Who will win the popular vote and by what margin?

[LowlyPion]

My guesses were luckier than I knew.

I missed 2 states - 1 by about 9Kvotes and the other by about 26K votes and I missed the margin total by 29K votes. Both won by Obama.

I suppose my best claim can say that Obama got 29K more voters out than I was guessing and I am more than pleased to have missed in that direction for the sake of the country.

The New York Times has an intriguing map that shows the Δ vote % between 2008 and 2004. It is a most revealing country wide map. If I were to guess where race may have made a difference ...

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Check out Voting Shifts.

The other views are interesting as well, but the Voting Shifts shows how across the board he changed things.

 

[lisab]

My guesses were luckier than I knew.

I missed 2 states - 1 by about 9Kvotes and the other by about 26K votes and I missed the margin total by 29K votes. Both won by Obama.

I suppose my best claim can say that Obama got 29K more voters out than I was guessing and I am more than pleased to have missed in that direction for the sake of the country.

The New York Times has an intriguing map that shows the Δ vote % between 2008 and 2004. It is a most revealing country wide map. If I were to guess where race may have made a difference ...

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Check out Voting Shifts.

The other views are interesting as well, but the Voting Shifts shows how across the board he changed things.

Wow - once you're on Voting Shifts, slide the year around...love that blue!

 

[Gokul43201]

The thing I found particularly interesting in those maps is how much, it appears, that Arkansans love the Clinton family. The red all over Arkansas (compared to 2004) seems most likely explained by disappointment and anger over the Clinton primary loss causing Dems there to vote for McCain or abstain.

 

[LowlyPion]

The thing I found particularly interesting in those maps is how much, it appears, that Arkansans love the Clinton family. The red all over Arkansas (compared to 2004) seems most likely explained by disappointment and anger over the Clinton primary loss causing Dems there to vote for McCain or abstain.

That is a good point. It would be interesting to compare those numbers to Clinton elections even. I'm sure that Clinton did better than Kerry and Gore there - without looking I think he won them and Gore and Kerry not. But that the shift would be even to more than Bush there for McCain must be saying something. And maybe disappointment about Hilary is it, but she's a New Yorker now so I don't really know how devoted to her they might still be. Though as far as that goes I think she would have won it in the general election if she had been the nominee.

 

[check]

Other prediction (just for fun/bragging rights): Voter turnout will be 61%.

Well, at least I got that right.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...turnout-same-or-only-slightly-higher-than-04/