Why Hasn't Commercial Air Travel Been Attacked by Missiles?

[Greg Bernhardt]

Why haven't we seen commercial airlines attacked by missles yet? I can't imagine it's that hard to smuggle in an RPG. Many planes fly real close to the ground outside airport limits before landing. This seems like taking candy from a baby, yet we haven't seen it yet. I would imagine it would be even easier in some 3rd world countries.

Also why haven't we seen any terror attacks on trains? How easy would it be to throw a stick of dynomite on the tracks of an oncoming train? Or organize several people to throw grenades in some malls. It seems so easy. Yet they spend years developing complex plans.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/07/16/plane.repel.missile/

 

[OAQfirst]

But I remember a news report of just that from years back, an attempt to shoot down a passenger jet with an RPG.

I don't know if this was in there, but it shows they're gunning that way:

--When Have MANPADS Been Used Against Civil Aviation?

In 2003, the U.S. Department of State estimated that since the 1970s, over 40 civilian aircraft have been hit by MANPADS, causing about 25 crashes and over 600 deaths around the world. The following is a partial list of reported incidents involving civilian aircraft. This list includes one additional example of an incident subsequent to the 2003 Department of State estimate, in which a civilian aircraft was shot at by non-state actors using MANPADS. All of the incidents listed below, except the Mombasa incident, took place in zones of conflict.

MANPADS should not be confused with rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). RPGs are also portable and shoulder-fired. However, RPGs are designed primarily to be used against ground targets and are usually ineffective against aircraft that are in flight. Some RPG attacks on low-flying aircraft have been mistaken for MANPADS attacks.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cg...1129618036.Q1SadMOa9dUAAHJjMJs&modele=feature

 

[LowlyPion]

Ultimately all of society is vulnerable to about anything that can be imagined.There is no way to actually stop most any determined effort. Adding stronger locks merely sends the crooks down the street to less protected targets.

I think this kind of laser system stands less as a deterrent than as a challenge to do it anyway. If they have the will even with stronger locks, the technology is available. And you can bet if they really wanted to foil laser defenses they would just get better missles.

Until everyone on the planet has something to lose, those with nothing to lose can't be stopped.

 

[turbo]

Even worse, Greg - one RPG fired at a NLG tanker could decimate a city, yet our government obsesses on much lesser perceived threats instead. Only about 1% of containers entering the country are inspected - another weak link that could allow the delivery of lethal weaponry. If Israel and/or the US attack Iran, don't expect Iran to go toe-to-toe with our military. Instead, expect asymmetrical attacks like these.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Because there are so many easy ways to cause havoc (not just in US but all over the world) and yet we really don't see much even on a yearly basis. Does this mean maybe the whole terrorism threat is overblown? If we supposedly have thousands of terrorists already in the country and yet they don't end up doing anything maybe it is. You'd think we'd hear weekly if not daily news about terror attacks. Why aren't these cells doing anything when there are so many easy targets. Like my example before, it doesn't take years of planning and millions of dollars to through a stick of dynomite on train tracks.

 

[cristo]

Because there are so many easy ways to cause havoc (not just in US but all over the world) and yet we really don't see much even on a yearly basis. Does this mean maybe the whole terrorism threat is overblown?

Presumably that's where the security services come in-- their job is to stop the terrorists before they launch the attacks.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Presumably that's where the security services come in-- their job is to stop the terrorists before they launch the attacks.

The point of this thread is that there are millions of ways to create havoc without years of planning, millions of bucks and a long communication trail. How would the CIA stop a tight group from bombing several train tracks?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Because there are so many easy ways to cause havoc (not just in US but all over the world) and yet we really don't see much even on a yearly basis. Does this mean maybe the whole terrorism threat is overblown? If we supposedly have thousands of terrorists already in the country and yet they don't end up doing anything maybe it is. You'd think we'd hear weekly if not daily news about terror attacks. Why aren't these cells doing anything when there are so many easy targets. Like my example before, it doesn't take years of planning and millions of dollars to through a stick of dynomite on train tracks.

Since 911, something like 2 million people have crossed the US-Mexican border illegally, including a Congressman riding an elephant, followed by a mariachi band.

