- #1
zooxanthellae
- 157
- 1
I imagine there are at least a few other people watching this, here.
No poll because predictions seem pointless without context, but who do you think wins (and why)?
It really pains me to say it (I've been a Mavericks fan since Finley-Nash-Nowitzki), but I think the Heat will win. Here are my reasons for concern:
1. Chris Bosh - Unlike Perkins/Ibaka or Bynum/Gasol, Bosh is a legitimate shooter from ~18 feet. This will be enough to draw out whomever is assigned to him (likely Chandler). The negative part of this is that Chandler is a big part of the Mavs' rebounding game and a huge part of their paint defense. The Mavs were able to get away with this in the first round, when Chandler was guarding Aldridge, but I am much more wary about a Heat team with two of the best penetrators in the league.
2. Lebron/Wade - Both are, obviously, great players. But the athletic-wing type has given the Mavs fits this season (remember how easily Westbrook drew fouls/scored for long stretches against OKC? And to a lesser extent Harden? I imagine Wade and Lebron as doing that, but better). The regular-season games here are not really applicable since I believe Caron Butler (IMO easily their best wing defender since he's strong and fast) was healthy in both of those games.
3. Haslem/Lebron - two of the relatively rare guys who are "built" to guard Nowitzki, Lebron being one of a handful who has a solid chance to block Nowitzki's fadeaway (although he'd certainly have to leave his feet to do so). This, I think, will come down to how physically they let the game be played. IMO Game 1 of the WCF was too tight, but the rest of the series, as if to compensate, was too loosely officiated. Collison played good defense, but he also often played illegal defense (mostly off the ball). Officiated well, I think Haslem/Lebron can certainly keep Dirk from going off (like 40+) but I don't think we'll see a repeat of Lebron's manhandling of Derrick Rose in the ECF.
Some things that give me hope for the Mavs:
1. Ball movement - the Mavs have been moving the ball amazingly in the playoffs (the Lakers series, I think, being the best example so far). Miami is a long and athletic defense, but I think the Mavericks' passers are good enough to cope. Thus far in the playoffs they've been able to limit turnovers against long and athletic defenses in the Blazers, Lakers and (to a lesser degree) OKC and I think this bodes well.
2. Veteran savvy/will to win/some other lame jockish cliche - the Mavs have surprised pretty much everybody 3 times this season. I have trouble betting against them again.
3. Dirk Nowitzki - dude is focused and absolutely killing it on the offensive end (and not horrible on defense; Dallas' zone kind of protects him). He was amazing at the end of games against OKC, and given the way games in this series will probably go, that could be big.
4. Bench - deeper than Miami's, which could be important given the minutes Lebron and Wade have played. There are murmurs that Wade was tired out toward the tail end of the Chicago series, and his numbers don't really contradict that.
Wild Card:
Refereeing. I really wonder how the NBA is reacting to the matchup of the 05-06 finals (where, I'm sorry, the Mavericks were just jobbed). If they call things close and accurate, Dirk will get his but so will Lebron and Wade. On the other hand, Dirk will probably be guarded by Lebron while Dallas' zone may spread fouls a bit better (my thinking is that Wade and Lebron are usually fouled while driving, where more defenders have a hand in things, while Dirk is often fouled during an iso).
In any case, I think this will be a fun series to watch, although I think the concerns outweigh the reasons for hope. I only wish that it wasn't going on the week before my college finals. I guess I'll have to limit myself to 4th-quarters :(
What do you think?
No poll because predictions seem pointless without context, but who do you think wins (and why)?
It really pains me to say it (I've been a Mavericks fan since Finley-Nash-Nowitzki), but I think the Heat will win. Here are my reasons for concern:
1. Chris Bosh - Unlike Perkins/Ibaka or Bynum/Gasol, Bosh is a legitimate shooter from ~18 feet. This will be enough to draw out whomever is assigned to him (likely Chandler). The negative part of this is that Chandler is a big part of the Mavs' rebounding game and a huge part of their paint defense. The Mavs were able to get away with this in the first round, when Chandler was guarding Aldridge, but I am much more wary about a Heat team with two of the best penetrators in the league.
2. Lebron/Wade - Both are, obviously, great players. But the athletic-wing type has given the Mavs fits this season (remember how easily Westbrook drew fouls/scored for long stretches against OKC? And to a lesser extent Harden? I imagine Wade and Lebron as doing that, but better). The regular-season games here are not really applicable since I believe Caron Butler (IMO easily their best wing defender since he's strong and fast) was healthy in both of those games.
3. Haslem/Lebron - two of the relatively rare guys who are "built" to guard Nowitzki, Lebron being one of a handful who has a solid chance to block Nowitzki's fadeaway (although he'd certainly have to leave his feet to do so). This, I think, will come down to how physically they let the game be played. IMO Game 1 of the WCF was too tight, but the rest of the series, as if to compensate, was too loosely officiated. Collison played good defense, but he also often played illegal defense (mostly off the ball). Officiated well, I think Haslem/Lebron can certainly keep Dirk from going off (like 40+) but I don't think we'll see a repeat of Lebron's manhandling of Derrick Rose in the ECF.
Some things that give me hope for the Mavs:
1. Ball movement - the Mavs have been moving the ball amazingly in the playoffs (the Lakers series, I think, being the best example so far). Miami is a long and athletic defense, but I think the Mavericks' passers are good enough to cope. Thus far in the playoffs they've been able to limit turnovers against long and athletic defenses in the Blazers, Lakers and (to a lesser degree) OKC and I think this bodes well.
2. Veteran savvy/will to win/some other lame jockish cliche - the Mavs have surprised pretty much everybody 3 times this season. I have trouble betting against them again.
3. Dirk Nowitzki - dude is focused and absolutely killing it on the offensive end (and not horrible on defense; Dallas' zone kind of protects him). He was amazing at the end of games against OKC, and given the way games in this series will probably go, that could be big.
4. Bench - deeper than Miami's, which could be important given the minutes Lebron and Wade have played. There are murmurs that Wade was tired out toward the tail end of the Chicago series, and his numbers don't really contradict that.
Wild Card:
Refereeing. I really wonder how the NBA is reacting to the matchup of the 05-06 finals (where, I'm sorry, the Mavericks were just jobbed). If they call things close and accurate, Dirk will get his but so will Lebron and Wade. On the other hand, Dirk will probably be guarded by Lebron while Dallas' zone may spread fouls a bit better (my thinking is that Wade and Lebron are usually fouled while driving, where more defenders have a hand in things, while Dirk is often fouled during an iso).
In any case, I think this will be a fun series to watch, although I think the concerns outweigh the reasons for hope. I only wish that it wasn't going on the week before my college finals. I guess I'll have to limit myself to 4th-quarters :(
What do you think?
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