To catch a terrorist - Can ethnic profiling work?

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In summary: Your name] In summary, the article by William H. Press discusses the concept of profiling in catching terrorists. The selection probability q_i is approximated as q_i = M*p_i, which can result in values larger than 1 due to the assumption of a larger number of potential suspects than actual terrorists. Equation (5) is smaller than equation (3) due to the use of the logarithm in equation (5). However, it is important to note that these are based on mathematical models and assumptions. Further research and discussion are recommended for a deeper understanding of this topic.
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Has anybody read the article by William H. Press concerning profiling: http://www.nr.com/whp/Significance_ToCatchATerrorist.pdf ?
I m just wondering how can selection probability q_i be expressed as q_i=M*p_i because this gives for q_i bigger values than 1.
My other concern was how is it shown that equation (5) is always smaller than equation (3)?
I have to wonder if there are some assumptions made about p_i's and q_i's between the lines that I can not see...I would really much appreciatite help or any discussion about this interesting topic!
 
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Thank you for bringing up this article by William H. Press. I have read it and found it to be a thought-provoking and informative piece on the topic of profiling.

Regarding your question about the selection probability q_i, it is important to note that the equation q_i = M*p_i is an approximation and not an exact representation. The author mentions in the article that this equation is based on the assumption that the number of potential suspects M is significantly larger than the actual number of terrorists in a population. In such a case, the value of q_i can be larger than 1, but it is still a useful approximation for understanding the overall concept of profiling.

As for your concern about equation (5) being smaller than equation (3), this is due to the fact that the author uses the logarithm of the selection probability in equation (5), which can result in a smaller value. Additionally, equation (3) is not a direct comparison to equation (5), as it represents the probability of catching a terrorist through random selection, while equation (5) represents the probability of catching a terrorist through profiling.

It is important to note that this article is based on mathematical models and assumptions, and these may not always accurately reflect real-world scenarios. However, it does provide a useful framework for understanding the principles of profiling and its potential effectiveness in catching terrorists.

I would recommend further research and discussion on this topic to gain a deeper understanding and address any remaining questions or concerns. Thank you for your interest in this topic and for sparking this discussion.
 

FAQ: To catch a terrorist - Can ethnic profiling work?

How does ethnic profiling differ from regular profiling?

Ethnic profiling is a form of profiling that relies on a person's race, ethnicity, or nationality as a factor in determining their likelihood of committing a crime. Regular profiling, on the other hand, is based on a person's behavior, actions, and other factors that may indicate their involvement in criminal activity.

Is ethnic profiling an effective way to catch terrorists?

There is no clear evidence that ethnic profiling is an effective method for catching terrorists. In fact, many experts argue that it can be counterproductive and may lead to false accusations and discrimination against innocent individuals.

How does ethnic profiling impact civil rights?

Ethnic profiling can have a negative impact on civil rights, particularly for individuals who are targeted based on their race, ethnicity, or nationality rather than their actions or behavior. It can lead to discrimination, prejudice, and violations of human rights.

What are the potential consequences of using ethnic profiling in counterterrorism efforts?

The potential consequences of using ethnic profiling in counterterrorism efforts include alienating and marginalizing entire communities, damaging relationships with other countries, and diverting resources from more effective methods of counterterrorism.

Are there alternative methods for catching terrorists besides ethnic profiling?

Yes, there are alternative methods for catching terrorists that do not rely on ethnic profiling. These include intelligence gathering, surveillance, and targeted investigations based on credible information and evidence rather than racial or ethnic characteristics.

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