It is hard to understand not only how we can fight a "war on terror" with our border wide open [which is finally slowly improving, seven years later], and as you have pointed out, why haven't we been attacked given the ease of illegal entry?

In the right spots, one could still probably drive a tank towing a nuclear weapon across the border without being noticed.

 

[turbo]

The point of this thread is that there are millions of ways to create havoc without years of planning, millions of bucks and a long communication trail. How would the CIA stop a tight group from bombing several train tracks?

You don't need explosives to cause rail havoc. A pair of bolt-cutters and a few well-planned rail-switch manipulations could really play hell. I don't know about the Amtrak trunk, but the rails in Maine are loaded with switches to short little sidings where diverting passenger trains or freight trains loaded with with chemical tankers could cause significant loss of life. No organization, no money, no explosives, no planning to speak of. An individual with a bad attitude could cause real trouble with very little effort.

 

[devil-fire]

Why haven't we seen commercial airlines attacked by missles yet? I can't imagine it's that hard to smuggle in an RPG. Many planes fly real close to the ground outside airport limits before landing. This seems like taking candy from a baby, yet we haven't seen it yet. I would imagine it would be even easier in some 3rd world countries.

It's harder then a person might think, not because of the logistics themselves, but also because of the rare and sometimes mutually exclusive qualities a person would have to have to do such a thing. Also there is a strong deterrent in place for those who would try to organize such a thing (namely being bombed from hundreds or thousands of miles away). A person would have to have nothing to lose, yet have thousands of dollars to spend planning their death. They would have to be impressionable to homicidal ideologies, yet have an inquisitive nature to figure out the logistics. They would have to be dedicated to killing of innocent Americans thousands of miles away, yet not be distracted by local strife.

I was going to write a long winded post but instead I think ill just say I believe the threat is not as big as our governments would have us believe, due in part because intelligence services are doing a good job of keeping a lid on things. The idea that all the people being held at Guantanamo could still yield any useful intelligence at all is I think vary unlikely, as with other cases where extreme measure have been taken to keep the terrorist threat to a minimum.

And the most important missing factor to terrorism in the USA today is that there don't seem to be any terrorist cells around, not for lack of the FBI investigating. All the cases I have heard of suspected terrorist cells in the USA have turn out to be a total farce. The most notable case where a half-wit ice cream truck driver was interrogated for 8 hours straight and finally confessed to attending an underground terrorist training camp and included pole vault training. He was given a 20 year prison sentence for the confession alone.

 

[devil-fire]

You don't need explosives to cause rail havoc. A pair of bolt-cutters and a few well-planned rail-switch manipulations could really play hell. I don't know about the Amtrak trunk, but the rails in Maine are loaded with switches to short little sidings where diverting passenger trains or freight trains loaded with with chemical tankers could cause significant loss of life. No organization, no money, no explosives, no planning to speak of. An individual with a bad attitude could cause real trouble with very little effort.

Thankfully we have not yet come upon the age when all the crazies get truly inventive and original with the ways they try to kill people

 

[LowlyPion]

It is hard to understand not only how we can fight a "war on terror" with our border wide open [which is finally slowly improving, seven years later], and as you have pointed out, why haven't we been attacked given the ease of illegal entry?

Why bother to attack the US?

With the explosion in fuel costs and the staggering trade deficits, it seems like Asia will own the US soon enough anyway.

 

[edward]

Lets hope there is never a biological attack. The FDA has spent two months trying to trace down the salmonella debacle.

They have now declared tomatoes safe after ruining a multimillion dollar tomato crop. If the goal of terrorist was to hurt us financially, we already have done a good job of that on our own.

Lockheed built a trial version of a virtual fence for the Tucson sector of the border. (cameras, motion detectors, infra red ect.) It failed miserably, yet last month they were given the go ahead to build a massive system with 200ft towers all over the place.

 

[Jordan Joab]

Terrorists can do the following:

Release biological/chemical agents in the NYC transportation system.
Fire RPGs at landing commercial planes.
Bomb refineries in oil producing countries.
Short-sell corporations to dust.

For all the geniuses, enlightened men, brainiacs, gifted-statesmen, and all other sorts of "great" Humans that have ever existed none has touched up on the fact that Intelligent Life does not exterminate itself.

Any terrorist truly intent on destroying humanity better hope hostile aliens land on Earth soon.


