer this without knowing some basic numerical probabilities that the person will or will not do these things.
 

FAQ: Solving "Who Dunnit": Calculating Probability of Joshua McCoy's Involvement

"What is the purpose of calculating the probability of Joshua McCoy's involvement in a "who dunnit" scenario?"

The purpose of calculating the probability of Joshua McCoy's involvement is to determine the likelihood that he is responsible for the crime. By analyzing the evidence and using mathematical principles, we can assign a numerical value to the likelihood of his involvement, which can aid in the investigation and decision-making process.

"How do you calculate the probability of Joshua McCoy's involvement in a crime?"

To calculate the probability of Joshua McCoy's involvement, we need to gather relevant evidence, such as his alibi, motive, and any physical evidence linking him to the crime scene. We can then use mathematical formulas, such as Bayes' theorem or the Law of Total Probability, to determine the likelihood of his involvement based on the available evidence.

"What are the limitations of using probability to determine Joshua McCoy's involvement in a crime?"

While probability calculations can provide valuable insights, they are not foolproof and have certain limitations. The results are only as accurate as the evidence and assumptions used in the calculations. Additionally, other factors such as human error or unknown variables can affect the accuracy of the results.

"Can probability calculations alone prove Joshua McCoy's guilt or innocence?"

No, probability calculations alone cannot prove Joshua McCoy's guilt or innocence. They are just one piece of evidence that should be considered in conjunction with other factors, such as witness testimonies, physical evidence, and a thorough investigation. Ultimately, the burden of proof lies with the prosecution to prove his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

"What role does a scientist play in "who dunnit" investigations and probability calculations?"

Scientists can play a crucial role in "who dunnit" investigations by providing unbiased analysis and utilizing their knowledge of mathematical principles and statistical analysis. They can assist in gathering and interpreting evidence, as well as using their expertise to calculate the probability of a suspect's involvement. Their input can also be valuable in evaluating the reliability and validity of the evidence and any assumptions made in the calculations.

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