Technical Analysis on Titan Sub (Titanic Sub)

[Vanadium 50]

There are international safety standards for passenger-carrying ships, things like how many lifeboats are required, that ironically were put into place following the sinking of the Titanic.

But are there for deep sea submersibles?

Is there some organization out there that says "If you do X, Y and Z, we will certify that diving to 13000 feet is safe"? (And if there is, would you believe them?)

If the position is "there's no body that will certify this as safe, therefore we ban it for everyone" where do we draw the line for what we ban? I have a list upthread of other candidates.

Diving to 13000 feet is dangerous. We all know that, and everyone aboard should have known that - even the 19 year old. Requiring it to be "safe" is the same as banning it.

Now, if you want to argue it should be safER, OK, how much safer? Factor of 2? Factor of 10? And how do you verify this number?

This is roughly as dangerous as manned space flight or climbing Everest, It is much safer than going down Niagara falls in a barrel. Possibly one notch worse than BASE jumping.

 

[Vanadium 50]

To expand - I understand the "there outta be a law" reaction to tragedy. But how much in the way of resources should we spend saving stupid rich people from themselves?

• This poses no risk to the population at large.
• If the death of the designer is not a deterrent, rules and regulations won't be either.
• Rich people can circumvent these restrictions, Does anyone think Michael Jackson's many cosmetic surgeries were medically necessary? Or even a good idea?
• If we ban - or regulate into oblivion - this, do we really think stupid rich people will take up knitting instead? Or will they do some else, somethintg we hope is marginally less dangerous?

Deep-sea tourism kills, on average, one person per year. Smoking kills half a million. Perspective, people.

 

[gmax137]

But are there for deep sea submersibles?

I dunno. Sounds like something the lawyers could argue about until we see a proton decay.

 

[Astronuc]

An AP News article on the murky regulations of deep-sea expeditions
https://apnews.com/article/titanic-sub-accident-laws-deep-sea-6d1e100f39a46091ae9895706adbcceb

 

[pinball1970]

There is a claim that ascent weights were dropped.
The claim is here https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/james-cameron-titanic-sub-implosion-b2363050.html
The source is James Cameron, and his source is the “community."

Something the investigation will shed light on?

 

[hutchphd]

To expand - I understand the "there outta be a law" reaction to tragedy. But how much in the way of resources should we spend saving stupid rich people from themselves?

Absolutely. This is a textbook self-limiting problem.

 

[Astronuc]

Something the investigation will shed light on?

The US Coast Guard has initiated an inquiry. Ostensibly, they will do a thorough investigation, which will include events leading up to and including the implosion.

The Coast Guard convened a Marine Board of Investigation (MBI) into the loss of the Titan submersible and the five people on board. The crew of the Polar Prince research vessel lost contact with the Titan submersible 1 hour and 45 minutes into its dive on Sunday, June 18, 2023. After an extensive search and rescue effort, wreckage of the Titan submersible was located on the ocean floor approximately 500 meters off the bow of the Titanic. An MBI is the highest level of investigation in the Coast Guard. Upon completion of the investigation, the Board will issue a report to the Commandant with the evidence collected, the facts established, its conclusions, and recommendations.

During the course of the MBI, the Board will work to determine:

• The cause of the casualty, including the cause of any death.
• Whether an act of misconduct, incompetence, negligence, unskillfulness, or willful violation of law committed by any individual licensed, certificated, or documented has contributed to the cause of the casualty, or to a death involved in the casualty, so that appropriate remedial action may be taken.
• Whether an act of misconduct, incompetence, negligence, unskillfulness, or willful violation of law committed by any person, including an officer, employee, or member of the Coast Guard, contributed to the cause of the casualty, or to a death involved in the casualty.
• Whether there is evidence that an act subjecting the offender to a civil penalty under that laws of the United States has been committed, so that appropriate action may be undertaken to collect a penalty.
• Whether there is evidence that a criminal act under the laws of the United States has been committed, so that the matter may be referred to appropriate authorities for prosecution.
• Whether there is need for new laws or regulations, or amendment or repeal of existing laws or regulations, to prevent the recurrence of the casualty.