~J

 

[lisab]

Lets hope there is never a biological attack. The FDA has spent two months trying to trace down the salmonella debacle.

And lest we forget, they never did get the person(s) who carried out the anthrax attacks that occurred in 2001. Biological weapons, as well as natural outbreaks of food poisoning, are apparently difficult to source.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

The point of this thread is that there are millions of ways to create havoc without years of planning, millions of bucks and a long communication trail. How would the CIA stop a tight group from bombing several train tracks?

I think that the number of terrorists in the country is extremely over exagerated. On top of that many of the people they send here may not have ever been here and may 'go soft' or realize they actually like it here. Maybe they meet people they like and can't bring themselves to hurt them.
Terrorists also prefer grand and symbolic attacks when they can get away with them. Why just derail a train if some american with a supposed deathwish will do it himself by parking his car on the rails. If a 'terrorist' did it instead would it really stand out as a terrorist attack? Maybe if he were wearing a turbin or had an 'ibn' in his name. But then people might be more suspicious of him.

 

[Jordan Joab]

Terrorism is just the latest excuse used by the ruling members of a society to motivate and mobilize its members to accomplish whatever political goal was set. By careful observation one can see that the reason is usually a resource and not the "they threaten our way of life" line.

There's always a "boogeyman", the "evil eyes" looking at us. Pure garbage.

Greeks, Romans, Persians, Egyptians, etc. all had their ancient "terrorists." You had the Crusaders trying to "liberate" Jerusalem. The Catholic Church demonizing scientists and protestants. And I'm sure England didn't see the Founding Fathers as a group of great liberators but as terrorists.

And now we come to the 21st century and we have the same garbage repackaged and delivered. "Those people hate us because we are free", "they threaten our way of life", "We need to go there to liberate and protect ourselves" you can apply this garbage to any period in the history of mankind.

Thank God we have duct tape.


Jordan.

 

[WarPhalange]

Why haven't we seen commercial airlines attacked by missles yet? I can't imagine it's that hard to smuggle in an RPG. Many planes fly real close to the ground outside airport limits before landing. This seems like taking candy from a baby, yet we haven't seen it yet. I would imagine it would be even easier in some 3rd world countries.

Also why haven't we seen any terror attacks on trains? How easy would it be to throw a stick of dynomite on the tracks of an oncoming train? Or organize several people to throw grenades in some malls. It seems so easy. Yet they spend years developing complex plans.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/07/16/plane.repel.missile/

You have been reported to DHS.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

You have been reported to DHS.

*knock* *knock* *knock* oh shi...

 

[WarPhalange]

Yeah, I'm actually pretty surprised myself. When I went to pick up my mom from the airport a few years ago, we (dad and I) parked the car at the parking garage and then went to the I guess lobby you'd call it, and waited near the gates. Absolutely NOTHING stopped us from taking a bomb into the main area. Plenty of people walking around and it would have shut down that airport almost entirely.

That laser thing is pretty awesome, though. Make a missile coming at you fly off to a crowded area. Great idea.

 

[edward]

An update on this from post 13.

Lockheed built a trial version of a virtual fence for the Tucson sector of the border. (cameras, motion detectors, infra red ect.) It failed miserably, yet last month they were given the go ahead to build a massive system with 200ft towers all over the place.

The local county govenment has just requested that Homeland Security install emergency telephones on the 32 unmanned new towers. The reason for this being that stranded and lost illegals will be able to call for help if they don't have a cell phone.

 

[seycyrus]

An update on this from post 13.
The local county govenment has just requested that Homeland Security install emergency telephones on the 32 unmanned new towers. The reason for this being that stranded and lost illegals will be able to call for help if they don't have a cell phone.

That's a good example of how compassion can get in the way of efficiency.

 

[edward]

That's a good example of how compassion can get in the way of efficiency.

And a good indicator that local government has no faith in the "virtual fence" actually working this time around.

 

[Astronuc]

Coincidentally -

Missing Semtex 'left unguarded'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7515829.stm

Oooops!

Considering the billions of dollars of weapons and drugs that cross US borders each year, if someone is determined to import terrorists and their weapons, it could be done quite easily.

 

[seycyrus]

And a good indicator that local government has no faith in the "virtual fence" actually working this time around.

