Who Will Win the Elections? Predictions and Analysis

[rootX]

No who should win .. but just a simple question who will and let's see who gets it right!

I am still bit confused. I was going to bet on Romney but Sandy complicated things a bit.

 

[lisab]

If this thread gets political it will have to be moved to the dark side !

I say Obama will win, but it will be soooooo close.

 

[leroyjenkens]

I'd be surprised if Romney won. Though, so far I've seen a surprising amount of support for him.

 

[Evo]

Political elections do go in P&WA.

 

[rootX]

I'd be surprised if Romney won. Though, so far I've seen a surprising amount of support for him.

I don't know what you mean. This race looks quite close. I don't know latest poll but Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked. I am bit more on betting Romney to win than Obama.

 

[russ_watters]

It looks like a toss-up right now. I want Romney to win, but I don't have a strong feeling either way about whether or not he will. I'm going to hold off on voting in this poll for now.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

I think Obama. Still not sure who I am voting for. I don't like either.

 

[russ_watters]

Rootx, I was thinking of starting a thread analyzing some of the major media polls to discuss what they are predicting. Would you mind if I posted that kind of thing in your thread?

 

[rootX]

Rootx, I was thinking of starting a thread analyzing some of the major media polls to discuss what they are predicting. Would you mind if I posted that kind of thing in your thread?

Since, this is already moved into PW&A so feel free to get deeper into this topic

I was also going to thinking of bringing the polls data to show Romney is not behind Obama.

 

[SHISHKABOB]

I'm not sure I understand how Sandy could have affected Obama's chances at the election? Did he say something about the storm that people didn't like, or did he do something that people didn't like and it had something to do with the storm?

 

[Astronuc]

I don't know what you mean. This race looks quite close. I don't know latest poll but Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked. I am bit more on betting Romney to win than Obama.

I've seen Romney ahead by 1 or 2 and I've seem Obama ahead by 2. It's close.

Some jobs numbers come out tomorrow, and unemployment may have ticked up a bit.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/danbigm...ows-some-unexpected-strength-in-labor-market/

Sandy certainly has complicated matters in NY and NJ. It's not clear what influence it will have the further from the area folks live.

 

[rootX]

I'm not sure I understand how Sandy could have affected Obama's chances at the election? Did he say something about the storm that people didn't like, or did he do something that people didn't like and it had something to do with the storm?

Yes, he handled it quite good. One example: "Gov Christie has praised Mr Obama's response to the storm as "outstanding"."

But, here's the poll data:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19415745
It's precisely coin tossing thing right now IMO.

 

[jtbell]

Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked.

Remember, it's not the national popular vote total that counts. Ask Al Gore.

 

[Tosh5457]

Even if the polls show they're tied, I think Obama has an advantage. Many people on the left who'll vote for Jill Stein or any other independent will vote for Obama if they see that the polls show a tie. On the other hand, on the right, I don't see libertarians voting on Mitt Romney over Gary Johnson...

 

[Astronuc]

Yes, he handled it quite good. One example: "Gov Christie has praised Mr Obama's response to the storm as "outstanding"."

But, here's the poll data:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19415745
It's precisely coin tossing thing right now IMO.

And Michael Bloomberg (mayor of New York City) endorsed Obama.

Yet the race is for the most part a statistical dead heat.

Many may vote for Romney because he's not Obama.

 

[Pythagorean]

I predict Obama will win. With The Economist, Christie, and Bloomberg backing him, and his performance in the last debate, he has a lot of momentum going his way right before the election.

 

[ParticleGrl]

Russ- the work of poll aggregation has been done for you-

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ is probably the most famous, but these guys at my alma mater also do poll aggregation http://election.princeton.edu/

 

[Angry Citizen]

The news media loves a horserace, and they've got y'all believing it's going to come down to the wires. It won't. The height of Romney's post-Denver bounce was enough to put him almost neck and neck with Obama. The bounce has since receded dramatically. Obama's "firewall" in Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will win him the day.

Romney will literally have to sweep the remaining swing states to eke out a victory, plus steal one from the firewall, and that's just not going to happen. The only swing state showing him up at this point is North Carolina, and there are some encouraging numbers from the early voting polls to show that NC may be closer than the polls indicate.

Obama will win, and he will likely win with around 300 EV's or more. Florida is a tossup, and it's the only reason why I'm not predicting a ~330 Obama victory. I also highly recommend not citing national polls when attempting prognostication. The auto bailout has seemingly kept the midwest firewall intact, while the Republican enthusiasm (especially in deep red states) will likely allow Romney to keep the national vote close or even going in his favor. I suspect a split between the EV winner and PV winner is much more likely than people imagine, but I'm not willing to make that prediction.

At this point, I'm most interested in Virginia. If it goes Democrat again, and I think there's a serious chance it will, then it can be said that 2008 was the start of a new political landscape that will be very bad for Republicans. Virginia going blue twice is as bad for Republicans as Pennsylvania going red twice would be for Democrats. It represents a serious breach in their otherwise-solid wall of the old Confederacy. The ramifications for 2016 are immense. Unless the Republicans can find a way to escape the trap of appealing only to WASPs, 2008 and 2012 will be the harbingers of their doom.

 

[phinds]

I predict Obama will win. With The Economist, Christie, and Bloomberg backing him, and his performance in the last debate, he has a lot of momentum going his way right before the election.

Approximately .02% (that two hundredths of one percent) of Americans read The Economist. Why would you think that matters?

 

[Pythagorean]

Approximately .02% (that two hundredths of one percent) of Americans read The Economist. Why would you think that matters?

