Who Will Win the US Presidential Election?

[cragwolf]

Feel free to add to this thread your predictions for the US presidential election. Here's mine:

Bush: ID (4), MT (3), UT (5), WY (3), NV (5), AZ (10), NM (5), CO (9), ND (3), SD (3), NE (5), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34), LA (9), AR (6), MD (11), IA (7), MN (10), WI (10), MS (6), IN (11), KY (8), TN (11), AL (9), GA (15), SC (8), FL (27), NC (15), WV (5), VA (13), NH (4), AK (3), OH (20).

Total: 310

Kerry: WA (11), OR (7), CA (55), IL (21), MI (17), PA (21), NY (31), DC (3), MD (10), DE (3), NJ (15), CT (7), RI (4), MA (12), VT (3), ME (4), HI (4).

Total: 228

 

[Gokul43201]

Bush: ID (4), MT (3), UT (5), WY (3), NV (5), AZ (10), NM (5), CO (4), ND (3), SD (3), NE (5), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34), LA (9), MD (11), IA (7), WI (10), MS (6), IN (11), KY (8), TN (11), AL (9), GA (15), SC (8), FL (27), NC (15), WV (5), VA (13), NH (4), AK (3).

Total: 269

Kerry: WA (11), OR (7), CA (55), MN (10), IL (21), MI (17), PA (21), NY (31), DC (3), MD (10), DE (3), NJ (15), CT (7), RI (4), MA (12), VT (3), ME (4), HI (4), CO(5), AR (6), OH (20).

Total: 269

 

[graphic7]

Nader: 300 electoral. If Nader does receieve 300 electoral votes, who cares about the spread?

 

[onegermanbeerglass]

- Re-Post -
Bush:
AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NM, NV, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI

Kerry:
CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME (all), MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WV, and of course DC

Results: 296 to 242, Bush (292:246 CO:VI see below)

States in contention and why I predict this way:

CO: Bush will take by 8-12 points, but the voter initiative will probably pass, so the votes would be split 5/4.

FL: Polls averaged give Bush about 2 points, less 1 for the unreachables and the few undecided, still give FL to Bush by about 1%.

IA & NM: Bush will take it by at least 3%.

WI: Kerry would have WI by 1-2% if not for Nader, who will shift 1-2 points to Bush, giving Bush 2-3 points, less 1-2 from the unreachable and undecided. I'm predicted WI goes to Bush by less than 1%.

OH: Could actually go either way, I think Bush will take OH by about 1% or less when its all counted, but it could go to Kerry. If this is my only mistake (and it's the only one I wouldn't bet on) the EC still goes to Bush, 276:262 (272:266 CO:VI see above).

MN & MI: Kerry will take by about 2-3 points after factoring the unreachable/undecided.

ME & NH: because Kerry will take the whole northeast, no question there.

HI, PA, OR: Kerry will take by at least 6 points.

I predict Bush in the initial results. Legal cases may change that outcome.


Also, my other prediction:

Barring intervention from the Supreme Court, the final results will be know Dec. 28th.

 

[BobG]

Initial vote tally: Bush 267, Kerry 251 with Ohio too close to call the morning after. Bush wins close contest in Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Biggest surprise is in Colorado where Kerry rides to victory on the coattails of the Senate election where an experienced Salazar faced off against a "why is this guy here?" candidate in Pete Coors. Unfortunately, Amendment 36 also passes, meaning Colorado's electoral votes split 5 for Kerry and 4 for Bush pushing Bush's total to 271 regardless of Ohio. Both the Ohio result and the Colorado amendment wind up in Supreme Court. Details at 11...

No, actually the Amendment won't pass and, while statewide Democrats certainly do better than they have in the past, I don't think Colorado flips Democratic in this election (well, except for the Senate race - in a state chock full of Republicans, we couldn't find a real candidate?)

Election hinges on Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida and New Mexico.

Bush: AL(9), AK(3), AZ(10), AR(6), CO(9), FL(27), GA(15), ID(4), IN(11), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MS(6), MO(11), MT(3), NE(5), NV(5), NM(5), NC(15), ND(3), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), WV(5), WI(10), WY(3)

Kerry: WA(11), VT(3), PA(21), OR(7), OH(20), NY(31), NJ(15), NH(4), MN(10), MI(17), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), IA(7), IL(21), HI(4), DC(3), DE(3), CT(7), CA(55), and the little state with the big name, Rhode Island and Providence Plantation(4).

