What are the odds?

[Hornbein]

Events that are not planned are unlikely, but there are a very great many possible unlikely events.

It is true that computing the probability ignores all the possible coincidences didn't happen at that moment. But I think a study that got some data could shed some light on this Oort cloud of unrealized possibilities. How big is it? That would interest me.

It also could tell us something about the observer. If we assume that everyone experiences the same number of coincidences, then people who notice more coincidences are more observant. And if people don't experience an equal density of coincidences, why not?

 

[jbriggs444]

But I think a study that got some data could shed some light on this Oort cloud of unrealized possibilities. How big is it? That would interest me.

The idea bores me to tears.

Once one defined the quantity that is to be measured carefully enough that it could be measured, it would be a meaningless number. Even worse than the bit rate of human thought.

 

[javisot20]

Let's break down the probability, I'm thinking of a real number, can anyone get it right?

 

[DaveC426913]

Let's break down the probability, I'm thinking of a real number, can anyone get it right?

Is it "not eight"?

 

[javisot20]

Is it "not eight"?

Almost

 

[Ibix]

Almost

At least give us an upper and lower bound. That way there are still as many choices, but it looks more hopeful.

 

[javisot20]

At least give us an upper and lower bound. That way there are still as many choices, but it looks more hopeful.

In some sense that shouldn't help increase the probability of getting it right, but I promise you that it's not difficult to get it right.(I know only a finite number of real numbers)

 

[Hornbein]

Let's break down the probability, I'm thinking of a real number, can anyone get it right?

Pi.

 

[xTheFormlessOnedx]

My famous line goes something like this. 00.01% of the time. Something is going to happen that only happens 00.01% of the time. So when something happens 00.01% of the time, that only happens 00.01% of the time. Try not to be too surprized

 

[javisot20]

Pi.

What was the probability that you would get it right on the first try?

Well, you got it right on the first try. The universe should collapse right now

 

[DaveC426913]

I mean, technically, I got it right on the first try too.

 

[javisot20]

I mean, technically, I got it right on the first try too.

Really on the second attempt, your answer is correct because I did not specify the degree of accuracy, but Hornbein was morally right. Since we are talking about real numbers it is as impressive as if it were the first attempt. It's the most unlikely thing we've ever seen happen.

Even if I had said it was a real number between 3 and 3.3 it shouldn't have been much help. (Asserting that in this case the probability increases would be an example of gambler's fallacy)

I usually ask the same question without offering any upper or lower limit on different forums and in less than 5 tries they have always gotten it right.

 

[DaveC426913]

It's the most unlikely thing we've ever seen happen.

I'd say you're getting just a skosh of help from the List of Interesting Numbers, in which pi is listed as one of a mere dozen or so transcendentals. I'd say most PF members are acquainted with pi.

 

[gmax137]

Yeah, I was thinking $\frac \pi 2$

 

[javisot20]

I'd say you're getting just a skosh of help from the List of Interesting Numbers, in which pi is listed as one of a mere dozen or so transcendentals. I'd say most PF members are acquainted with pi.

Even if it is true, I asked for a real number without specifying any range and it was correct on the second try. It could have been the 8,546477448.. , but it was pi.

(It is clear that if we ask this same question in a primary school the answer will be: what is a real number?)