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I can see the headlines of tomorrow's newspaper:Rive said:It's a blooming business![]()
"Astronaut in the ISS killed by a golden tooth!"
I can see the headlines of tomorrow's newspaper:Rive said:It's a blooming business![]()
I'd be surprised if there was anyone.bob012345 said:Any large scale expansion of our technological civilization into the Solar System will have to make use of the Moon as a waystation, a depot, a source of building materials or even water and oxygen. I don't know if there will be a million people there by 2060 but I'd be surprised if there weren't a lot say ~10k.
And I'd be surprised if I was surprised at anything in 2060.PeroK said:I'd be surprised if there was anyone.
And at 7:00 the yeast goes dormant.Grelbr42 said:Y'all are way too timid at predicting the future of space.
There is an old puzzle about yeast that doubles every half hour, and fills the container at 7PM. When is the container half full? 6:30PM.
russ_watters said:This is just Fun With Math! that has little relation to the issue of space travel.
And when the chance of being blown to bits is near zero which will be hard to achieve with rocket technology.Grelbr42 said:And yes, tourism will be a thing, if the price gets low enough.
No, not if surviveability is unlikely. Your whole post is glossing over / ignoring a whole host of factors. At best you are simply hand-waving away all the dangers. As Russ said, all you've done is a just an exercise in math.Grelbr42 said:And yes, tourism will be a thing, if the price gets low enough.
But there should be a string of 50 zeroes added to the end of that. What does Excel say then?Vanadium 50 said:you get 1-3-2-2 missions per year. Excel tells me the best fit is +10% per year.
A closer look at what it takes to supply 1,000,000 people in a desert here on earth with fresh water leads to a devastating end of that crude dream. Las Vegas has only 642,000 citizens and you can watch it falling dry. And don't come with water on the moon. Even if, it takes a major industrial complex and a lot of energy to harvest it in the necessary amount.Vanadium 50 said:That is nowhere near a million.
?!?!?!Frabjous said:at 100$/lb (an order of magnitude smaller than today) that‘s $4B per month.
I meant if Tulsa was on the moon.Astronuc said:?!?!?!
I'm not sure 100$/lb.
The annual GDP for Tulsa, OK in 2021 was ~60B. I don't think the majority was air freight and passengers.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NGMP46140
As I recall, the cost of 1 kg from sea level to LEO is ~$10k / kg. That's the number I was given in the mid 1980s. Just to get a 80 kg human to orbit would cost about $800 k, not including the infrastructure to support the human in space. 1 metric ton (1000 kg) in space would cost $10 M.
I haven't look at the cost/kg in a long time, but the energy require to put a kg in LEO is still the same now as it was then. The cost has probably increased.
One has to look at the energy requirements for the various systems, e.g., the requirement for liquid CH4 (basically LNG) or LH2 and LOX, and see what production capacity is required.
I remember vividly the grandiose plans for ISS, which when faced with reality shrunk in size and scope, while the budget ballooned massively by more than an order of magnitude.
$100/lb may be too low. Initial costs might be much greater. Ultimately, it will depend on how self-sufficient a lunar base would become, e.g., recycling CO2 into O2. And then there is processing of lunar minerals into structural materials.Frabjous said:I meant if Tulsa was on the moon
I think this whole thread is a waste of time. The idea that there will be 1,000,000 on the moon by 2060 is just silly.donglepuss said:What do you think????
Probably, but $4B/month is way to high to be economically feasible.Astronuc said:$100/lb may be too low. Initial costs might be much greater. Ultimately, it will depend on how self-sufficient a lunar base would become, e.g., recycling CO2 into O2. And then there is processing of lunar minerals into structural materials.
One objective for a lunar base would be to support space exploration, e.g., missions to Mars and/or outer planets, since it costs less to launch a kg from lunar surface than earth surface.
Back and forth between the moon and earth is orders of magnitude more complicated than migrating across the earth, and round trips to Mars and beyond is way more complicate than lunar missions.
Even the OP has bailedphinds said:I think this whole thread is a waste of time. T
Yes, but PF's first law applies: The sillier the thread the higher the number of posts.Vanadium 50 said:Even the OP has bailed
Yeah but the delivery fee is murder.russ_watters said:Millionth customer gets free groceries.
DeadBWV said:I went to a tech conference in Marin County back in 2012, the kind of resort hotel where the best and brightest In Silicon Valley need to have the strawberries on the breakfast buffet labeled ‘gluten free’. Panelists and people in idle conversation were all seriously talking about dying on Mars, like there would be a one-way shuttle available in their dotage.