Final Tally: 269-269.

Bush sits with 42 contested electoral votes. Kerry sits with 27 contested votes. If either candidate wins both Ohio and Florida, election is won. A split of those two means it's going to be real close, but Kerry has advantage - he can win with Wisconsin or (NM and Iowa) - Bush has to have Wisconsin and still isn't guaranteed of winning it outright. New Mexico slides Democratic, again and Kerry wins 274-264.

 

[onegermanbeerglass]

Iowa's not a swing state anymore, it's now consistantly out of the margin of error in favor of Bush, just like Pennsylvania is for Kerry.

Also, just to point out, a tie is probably a Bush win, as it goes to the house and control of the house will be roughly 54% Republican at that point.

 

[wasteofo2]

There are way too many states that will be too close to call until their votes are actually counted, and there will probabally be a few states whose votes aren't even counted properly anyway.

My prediction: Kerry becomes President, but Bush wins the popular vote.

Oh, how very sweet the irony would be

 

[Moonbear]

My prediction:
Kerry: WA, OR, CA, IL, ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA, NY, HI
swing states - MI, OH, MN, NM

Bush: AK, ID, MT, WY, UT, AZ, ND, SD, NE, KS, CO, OK, TX, LA, MO, IN, KY, VA, NC, SC, TN, MS, AL, GA
swing states - WI, IA, AK, NV

Could go either way: FL, WV (current polls suggest WV is leaning Bush, so likely will go to Bush, but I have a gut feeling WV might surprise us).

I think it's going to come back to a FL recount fiasco for the win.

 

[check]

http://www.race2004.net/contestcover.php here's a free contest you can enter which is basically asking the same thing as this thread. You can also see the results of the people who have entered. Looks like the most popular spread is
Kerry: 311 Bush: 227 which is what I ended up picking.

I think:
Bush: Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Arizona (10), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34),Utah (5), Wyoming (3)
Total: 227

Kerry: Florida (27), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin (10), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Washington (11),California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3),Illinois (21), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3)
Total: 311

And Amendment 36 in Colorado will fail.
The winner in Maine will sweep all four electoral votes.

 

[Waterdog]

- Re-Post -
Bush:
AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NM, NV, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WI

Kerry:
CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME (all), MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WV, and of course DC

Results: 296 to 242, Bush (292:246 CO:VI see below)

States in contention and why I predict this way:

CO: Bush will take by 8-12 points, but the voter initiative will probably pass, so the votes would be split 5/4.

FL: Polls averaged give Bush about 2 points, less 1 for the unreachables and the few undecided, still give FL to Bush by about 1%.

The polls in Colorado show it pretty much dead even, have been for quite a while.

Re/ your Florida comment, in a race featuring a well-defined incumbent, what is most important to look at is usually not the spread between the candidates but where the incumbent is at. Over 50% is safe, 49% is okay, 48% is in danger, 47% or lower is in big trouble. If you look at the poll numbers either for most states or for the national popular vote, you will generally see Kerry's numbers fluctuating a lot while Bush's stay relatively consistent. I say "usually" because as we saw in 2000 (when most of the polls had Bush winning the popular vote, with one prominent poll putting him at 52% in October) these polls do not always predict the actual vote all that accurately. A lot of people make up or change their minds in the voting booths, and turnout is a huge variable. But the poll numbers for the incumbent is much more stable and a better predictor of what the final vote will be than are the numbers for the challenger--so "spread" is not so important as one might think.

 

[Political Prodigy]

Everyone has NY as a Kerry state, however I think it may be one of the more trivial states. I could be wrong, but although both senators are democrats, Governor Pataki is a republican and has been in office for over 10 years and many people are still happy with him. Its possible he will go for a fourth term.

Anyway, you are most likely right but I just thought I would point out the (small) possibility

 

[wasteofo2]

Everyone has NY as a Kerry state, however I think it may be one of the more trivial states. I could be wrong, but although both senators are democrats, Governor Pataki is a republican and has been in office for over 10 years and many people are still happy with him. Its possible he will go for a fourth term.

Anyway, you are most likely right but I just thought I would point out the (small) possibility

There's a HUGE difference between Pataki and Bush, HUGE, like Zell Miller compared to Howard Dean or something.

There are plenty of states in which the state officials that are elected aren't of the party of the President that gets the states votes. For instance, Louisiana has never even had a Republican Senator, yet it's pretty much 100% going for Bush. In these states, the state officials are much more moderate than the Presidential candidates, and many of the Republicans in New York more closely resemble Conservative Democrats than they do George Bush.

