What Is the Probability That a Bridge Is Empty at Noon?

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In summary, POTW #419 is about calculating the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon. This involves considering factors such as the location and size of the bridge, population density, and time of day. The importance of this calculation lies in its practical and theoretical applications, and while the probability can never be 100%, it can approach it in certain scenarios.
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anemone
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Here is this week's POTW:

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It takes 5 minutes to cross a certain bridge and 1000 people cross it in a day of 12 hours, all times of day being equally likely. Find the probability that there will be nobody on the bridge at noon.

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Congratulations to castor28 for his correct solution (and special thanks to his other approach to solve the same problem worded slightly different than the original one(Cool)), which you can find below:

Solution from castor28:
The bridge will be empty at noon if no visitors arrive between 11:55 and noon (assuming that interval is included in the opening hours).

There are $144$ intervals of $5$ minutes in the 12-hours period. The probability that none of the $1000$ visitors arrive in that interval is therefore $\left(\dfrac{143}{144}\right)^{1000}\approx 0.00094090411913581$.

We may also consider the slightly different problems of a continuous process where visitors arrive at an average rate of $1000/144\approx 6.944\ldots$ visitors per 5 minutes. In that case, the probability is given by the Poisson distribution and is equal to $e^{-\frac{1000}{144}}\approx 0.000963975725734177$. This is a slightly different value; this comes from the fact that the number of visitors on a single day will not necessarily be exactly equal to $1000$, unlike in the original problem.
 

FAQ: What Is the Probability That a Bridge Is Empty at Noon?

1. What is the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon?

The probability of no one being on a bridge at noon is dependent on various factors such as location, weather, and day of the week. It is not possible to accurately determine the probability without specific information about these factors.

2. How can probability be used to calculate the chances of no one being on a bridge at noon?

Probability can be used to calculate the chances of no one being on a bridge at noon by considering the total number of people who could potentially be on the bridge at that time and the likelihood of each individual not being on the bridge. This can be expressed as a fraction or percentage to determine the probability.

3. What are some factors that could affect the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon?

Some factors that could affect the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon include the location of the bridge, the weather conditions, and the day of the week. Other factors such as holidays, events, and time of year may also play a role.

4. Can the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon be 100%?

In theory, the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon could be 100%, but in reality, it is highly unlikely. There may always be a small chance that someone could be on the bridge at that time, even if it is a remote location with no scheduled events or activities.

5. How can understanding the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon be useful?

Understanding the probability of no one being on a bridge at noon can be useful in various situations, such as planning events or activities on a bridge, estimating traffic flow, or analyzing the safety and security of a bridge. It can also be used to make informed decisions about the best time to visit a bridge for a peaceful and uncrowded experience.

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