Understanding Conditional Probability: Formulas and Logic Explained

In summary, conditional probability is a concept that involves calculating the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It can be represented using a Venn diagram with the two events as circles, and the shared area representing the probability of both events happening. The formula for conditional probability is P(A|B) = P(AnB)/P(B), where P(A|B) represents the probability of event A happening given that event B has occurred. Drawing out a Venn diagram can help in understanding this concept.
  • #1
Godwin Kessy
91
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Hallow! May anyone please help me on conditional probability i actualy understand how it occurs but the formula? The logic behind it!

ie P(A/B)=P(AnB)/P(B)
 
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  • #2
Hey!

you mean P(A|B) right? P(A/B) could be mistaken for P(A\B) ..the difference.

Anyways, the concept behind this definition (debatably an axiom), is very simple.

Imagine a Venn Diagram with A and B as two circles crossing each other giving rise to a shared mid-section.

P(A) = [outcomes that give event A] divided by [the sample space [tex]\Omega[/tex]] (all possible outcomes)

P(B) = [outcomes that give event B] divided by [the sample space [tex]\Omega[/tex]] (all possible outcomes)

P(AnB) = [outcomes that are SHARED between A and B] divided by [the sample space [tex]\Omega[/tex]] (all possible outcomes)

When they ask you for P(A|B), what they are asking you is:

"what is the probability that A will happen given that we KNOW that B has happened". If we know that the circle B has been chosen the only part of A left that COULD happen is the intersection between A and B that they both share!

Basically: P(A|B) = "what is the probability of A, considering that the ONLY available sample space is now B?"

do you get it now? try and draw it out!
 
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Related to Understanding Conditional Probability: Formulas and Logic Explained

1. What is conditional probability?

Conditional probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is calculated by dividing the probability of the joint occurrence of both events by the probability of the first event.

2. How is conditional probability different from regular probability?

Regular probability considers the likelihood of an event occurring without any prior knowledge or conditions, while conditional probability takes into account the occurrence of another event before calculating the likelihood of the desired event.

3. What are some real-life examples of conditional probability?

One common example of conditional probability is in medical testing. The probability of a person having a disease given a positive test result is an example of conditional probability. Another example is the probability of getting into a car accident given that it is raining outside.

4. How do you calculate conditional probability?

Conditional probability is calculated by dividing the probability of the joint occurrence of two events by the probability of the first event. This can be written as P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / P(B), where A and B are events.

5. What is the relationship between conditional probability and independence?

If two events are independent, then the conditional probability of one event occurring given the other event has occurred is equal to the regular probability of the first event. In other words, the occurrence of one event does not affect the likelihood of the other event occurring, and the conditional probability is the same as the regular probability.

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