 

[Political Prodigy]

True it is a huge difference but you can never really tell with elections. If Pataki came straight out in a conference or something and said he supported Bush, you never know what would happen. In 2001 it looked as though the democratic candidate (I cannot recall his name) would win the election for mayor of New York City since Mayor Giuliani decided he would not run again that year. The democratic party's candidate criticized Giuliani and how he was handling September 11th but the people of New York City liked Mayor Giuliani and the way he was running things, not just September 11th. Giuliani publicly through his support to Bloomberg, the republican candidate and bloomberg won by a significant margin.

 

[wasteofo2]

True it is a huge difference but you can never really tell with elections. If Pataki came straight out in a conference or something and said he supported Bush, you never know what would happen. In 2001 it looked as though the democratic candidate (I cannot recall his name) would win the election for mayor of New York City since Mayor Giuliani decided he would not run again that year. The democratic party's candidate criticized Giuliani and how he was handling September 11th but the people of New York City liked Mayor Giuliani and the way he was running things, not just September 11th. Giuliani publicly through his support to Bloomberg, the republican candidate and bloomberg won by a significant margin.

Pataki has already endorsed Bush, he spoke at the RNC, blasted Kerry and praised Bush, even though they really don't agree on much anything besides the (R) after their names.

Giuliani didn't decide not to run agian, a new law was instituted that wouldn't allow him to run again. There's a difference between a mayor who was loved throwing his support to a sucessor and a governor who shares very few beliefs with a president endorsing him.

 

[kat]

I was just invited to see Pataki at some halloween party thing on Sunday...is he worth listening to? I've never really heard him speak before...

 

[Political Prodigy]

I guess I should edit my previous post. Mayor Giuliani said before that law AND september 11th that he would not run for another term. If you recall he wanted to run for senator and was the only one who could have beaten Hilary Clinton for the job, until he got sick (I can't remember with what...was it cancer?) Rumors circulate of him possibly running for governor when pataki is done, since he does not want to run against pataki. Its quite possible.

There's a difference between a mayor who was loved throwing his support to a sucessor and a governor who shares very few beliefs with a president endorsing him.

Depending on what area of New York you go to Pataki can be quite loved indeed. And it is not so much his beliefs I was reflecting on, but his political party. Predictions were being made on which state would be for Bush (R) or Kerry (D) so I was just pointing out the possibility.

(this topic won't get locked for us going off topic will it?)

 

[Gokul43201]

Speaking of speeches...I just got back from a Kerry Campaign Speech Event here at the Ohio State University. The line-up : (1) Ohio (D) Senator & ex-Astronaut, John "Spaceman" Glenn , (2) Musician & first time political campaigner, Bruce "The Boss" Springsteen, and of course, (3) US Senator & the next President of the United States, John "The Comeback Kid" Kerry !

Pardon the excess...just feeling a little kicked right now ! Wow...was this something or what ! There were tens of thousands of people attending, it was quite amazing. The Bushies were fun too ! And the assortment of t-shirts was quite interesting : "Kerry 'flip-flop' pancakes" on the one hand, and "Buck Fush" on the other !

(Oh, and one little thing : Kerry wasn't in an SUV - the motorcade passed by me as I was walking to the event...and all his cars were sedans/limos)

Sorry for the non sequitur; now back to the topic ...

 

[wasteofo2]

I was just invited to see Pataki at some halloween party thing on Sunday...is he worth listening to? I've never really heard him speak before...

He's not stiff in the way Kerry is, but he's just kinda boring and unexciting. Not an overly serious guy when he doesn't need to be.

 

[Evo]

(this topic won't get locked for us going off topic will it?)

It was a natural flow of conversation, but...

Sorry for the non sequitur; now back to the topic ...

Thanks Gokul.

 

[revelator]

My prediction is Bush will win, however it's just a hunch. As a Canadian I have very little knowledge of the intricacies of the American electoral process, so there's no way I could provide a state by state analysis.

 

[motai]

As a Canadian I have very little knowledge of the intricacies of the American electoral process, so there's no way I could provide a state by state analysis.

You're not alone. Most Americans are completely oblivious to the electoral process and politics in general, which is mainly a byproduct of American society. Common misconceptions such as the notion that the executive branch is the most important branch have been spread rapidly by the media even though congress is the branch that creates all of the bills.