I don't read the economist but I heard about, and can recognize the social impact of, an endorsement from a magazine called The Economist in a time when the economy is a political topic.

 

[Mentalist]

I've posted many critiques of Obama in earlier posts, but I do want him to win this election. I don't see Romney being a competent and trustworthy leader.

When not taking the popular vote into the analysis, Obama is sure to win the electoral vote.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

 

[Pythagorean]

I predict Obama will win. With The Economist, Christie, and Bloomberg backing him, and his performance in the last debate, he has a lot of momentum going his way right before the election.

Romney lying/gaffing about Jeep in Ohio, the battleground state, and home to a Jeep factory, probably wasn't a good idea either. And of course Dems are not letting Romney get away with his past statements that had strong implications for ditching FEMA in the wake of hurricane Sandy.

I really think it's over for Romney.

 

[Gokul43201]

I don't know what you mean. This race looks quite close. I don't know latest poll but Romney was one or two points above Obama last time I checked. I am bit more on betting Romney to win than Obama.

You've been looking at the wrong polling numbers. We do not use a popular vote in the US. The realclearpolitics electoral map has always had Obama winning. In their map with tossups Romney enjoyed a single digit electoral lead for a 3 day period a couple weeks ago and that was it.

 

[Angry Citizen]

You've been looking at the wrong polling numbers. We do not use a popular vote in the US. The realclearpolitics electoral map has always had Obama winning. In their map with tossups Romney enjoyed a single digit electoral lead for a 3 day period a couple weeks ago and that was it.

And note that RCP at the time considers anything with an aggregate polling advantage of less than 5.5% to be a "toss up". Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which are practically guaranteed for Obama, were at or around 4 to 5%. With those states included, Obama has a 57 point advantage with 253 votes. It takes 270 to win. He wins Ohio? Game over. He wins Florida? Game over. He wins Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and New Hampshire? Game over. He wins Virginia and any other state? Game over. Romney, on the other hand, must go from 191 points to 270. Even giving him Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, he's still not winning, at 258. The election is Obama's, pure and simple.

 

[Gokul43201]

Russ- the work of poll aggregation has been done for you-

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ is probably the most famous, but these guys at my alma mater also do poll aggregation http://election.princeton.edu/

Here's another:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

 

[Gokul43201]

Even giving him Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, he's still not winning, at 258.

Romney need to win FL, OH and one other state. VA or CO are the ones within closest reach, I think. Giving each of these states a 50% probability puts Romney at about a 19% chance of winning. And that's just a crude estimate, but even just stipulating FL and OH as requirements sets the upper bound near 25% for Romney.

 

[Angry Citizen]

If I did my head math right, Colorado would not be enough to secure him victory. He would need one other state on top of FL, OH, and CO.

 

[George Jones]

Am I allowed to vote ...

in this poll?

 

[Astronuc]

Am I allowed to vote ...

in this poll?

Only for the "Leader of the Free World" or "Most Powerful Man on Earth"!

 

[Gokul43201]

If I did my head math right, Colorado would not be enough to secure him victory. He would need one other state on top of FL, OH, and CO.

You may be right - it's hard to do this over a phone. But in any case, I don't think it changes the numbers very much, you still end up with something near the 20% mark. I wonder what Intrade is currently going at.

 

[Angry Citizen]

You may be right - it's hard to do this over a phone. But in any case, I don't think it changes the numbers very much, you still end up with something near the 20% mark. I wonder what Intrade is currently going at.

67% Obama. And according to Nate Silver, those are bullish odds for Romney versus the other betting sites. Your prediction is also what Silver has to offer, an 80.9% chance of an Obama victory (likely to increase tonight by another couple points given the good set of polls released today).

 

[CAC1001]

At this point, I'm most interested in Virginia. If it goes Democrat again, and I think there's a serious chance it will, then it can be said that 2008 was the start of a new political landscape that will be very bad for Republicans. Virginia going blue twice is as bad for Republicans as Pennsylvania going red twice would be for Democrats. It represents a serious breach in their otherwise-solid wall of the old Confederacy. The ramifications for 2016 are immense. Unless the Republicans can find a way to escape the trap of appealing only to WASPs, 2008 and 2012 will be the harbingers of their doom.

Any time Republicans lose, we hear about the supposed end of the Republican party, but it doesn't happen. I don't get the idea that Republicans only appeal to WASP's though. I think it's more just that other ethnicities tend to vote Democratic party in larger numbers.

 

[rootX]

Another twist to the race
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltCIEbLMaQg

 

[mheslep]

Which pollster was closest on the 2008 P. election? Let's see. Spread was 6.2 (popular vote). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.htmla couple days prior, and both had a very low 2.0 MoE.

Most recent:
Rasmussen: dead even, 48:48
Pew: dead even, 47:47

I hope the replacement refs don't have to call this one.

Also:
ABC/WaPo, Gallup, NPR - Romney
CBS/NYT/, NJ, IBD/TIPP, Politico - Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

[Angry Citizen]

Which pollster was closest on the 2008 P. election? Let's see. Spread was 6.2 (popular vote). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.htmla couple days prior.

Most recent:
Rasmussen: dead even, 48:48
Pew: dead even, 47:47

ABC/WaPo, Gallup, NPR - Romney
CBS/NYT/, NJ, IBD/TIPP, Politico - Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Hope everybody carefully punched their chads in Florida.

But Ras was off by 2 or 3 on Ohio, and they show Ohio roughly tied. The PV doesn't matter.