What's going on with the COVID cases in Alabama?

[Mike S.]

TL;DR Summary

Marengo County reports a 450% increase in Covid cases in the past week. WHY?

The CDC reports a 450% increase in Covid cases in Marengo County, Alabama ( https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...cases=new_cases_week_over_week_percent_change ). The same thing is visible on New York Times with nice little graphs that show increases in a few other counties bordering on the north, but you have to set your browser to block cookies from their site to read it. ( https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html )

There are also sharp increases in two adjacent small counties in South Dakota, but that is very few actual people and probably doesn't mean much. Still, the last time I noticed a few "colonies on the petri dish" like this was right before Omicron was announced. Just sayin'. So I'm curious what the reason for this data is, and whether the increase in cases is real or a statistical artifact.

 

[berkeman]

Summary:: Marengo County reports a 450% increase in Covid cases in the past week. WHY?

The CDC reports a 450% increase in Covid cases in Marengo County, Alabama ( https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...cases=new_cases_week_over_week_percent_change ). The same thing is visible on New York Times with nice little graphs

It must be a tiny little county; it doesn't even show up as a dark blue spot on the US Map. And the NY Times article apparently wants me to sign up for something to read the article, so no thanks. Can you post some screenshots (PDF or JPEG) of what you are seeing? Thanks.

 

[Mike S.]

Marengo County is small - only 20,000 people. However, it is part of a larger blob of blue on the CDC map - for example, Greene County says 288% increase, to match Marengo's now 525%. The image doesn't seem very impressive because the color isn't proportional to the increase past a small range, though I see there are state-level statistical artifacts in the data now. New York Times shows curves for most of the high-incidence counties in Kentucky and Tennessee that are flat. (Pointe Coupee Parish, Louisiana now also has a sharp spike now, which wasn't there yesterday)

As I said, for New York Times you have to set your browers to block cookies - simply set it to block cookies from nytimes.com - and then you can read most of the articles there, and the ones you can't are fluff not worth reading anyway. It doesn't make any sense, but it's been a long time since things made sense.

 

[Astronuc]

Summary:: Marengo County reports a 450% increase in Covid cases in the past week. WHY?

So I'm curious what the reason for this data is, and whether the increase in cases is real or a statistical artifact.

It could represent a real increase in cases/deaths and possibly magnified by how current period is compared to a previous period, in which a high number is reported following a low number. All it takes for a large increase is a single super-spreader event in which a large number of people gather (possibly indoors) with one or persons infected. Or statistically, if one place went from 1 cases 5, 6, 7, . . . cases, then that would represent a substantial increase if one would report by %, or say from 2 to 9 cases (=450%), or if one considers the difference, going from 2 to 11, where 9 is an increase of 450%.

https://usafacts.org/visualizations...pread-map/state/alabama/county/marengo-county

 

[OmCheeto]

Summary:: Marengo County reports a 450% increase in Covid cases in the past week. WHY?

The CDC reports a 450% increase in Covid cases in Marengo County, Alabama ( https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...cases=new_cases_week_over_week_percent_change ). The same thing is visible on New York Times with nice little graphs that show increases in a few other counties bordering on the north, but you have to set your browser t o block cookies from their site to read it. ( https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html )

There are also sharp increases in two adjacent small counties in South Dakota, but that is very few actual people and probably doesn't mean much. Still, the last time I noticed a few "colonies on the petri dish" like this was right before Omicron was announced. Just sayin'. So I'm curious what the reason for this data is, and whether the increase in cases is real or a statistical artifact.

Today they show a 862% change in the last week. Looking at the historical graph, Marengo county had a reduction in cases per week for the previous 3 week periods, so this may be a reconciliation. Alabamas most populous county, Jefferson, had a larger change mid-May last year of 930%. So population doesn't appear to be a factor.

Looking through weekly changes for all the counties of Alabama for the entire pandemic shows that 18 counties had larger increases.

As to why there are these spikes in cases, my guess is that it's caused by the logistical problems of collecting, logging, and presenting the data.

Source of data: Johns Hopkins University: time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Today they show a 862% change in the last week. Looking at the historical graph, Marengo county had a reduction in cases per week for the previous 3 week periods, so this may be a reconciliation. Alabamas most populous county, Jefferson, had a larger change mid-May last year of 930%. So population doesn't appear to be a factor.

I don't find the % change graph so useful, and find it more useful to plot the number of cases instead. Here's the CDC data for Marengo County:

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...labama&data-type=Risk&list_select_county=1091

Clearly, Marengo County is experiencing a second surge of cases and the intensity of the surge is similar to the Omicron peak experienced in mid Jan.

 

[OmCheeto]

I don't find the % change graph so useful, and find it more useful to plot the number of cases instead. Here's the CDC data for Marengo County:
View attachment 297385
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...labama&data-type=Risk&list_select_county=1091

Clearly, Marengo County is experiencing a second surge of cases and the intensity of the surge is similar to the Omicron peak experienced in mid Jan.

Well, looking at that set of data, I would agree. But going to the Alabama Public Health site, you get a different picture:

Quite ordinary looking. No second surge. Looks similar to every other county in Alabama for the period.reference: https://alpublichealth.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7
Tab 6

 

[Mike S.]

I should say thanks for the replies (and sorry for bumping the thread - I don't see how to just edit my first post to call it off). Now even the New York Times data shows a rapid return to 'normalcy' in the area, so it must just have been some pent-up data.