I don't see how that indicates anything of the sort. Putting up cell towers in areas where people aren't supposed to be in the first place, doesn't indicate their lack of faith in the project.

 

[WarPhalange]

If their fence thing worked, people wouldn't be getting over the border and hence you wouldn't need those cell phone towers.

 

[seycyrus]

If their fence thing worked, people wouldn't be getting over the border and hence you wouldn't need those cell phone towers.

Sure you would. People would be passing through the area, regardless of whether they were caught or not. The emergency phones are not so that people can call ahead and say "I'll be there in 3 hours."

They are there for the same ridiculous reasons people talk about putting up water distribution stations.

 

[WarPhalange]

Why would people be passing through the area?

 

[seycyrus]

Why would people be passing through the area?

I guess they would be passing through the area because their tri-phase sensors told them the virtual fence wasn't functioning.

Or they didn't know whether it worked or not.

They aren't putting phones up JUST because they think people are going to be passing through, otherwise they'd be putting them up in every remote thoroughfare, which they do not (I know there are some people who would like to do that however).

They are putting them up because they have an infrastructure to piggyback onto, and PC humanitariism to "guide" them.

What's your point? That the virutal fence isn't going to be fieldable next year? Yeah, that's understood. I picked that up at this years SPIE meeting.

My point is that stupidity like these emergency phones add even more to a delayed timeline.

 

[BobG]

An update on this from post 13.



The local county govenment has just requested that Homeland Security install emergency telephones on the 32 unmanned new towers. The reason for this being that stranded and lost illegals will be able to call for help if they don't have a cell phone.

I once had a job as a security guard tasked to prevent people from sneaking into concerts. The concerts were at an outdoor facility in the Cuyahoga Valley (Blossom Music Center). People trying to sneak in would hike out into the woods and try then try to jump the barb wire fence. The smarter ones would try to sneak in while it was still light. Most first timers would wait until dark. If they used a flashlight, the security guards easily saw them coming. If they didn't use a flashlight, the guards easily heard them bumping into trees and tripping over the underbrush. Even if they were standing still, you could hear them slapping at mosquitoes. It never took too long to realize their plan was a bad idea, but then they couldn't find their way out of the woods in the dark. Lots of them wound up yelling for help to get a security guard's attention so they could ask if they could climb over the fence and turn themselves in (I always wondered where they thought that fence went - if they followed it, it would have to lead to the front gate and escape from the woods eventually).

I think that the number of terrorists in the country is extremely over exagerated. On top of that many of the people they send here may not have ever been here and may 'go soft' or realize they actually like it here. Maybe they meet people they like and can't bring themselves to hurt them.

You hit the nail on the head. Most terrorists are home-grown. A democratic country that provides good economic opportunities for its residents has fewer people willing to become terrorists. We even provide good economic opportunities for immigrants (a lot of home-grown terrorists in other countries come from immigrant neighborhoods filled with poor).

 

[stickythighs]

Why haven't we seen commercial airlines attacked by missles yet? I can't imagine it's that hard to smuggle in an RPG. Many planes fly real close to the ground outside airport limits before landing. This seems like taking candy from a baby, yet we haven't seen it yet. I would imagine it would be even easier in some 3rd world countries.

Also why haven't we seen any terror attacks on trains? How easy would it be to throw a stick of dynomite on the tracks of an oncoming train? Or organize several people to throw grenades in some malls. It seems so easy. Yet they spend years developing complex plans.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/07/16/plane.repel.missile/

Good questions Greg. I've often wondered the same thing. From the standpoint of Al-Qaeda, I see two misgivings with the RPG hitting a plane plan.

1. Wouldn't it be somewhat hard to hit a plane with an RPG unless the terrorist were on the property of the airport? I mean, these aren't heat-seeking missiles.

2. If a terrorist did manage to hit an airplane that was about to land with an RPG, would most of the people on the plane perhaps survive it? I mean, would an RPG cause a large plane to explode like TWA Flight 800 did? I personally doubt it.

On the other hand, Al-Qaeda has so many people willing to die for the cause, I'm surprised that Al-Qaeda hasn't given this a shot. I mean, an RPG doesn't cost that much.

Why throw hand grenades at malls? Why not at the Superbowl where there is a higher density of people?