https://www.news.uscg.mil/Press-Rel...ard-of-investigation-into-loss-of-titan-subm/

And the Canadian TSB launches investigation into a marine occurrence involving the Canadian-flagged vessel Polar Prince and the submersible Titan
https://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/medias-media/deploiement-deployment/marine/2023/m23a0169-20230623.html
https://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/enquetes-investigations/marine/2023/m23a0169/m23a0169.html

The occurrence​

On 18 June 2023, the Canadian-flagged cargo vessel Polar Prince was at the Titanic wreck site, 325 nautical miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland and Labrador, providing surface support to the submersible Titan. There were 17 crew members and 24 people on board the Polar Prince. Five people from the Polar Prince were on board the Titan and approximately 1 hour and 45 minutes after the submersible began its descent, the support vessel lost contact.

On 22 June 2023, the United States Coast Guard confirmed that the debris found on the ocean floor near the Titanic wreckage consisted of pieces of the missing submersible. As a result, the five people on board the Titan are presumed dead.

In accordance with the Canadian Transportation Accident Investigation and Safety Board Act and international agreements, the TSB, as the investigation authority of the flag state of the support vessel involved in the occurrence, will conduct a safety investigation regarding the circumstances of this operation conducted by the Canadian-flagged vessel Polar Prince.

I expect the Canadian TSB will cooperate with the US CG MBI.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Something the investigation will shed light on?

I'm not sure how. The weights are at the bottom of the ocean, and even if recovered, what do they tell you about when they were dropped?

One thing that surprises me is the lack of telemetry involved. Add an optical fiber to the umbilical and you have all the bandwidth you need - a text every 15 minutes? You could ping every second, and have a duplicate display of every instrument, and have audio and video communication with the occupants. With 90+% of the bandwidth to spare.

Indeed, I am a little surprised that the "guide" was not on the surface. That would have allowed them to sell 4 seats instead of 3. OK, maybe not the best idea when the pilot is old enough to have danced to Glenn Miller* but I am surprised that the average college sports game is better instrumented.

* OK, not quite.

 

[pinball1970]

I'm not sure how. The weights are at the bottom of the ocean, and even if recovered, what do they tell you about when they were dropped?

One thing that surprises me is the lack of telemetry involved. Add an optical fiber to the umbilical and you have all the bandwidth you need - a text every 15 minutes? You could ping every second, and have a duplicate display of every instrument, and have audio and video communication with the occupants. With 90+% of the bandwidth to spare.

Indeed, I am a little surprised that the "guide" was not on the surface. That would have allowed them to sell 4 seats instead of 3. OK, maybe not the best idea when the pilot is old enough to have danced to Glenn Miller* but I am surprised that the average college sports game is better instrumented.

* OK, not quite.

If they were released first they would show less sign of damage?

 

[Astronuc]

If they were released first they would show less sign of damage?

Not necessarily. In theory, they weights would drop straight down and be relatively close today. It would be useful to know where they lie with respect to the debris field.

I'm curious to know how it was determined the weights were dropped. Was it a text message to the support ship? That would be the only way to know, before they lost communication.

Titan was apparently 1 hour and 45 minutes into what is apparently a 2 hour descent, so they were perhaps 7/8 (0.875) of the depth to Titanic. So, they were possibly at 3300-3400 m instead of 3800. The lack of telemetry or black box is problematic. Ideally, there would be some record of what happened leading up to the failure.

 

[pinball1970]

Not necessarily. In theory, they weights would drop straight down and be relatively close today. It would be useful to know where they lie with respect to the debris field.

I'm curious to know how it was determined the weights were dropped. Was it a text message to the support ship? That would be the only way to know, before they lost communication.

