Tracking Hurricane Irma: Potential US Impact in a Week

[MarkFL]

From CNN:

Powerful Hurricane Irma is rapidly intensifying in the open Atlantic and poses a major threat to the Caribbean and potentially to the United States next week. With the storm still five days away from the outermost Caribbean islands and at least a week away from any potential US impacts, there is still a lot of uncertainty about where it will go. The range of possibilities presented by the forecast models more than a week out literally spreads from Mexico to Canada -- and everywhere in between.

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Hurricane Irma is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves westward over the next five days, and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Irma on the doorstep of the Caribbean by the end of the five-day forecast on Wednesday. A strong high-pressure ridge to the north of Irma, over the Atlantic, is steering the storm to the west and limiting the wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which has allowed the storm to grow so quickly. Wind shear is like hurricane kryptonite, and prevents storms from forming or gaining strength.
Unfortunately, Irma will remain in a low-shear environment for the next several days, so there isn't much hope that Irma will weaken any time soon.

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Living on the northern Atlantic coast of Florida, I will be watching this very closely. Forecasters should know a lot more on Monday, and I'll likely post an update then.

 

[MarkFL]

Here are the predictions from two major models as of today:

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[MarkFL]

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[Opalg]

That's not looking too good. I hope you stay safe and dry in Fla.

I'm off on holiday in a few days' time, going to Italy for a week. I hope the weather is better there.

 

[MarkFL]

From CNN:

Hurricane Irma has strengthened into an "extremely dangerous" Category 5 storm, the National Hurricane Center said, threatening to slam into northeastern Caribbean islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday before possibly taking aim at the US mainland.

Irma was churning Tuesday morning in the Atlantic about 270 miles east of Antigua and Barbuda, heading west with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph -- well above the 157 mph threshold for a Category 5 -- the hurricane center said.

"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful Category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days," the center said.
It is still too early to tell the exact impact Irma will have on the United States.

Computer models show the system eventually heading toward Cuba and possibly turning north toward Florida by the weekend. While Irma's exact path is uncertain, several islands in the Caribbean as well as Florida are bracing for the storm. After declaring a state of emergency all across Florida, Gov. Rick Scott said President Donald Trump had "offered the full resources of the federal government as Floridians prepare for Hurricane Irma."

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[MarkFL]

Just wanted to post an update on the spaghetti models:

This is good news for Florida, but bad news for South Carolina...however this is still 5+ days out, so it's still a game of wait and see.

The places it has hit in the Caribbean so far have had it really rough from what early reports are beginning to indicate. Widespread destruction. :(

 

[I like Serena]

Today Irma has hit my country, The Netherlands.
Well... that's the islands Sint-Maarten, Saba, and Sint-Eustatius in the Caribbeans that still belong to my country, although they're pretty much on the other side of the Atlantic. We're sending troops to help out.

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[MarkFL]

From CNN:

The Dutch territories of Saba and Saint Eustatius as well in St Marteen have been “hit hard,” the Dutch PM Mark Rutte said in a statement published on his Facebook page on Thursday.

He said that “terrible first messages and images” are coming from Dutch-held areas in the Caribbean.

The statement continued: “As soon as weather permits, two naval ships from Aruba and Curacao will deliver military and relief supplies, in addition to nearly 100 additional soldiers already present in the affected area. The government is, as far as possible, in contact with the local authorities and continues to follow developments closely."

He ended saying that he and his cabinet members are "living this with the inhabitants of the affected islands" and called on those who have been caught up in the disaster to be strong in the coming hours and days.

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As your local social mediarologist, I just want to say the forecast for my area has gotten better over the last 24 hours, with models generally moving to the east. The maximum sustained wind forecast here is 61 mph.

Here is a recent spaghetti model forecast:

 

[mathdad]

From CNN:

Powerful Hurricane Irma is rapidly intensifying in the open Atlantic and poses a major threat to the Caribbean and potentially to the United States next week. With the storm still five days away from the outermost Caribbean islands and at least a week away from any potential US impacts, there is still a lot of uncertainty about where it will go. The range of possibilities presented by the forecast models more than a week out literally spreads from Mexico to Canada -- and everywhere in between.
Hurricane Irma is forecast to continue to strengthen as it moves westward over the next five days, and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center puts a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Irma on the doorstep of the Caribbean by the end of the five-day forecast on Wednesday. A strong high-pressure ridge to the north of Irma, over the Atlantic, is steering the storm to the west and limiting the wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which has allowed the storm to grow so quickly. Wind shear is like hurricane kryptonite, and prevents storms from forming or gaining strength.
Unfortunately, Irma will remain in a low-shear environment for the next several days, so there isn't much hope that Irma will weaken any time soon.

---

Living on the northern Atlantic coast of Florida, I will be watching this very closely. Forecasters should know a lot more on Monday, and I'll likely post an update then.

How are you? Have you been able to answer math questions? How badly was your area hit by the storm?

 

[MarkFL]

How are you? Have you been able to answer math questions? How badly was your area hit by the storm?

I'm fine...I and my family took measures to be prepared and stay safe. I got my power back early this afternoon. My sister suffered minor damage to her house as some shingles were torn from the roof. My brother-in-law will be able to repair that easily. The only thing I have to deal with is a yard full of tree debris at my house and at my mother's.

There was some bad flooding and some tornadoes that destroyed houses here. The damage was much worse to the south of me. Some folks may be without power for weeks. At the height of the power outage in my county, all but 600 customers were without power. Many lessons were learned with Hurricane Matthew last year, and the utility companies were much better prepared/organized this time. (Yes)

 

[Greg]

Glad to see you're back safe, Mark. Prayers and best wishes to all affected by the storm.