Zogby: Kerry ahead 273 to 222 in electoral votes

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In summary: Republicans?In summary, Zogby correctly predicted Gore's greater numbers in 2000, while Gallup and other corporate media polls linked financially to the GOP had B ahead by 11 points to 6 points. Kerry has made up ground in many of the 20 battleground states, but Mr Kerry retains a slim lead in most of them - enough to give him a majority in the electoral college, if the vote was held now. However, Bush is still expected to win in the end by a landslide, as the polls are skewed towards republicans.
  • #1
light9
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Zogby: Kerry ahead 273 to 222 in electoral votes


(Later polls from many indicate Kerry pulling further ahead)
Kerry is back in the race, says latest poll

(Zogby correctly predicted Gore's greater numbers in 2000, while
Gallup and other corporate media polls linked financially to the GOP
had B ahead by 11 points to 6 points.)



Analysis of swing states gives challenger small lead

Julian Borger in Washington
Wednesday September 8, 2004
The Guardian



The Zogby poll says the president has made up ground in many of the 20 battleground states, but Mr Kerry retains a slim lead in most of them - enough to give him a majority in the electoral college, if the vote was held now.

The college, which chooses the president, is made up of 538 delegates drawn from the 50 states and Washington DC, according to population. Assigning electors according to the way each state is leaning now, the Zogby poll gives Mr Kerry a lead of 273 to 222, down from the past two months, but a significant edge all the same.

(none of the polls, not even zogby or pew,
are doing enough young cellphone user polling)

(hold Gallup accountable for giving Bush a false 11 point
edge in late Oct 2000)
(Hold all corporate media PR accountable for
calling themselves pollsters)

http://forum.johnkerry.com



Last Race Gallup Got Right Was 1984

Why you should never trust Gallup. A Quiz:

1. When is the last time that Gallup accurately predicted the outcome of a presidential election?

2. How many elections have there been since then?

3. Of those elections that have been held since their last accurate poll, how often has Gallup been wrong by 3% or more?

4. Of those elections that have been held since their last accurate poll, what has been the average error between their final poll results and the actual outcome of the poll?



Answers:
1. 1984 was the last time Gallup got it right
2. 4 - 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000
3. 3 - They have been wrong outside the margin of error 3 out of 4 of those elections.
4. 4 - The average difference between their final poll and the actual outcome was greater than the margin of error.

This post has been edited by kerrywinsbig: Today, 08:02 PM


--------------------

This post is opinion of poster and
not necessarily of the majority of Kerry supporters,
campaign or President Kerry. Purple happens as tens of millions of blue voters win in formerly red states..
Thank You God and the people of the USA
for Kerry's 2005 Inauguration Day
 
Physics news on Phys.org
  • #2
I'm sure someone has been enlightened!
 
  • #3
www.electoral-vote.com is a really good resource for electoral vote tracking.
 
  • #4
Like I've been saying, Kerry - Landslide!
 
  • #5
wasteofo2 said:
Like I've been saying, Kerry - Landslide!

But http://www.electoral-vote.com/ claims a "Bush Landslide" by 331 to 207.

And http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html says Bush wins by 285 to 253.

The closest I've seen http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html says Bush wins by 278 to 260.
 
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  • #6
Gokul43201 said:
But http://www.electoral-vote.com/ claims a "Bush Landslide" by 331 to 207.
Bah, I was just getting excited seeing my guy winning, with such a disparity between reputable polling companies like Zogby, and random little home-made websites, I'm not going to put too much faith into polls in general.
 
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  • #7
If you look at the graph of electoral vote numbers over time at www.electoral-vote.com, it shows that the projections have fluctuated a lot and the lead has changed a few times. While the current time is a new minimum on the graph for Democrats, there's no distinct trend overall, i.e. no particular reason to believe that this isn't just another fluctuation.

Also, as alluded to in the original post, current polling techniques are expected to skew slightly Republican as polls do not reach those who only have cell phones—a group that is largely younger people, who tend to skew towards the Democrats.
 
  • #8
If you look at the graphs of the individual states, there's even more fluctuation. Check out Wisconsin and the huge jagged line for Kerry support. A lot of the close states vary wildly from poll to poll. This site uses all the polls (Zogby, Gallup, and others) and, hopefully, you can weed through the noise to find a trend. The idea is that by sometime in October, there's enough data to weed out the noise and a trend develops.

The different sites tracking electoral votes are kind of interesting, though. The results swing back and forth so often, it's almost like watching a close basketball game.
 
  • #9
plover said:
Also, as alluded to in the original post, current polling techniques are expected to skew slightly Republican as polls do not reach those who only have cell phones—a group that is largely younger people, who tend to skew towards the Democrats.
Most polls that I have seen are weighted towards the Democrats. Can you show that the polls are weighted towards republicans...(I don't think so...but..) I believe in the past elections polling has also been shown to have been to heavily weighted towards the dems. I'll have to look around later to see if I can support this though.
 

FAQ: Zogby: Kerry ahead 273 to 222 in electoral votes

How accurate is the Zogby poll?

The accuracy of the Zogby poll has been debated among experts. While some believe it to be highly accurate, others have raised concerns about its methodology and potential biases. It is important to consider multiple polls and sources when analyzing election data.

How does Zogby determine the electoral votes for each candidate?

Zogby uses a combination of state-level polling data and historical voting patterns to determine the estimated electoral votes for each candidate. They also take into account potential shifts in voter demographics and behaviors.

How often does Zogby update their electoral vote predictions?

Zogby updates their electoral vote predictions on a daily basis, taking into account new polling data and any significant events or developments in the election.

Do Zogby's polls include third-party candidates?

Yes, Zogby's polls do include third-party candidates. They also provide breakdowns for how each candidate is performing among different demographics and regions.

How does Zogby's electoral vote prediction compare to other pollsters?

Zogby's electoral vote prediction may differ from other pollsters, as each organization may use different methodologies and data sources. It is important to look at multiple polls and compare their predictions to get a more accurate picture of the election.

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