Titan was apparently 1 hour and 45 minutes into what is apparently a 2 hour descent, so they were perhaps 7/8 (0.875) of the depth to Titanic. So, they were possibly at 3300-3400 m instead of 3800. The lack of telemetry or black box is problematic. Ideally, there would be some record of what happened leading up to the failure.

From the claim in #110.

 

[Vanadium 50]

In theory, they weights would drop straight down and be relatively close today.

As the great philosopher, L.P. Berra once said "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is."

The incident seems to have occurred somewhere between 1/2 and 1 mile from the bottom. That;s a long way to drop, and there are ocean currents.

I think it is hopeless to tell when it was dropped. It seems much more promising to see how it was dropped - what is still attached at what is not may provide some information. Ideally this was designed in from the beginning.

 

[Astronuc]

The incident seems to have occurred somewhere between 1/2 and 1 mile from the bottom. That;s a long way to drop, and there are ocean currents.

Perhaps closer to 1/2 mile, or 500 m. The weights could be lead or depleted U, and they probably drop fairly quickly, and the would fall into the ooze, so not a lot of time to drift on the current.

Since the debris of the Titan was found about 1600 ft (~490 m) from the Titanic, I would expect the weights to be nearby. I wonder how deep in the ooze they would be.

 

[Rive]

The weights could be lead or depleted U

These are not recoverable, I guess?
Simple lumps of steel would feel more appropriate.

 

[JT Smith]

James Cameron said that the only way they would have known the weights were dropped were if it had been communicated to the surface ship. If that's true there's a good chance it will come out in an investigation.

 

[JT Smith]

With regard to the self-limiting nature of rich thrill-seekers dropping a quarter million on a death ride: for sure that's true. But if there is strong evidence of deception, negligence, and/or violations of law I don't think it should matter. Fairness and justice shouldn't be about numbers.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Uranium would be best. You can find it by the nice blue glow.

I don't know what terminal velocity is in water - I'd guess 10 m/s for weights and 5 m/s for the vessel. So at 500m the weights would hit the bottom around a minute sooner. Plenty of time to introduce uncertainty and confusion.

 

[gmax137]

One thing that surprises me is the lack of telemetry involved. Add an optical fiber to the umbilical and you have all the bandwidth you need - a text every 15 minutes?

Why does that surprise you? There's no question that this project was done on a budget.

This is the vessel built with expired materials.
(WaPo, "Titan CEO spoke of ‘discount’ parts, journalist invited on submersible says")

Weissmann said Rush told him how he had gotten the carbon fiber used to make the Titan “at a big discount from Boeing.” Weissmann wrote in Travel Weekly that Rush said he was able to get the carbon fiber at a good rate “because it was past its shelf life for use in airplanes.”

It is controlled with a Nintendo console (BBC News, Titan sub: Cramped vessel is operated by video game controller). There may be nothing wrong with this per se, but I see Nintendo consoles at yard sales for 10 bucks.

There have been questions about the thickness of the CF (https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/21/us/titan-sub-safety-oceangate-employees/index.html)

The former employee became concerned when the carbon fiber hull of the Titan arrived, he said, echoing Lochridge’s concerns about its thickness and adhesion in his conversation with CNN. The hull had only been built to five inches thick, he said, telling CNN company engineers told him they had expected it to be seven inches thick.

 

[snorkack]

The outer shell was in compression. Was the initial failure mode likely to be buckling, or shear crack?

 

[hutchphd]

This material is anisotropic, not rigorously uniform, and subject to local hysteresis. I don't even know if the question makes any sense. The answer is don't get aboard.

 

[Astronuc]

The outer shell was in compression.

Until it wasn't. When a circular tube starts to creep down in one direction, on the perpendicular diameter, which is creeping out, the wall is bending, and the outer surface eventually goes into tension. If there is a flaw at that location, the stress concentrations are huge > 3x. The outer portions of the membrane pivot on the inner portions.

From experience, 2% ovality is about the limit before creep collapse rate starts to take off (increases rapidly) and time to failure decreases rapidly.

