What do we do when the oil runs low

[MisterX]

The premise of the question is potentially flawed. First we must ask, will oil (or other fossil fuels) run low? The answer seems to be no. There are more fossil fuels than we can exploit without serious, potentially fatal environmental damage.[1] We will have other problems before it happens, to the extent that running out of oil isn't really a concern right now.
The first critical resource that seems due to run out is phosphate rock. It seems this will be depleted hundreds of years before fossil fuels would be (ignoring the problems that using that much fossil fuels would incur).
There's also enough uranium to last at least hundreds of years.

[1] Tokarska, K., Gillett, N., Weaver, A. et al. The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon. Nature Clim Change 6, 851–855 (2016) doi:10.1038/nclimate3036

 

[russ_watters]

The premise of the question is potentially flawed. First we must ask, will oil (or other fossil fuels) run low? The answer seems to be no. There are more fossil fuels than we can exploit without serious, potentially fatal environmental damage.[1] We will have other problems before it happens, to the extent that running out of oil isn't really a concern right now.

That appears to include all fossil fuels, and there is a lot more coal than oil. I know estimates of oil's demise have been overblown for decades, but I have a hard time believing we have more than a hundred years of it left.

I also find apocalyptic predictions difficult to accept; the only other thing that could drastically reduce our fossil fuel use is a large-scale die-off of the human race (1: choice, 2: depletion, 3: apocalypse). And I just don't see even the most dire predictions as capable of causing it.

[edit] Even "apocalypse" won't necessarily curtail oil use if it takes too long/lags the use.

 

[russ_watters]

That appears to include all fossil fuels, and there is a lot more coal than oil. I know estimates of oil's demise have been overblown for decades, but I have a hard time believing we have more than a hundred years of it left.

I should have looked into it before posting that. Here's a source that mixes fossil fuel sources together and suggests that oil availability is much greater than I realized when you include coal-to-oil and oil sands:

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/eme801/node/486
Under this type of model what we would see is cost plateaus that may or may not be high enough to drive choices away from fossil fuels.

 

[davenn]

……………. Certainly a high energy dense fuel is needed is certain areas of the economy, and at a practical price.

Speaking of which, E10 fuel hit AU$1.72 / litre (AU$7 / gallon) this week. that ~ US$5 - 6 / gallon