What is the probability of life on exopanet LHS475b?

[NOSYLA]

Recently the James Webb Telescope discovered an exoplanet 99% the size of Earth. Its name is LHS 475 b. What is the probability that there is life on this planet?

 

[PeroK]

There's no way to calculate a meaningful probability without more information. And without a better understanding of the probability of abiogenesis on an Earth-like planet.

 

[phinds]

Somewhere between 0% and 100%, but likely very close to the zero end.

 

[PeroK]

Somewhere between 0% and 100%, but likely very close to the zero end.

You mean the probability of 1% probability is greater than the probability of 99% probability?

 

[phinds]

You mean the probability of 1% probability is greater than the probability of 99% probability?

By quite a bit, I imagine.

 

[PeroK]

By quite a bit, I imagine.

You mean there's a high probability that the probability of 1% probability is greater than the probability of 99% probability?

I'll stop now!

 

[phinds]

You mean there's a high probability that the probability of 1% probability is greater than the probability of 99% probability?

Probably.

 

[berkeman]

Recently the James Webb Telescope discovered an exoplanet 99% the size of Earth. Its name is LHS 475 b. What is the probability that there is life on this planet?

Since you didn't supply a link to the information, and I'm too lazy to go searching for it right now, did the article say if the planet is likely in the Goldilocks Zone of its star?

 

[FactChecker]

Since you didn't supply a link to the information, and I'm too lazy to go searching for it right now, did the article say if the planet is likely in the Goldilocks Zone of its star?

That's a very good point, but I'm still not sure that it is enough to answer the question.

 

[berkeman]

I'm still not sure that it is enough to answer the question.

True, but if it's not in the GZ, that would preclude most forms of life that we have experience with...

 

[phinds]

The researchers have also confirmed that LHS 475 b maintains a tidal-locked orbit with its star of just two days — far too close to attempt with Sol but, because LHS circles a red dwarf that's producing less than half of our sun's energy, can theoretically maintain an atmosphere.

 

[berkeman]

Hmm, tidally locked and one side is too hot and one side is too cold. Kind of re-defines the meaning of the Goldilocks Zone (into a ring around the planet)...

 

[phinds]

Hmm, tidally locked and one side is too hot and one side is too cold. Kind of re-defines the meaning of the Goldilocks Zone (into a ring around the planet)...

Huh. I read that and the first thing I thought of was that the planet must have spent too much time in the bathtub.

I have GOT to stop listening to my brain.

 

[Baluncore]

Recently the James Webb Telescope discovered an exoplanet 99% the size of Earth.

What is the orbital period and predicted surface temperature of that planet ?

Wikipedia says:
"Assuming the planet has little to no atmosphere, its dayside temperature is estimated at 748 K (475 °C; 887 °F). The planet completes an orbit around its star in just two days and is likely tidally locked."
There is very little chance of life at those temperatures.

 

[Vanadium 50]

While I agree an exact numerical probability is meaningless, the probability is very very low.

• No detected atmoshere
• Too hot
• Likely tidally locked (maybe a 3:2 would improve this)
• Sun likely to be a flare star.

It would not be high on my list of a place to look.

 

[snorkack]

While I agree an exact numerical probability is meaningless, the probability is very very low.

• No detected atmoshere
• Too hot
• Likely tidally locked (maybe a 3:2 would improve this)

No - make it worse.
In terms of equivalent radiation, the distance of LHS 475 b to star is about 0,21 AU (In terms of distance, 0,0206). Compare Mercury 0,31 to 0,47 AU, and Venus 0,72 AU.
Venus has a dense atmosphere - 90 bar at surface. The result is that although Venus has axial tilt of just 2,64 degrees, the dense atmosphere efficiently carries heat to poles and night side - the temperature difference between dayside and poles is said to be around 5 C, so poles are still heated to 450 C, cooking everything alive anywhere on Venus.
Mercury has axial tilt of just 2 minutes, and tenuous atmosphere. Since Mercury is in 3:2 resonance, obviously the tropics of Mercury are cooked daily. How cold are poles of Mercury?

If you have a tidally locked planet which is more massive than Mercury and with a tenuous atmosphere significantly denser than Mercury but much less dense than Venus, could you have a chemical cycle between the near side and the coolness of dark side/poles and rest of terminator?
Like Boudouard reaction:
in the heat of near side:
C+CO₂>2CO driven by entropy of CO, stores up enthalpy
on the coolness of dark side the direct opposite reaction
2CO>C+CO₂
would be kinetically slow and need a catalyst; instead you might have the enthalpy exploited by biological catalysts:
2CO+H₂O>CH₂O+CO₂
This of course is not yet a closed cycle. Do you get the idea of thermal gradient supporting chemical disequilibrium? Any proposed cycles which would close as a full cycle?