- #1
Jonny_trigonometry
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- 0
Suppose you're a high-powered stock trader in 1946, and you know that there is a lot of 1-2 year olds out there. Would you invest in baby clothes, baby toys, and baby food, or would you invest in cars and airplanes? About 5 years later, would you still invest in baby food, toys, and clothes, or would you start selling your stock after it rose? What would you invest in then? school supplies right (since most 5-7 year olds start going to school then)? what about another 5 years down the line? You'd probably still keep some of the investements in school supplies, but you'd sell the stock in lunchboxes and thermoses and maybe pick up stock in school food service supply companies or something. You'd sell stock in kids clothes and buy stock in teenager clothes, and maybe older kids toys like bikes and baseball gloves. Another 5 years down the line and the baby boomers are about 15-17, now would you invest in baby clothes, toys, and food this time, or would you invest in cars? Of course cars, because the boomers are all learning to drive. What else would you invest in at this point? small companies that hire a bunch of cheap labor like grocery stores, drug stores, and hardware stores? why not, they would do well with all the competing boomers... and so on and so forth.
So, perhaps the economy has done so well since then because there has always been the baby boomer referance to tailor investments. The average age of the population will slowly even out from a sharp distribution to a more shallow distribution curve over time as the baby boom echoes, as each echo is less sharp and less intense. After a while, the population loses the quality of predictable booms of certain age groups and the economy becomes less pridictable, and therefore the stock market loses it's momentum. Hence our current position... What will it take to save our economy from falling? What would those in power (who can create another baby boom if they want to) do to gain more control over the economy again?
Look for more paranoia in the news. If the US is making a case against Iran, I wonder what for? (rhetorical). Iraq wasn't big enough, and wasn't threatening enough... Americans need to be afraid of something in order to be convinced that they all need to go off to war, so expect more paranoia from the administration and in the news. Expect more news about troubles in the middle east, and don't expect the problem to subside, in fact it will escalate to the point where the US is making a case against a "hijacked muslim culture" that must be purged in order to ensure the survival of the world. It will get this bad, and it will get worse to the point where the draft is issued again. Expect more talk about America's vulnerability towards possible terrorist events (all in effort to make americans afraid), and if people aren't afraid enough then, expect another terrorist attack...
I'm no soothsayer, but I have read Machiavelli. Hopefully this whole mess above our heads will go away if we don't let these thoughts bother us.
So, perhaps the economy has done so well since then because there has always been the baby boomer referance to tailor investments. The average age of the population will slowly even out from a sharp distribution to a more shallow distribution curve over time as the baby boom echoes, as each echo is less sharp and less intense. After a while, the population loses the quality of predictable booms of certain age groups and the economy becomes less pridictable, and therefore the stock market loses it's momentum. Hence our current position... What will it take to save our economy from falling? What would those in power (who can create another baby boom if they want to) do to gain more control over the economy again?
Look for more paranoia in the news. If the US is making a case against Iran, I wonder what for? (rhetorical). Iraq wasn't big enough, and wasn't threatening enough... Americans need to be afraid of something in order to be convinced that they all need to go off to war, so expect more paranoia from the administration and in the news. Expect more news about troubles in the middle east, and don't expect the problem to subside, in fact it will escalate to the point where the US is making a case against a "hijacked muslim culture" that must be purged in order to ensure the survival of the world. It will get this bad, and it will get worse to the point where the draft is issued again. Expect more talk about America's vulnerability towards possible terrorist events (all in effort to make americans afraid), and if people aren't afraid enough then, expect another terrorist attack...
I'm no soothsayer, but I have read Machiavelli. Hopefully this whole mess above our heads will go away if we don't let these thoughts bother us.