annab said:If I have a starting population of 200 people with an average life expectancy of 35 and a yearly growth rate of .10, what will my population be in 1,000 years?
Could it be that the answer depends on how the survival time is assumed to be distributed?annab said:with an average life expectancy of 35
annab said:Joppy
I haven’t made any progress on this problem, I don’t know where to start.
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Krylov
I don’t understand, can you explain the possible distributions to me and show me how to do it?
tkhunny said:Average Lifetime of 35 years:
1) 1/2 die immediately and 1/2 die in 70 years.
2) Everyone lives exactly 35 years.
3) Deaths occur uniformly between 25 and 45 -- ~20 per year.
4) Infinitely many other possibilities.
We are told the ORIGINAL population has an average lifetime of 35 years. We are not told ANYTHING about those joining the group. If joining the group is defined as a birth process, it is very unlikely to support the assumption that new entrants have the same life expectancy as the original population.
More information or let's state the assumptions!
No objection. As long as we know its an ASSUMPTION. There is NOTHING in the problem statement that demands that it be so. We should also be careful not to conflate mortality rates with future life expectation. Since we are given expected future lifetime, we may have jumped a bridge inadvertently.I like Serena said:My interpretation: it just means that on average 1 person in 35 dies every year.
I believe the actual age distribution is not really relevant. And without information saying otherwise we should assume that the death rate is constant.
The population in 1,000 years will be influenced by a variety of factors such as advancements in technology, changes in reproductive patterns, availability of resources, and potential natural disasters.
It is difficult to predict with certainty, but it is likely that the population growth will slow down due to factors such as increased education and access to birth control methods, as well as potential limitations on resources.
Climate change is a significant concern for the future population as it can lead to displacement of populations, changes in food production, and potential conflicts over resources. However, it is challenging to predict the exact impact it will have on the population in 1,000 years.
It is widely accepted that there is a limit to the Earth's carrying capacity, but it is difficult to determine what that limit is. Various factors such as technological advancements, changes in consumption patterns, and sustainable resource management could potentially increase the Earth's carrying capacity for humans.
To ensure a sustainable and balanced population for the future, it is crucial to address issues such as access to education, healthcare, and resources. Additionally, implementing sustainable practices and promoting responsible reproduction can also help maintain a healthy population for the future.