- #36
- 41,958
- 10,131
Sure, solipsism is a sound philosophy from a logical perspective, but it doesn't get you very far. In the real world, we function quite effectively by subconsciously assigning reasonable a priori probabilities.alan_longor said:ok , then in this case we cannot set a probability for the appearance of the light on the next night .
Your rising sun model is insufficiently divorced from real experience to think about in a detached manner. How about, you notice that on three consecutive occasions the winning lottery number ends in a five. What is the probability that there is a flaw in the randomisation? What probability would you have assigned to that beforehand... one in 100? Too high. One in 10,000? Let's say one in a million. How many consecutive occasions of a final digit 5 will push that estimate to greater than half?