I've seen some examples and calculation, and I've some calculations/analyses myself.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why does that surprise you? There's no question that this project was done on a budget.

Because there's money to be made by understanding how well the vessel performs.

The numbers that have been given are 2 hours down, 2 hours looking around and 2 hours going up, making in total 8. (I know...) If better understanding of the performance let you cut that to 4, you could do 2 dives in a day. Place the guide at the surface, and you can fill 4 seats instead of 3. And so on.

And it's no expensive - a few thousand dollars.

Nintendo console

I've seen this. My reaction is "so what?" It's not the part that failed. Lots of high-tech projects use low-tech parts. One of the Fermilab accelerators uses magnets from automatic car windows. A popular cable for experiments is ethernet, and HDMI is starting to gain popularity. One LHC experiment is shimmed with US dimes. One Fermilab experiment has detectors registered with tongue depressors.

There's plenty to complain about, but IMO, "Nintendo" is not one of them.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Until it wasn't.

An experiment any 10 year old can do. (Kept me amused when I was 10)

Take an empty can of Coke. Stand it up on its bottom and stand on the top of the can with one leg. It supports your weight fine. Now with your free foot genrly tap the side. The can buckles and collapses to a flat mess.

 

[gmax137]

Because there's money to be made by understanding how well the vessel performs.

The numbers that have been given are 2 hours down, 2 hours looking around and 2 hours going up, making in total 8. (I know...) If better understanding of the performance let you cut that to 4, you could do 2 dives in a day. Place the guide at the surface, and you can fill 4 seats instead of 3. Amd so on.

These are good points. Apparently too subtle for the business plan.

There's plenty to complain about, but IMO, "Nintendo" is notg one of them.

Yes, I agree. I almost didn't mention it, a cheap shot.

 

[snorkack]

Until it wasn't. When a circular tube starts to creep down in one direction, on the perpendicular diameter, which is creeping out, the wall is bending, and the outer surface eventually goes into tension. If there is a flaw at that location, the stress concentrations are huge > 3x. The outer portions of the membrane pivot on the inner portions.

From experience, 2% ovality is about the limit before creep collapse rate starts to take off (increases rapidly) and time to failure decreases rapidly.

But it is not yet in milliseconds at that point, because in that case it wouldn´t be "creep" collapse.

A pressure vessel could in general fail in several ways:
It might spring a limited leak and fill through that leak, with no collapse. But for a submarine, it would still be just as deadly! The wreck of Kursk could not surface, and water leaking in over several hours still killed everybody. Obviously, you don´t want weak spots in the pressure vessel, so you reinforce them... until the vessel fails in a random spot elsewhere than at seams.
Or it might buckle and undergo a purely elastic collapse. But this would still be just as deadly... if you could build a submarine metal shell that simply pops back to shape when lifted out of depth (no metal is actually that tough), it would be pointless because people would still be already dead inside.
I understand that the strongest vessels generally fail by implosion - they crack and shatter into a few large pieces. This means that a failure does propagate across the vessel once started, rather than stopping as a limited leak (and flooding the ship without imploding).
But how are the starting points of a future implosion detected and identified before actual implosion? What kind of flaw monitoring was it that the Titan operators should have done and neglected to do, or which could have been done on the conventional steel submarines (which have "test depth" and "collapse depth"), but which were somehow unworkable on titanium and carbon fibre submarine?

 

[Vanadium 50]

a cheap shot.

But it's not yours, it;s the media's.

I'm also curious about "expired" carbon fiber. Carbon fiber is not like tomatoes. Boeing has 12 year old 787s out there, and that carbon fiber is no youger than the plane. P can more easily believe "we thought we would use fiber type X but we switched to Y" or even "this is what's leftover on the spool when we wind a fuselage". At least more than going stale.

 

[Astronuc]

An experiment any 10 year old can do. (Kept me amused when I was 10)

Take an empty can of Coke. Stand it up on its bottom and stand on the top of the can with one leg. It supports your weight fine. Now with your free foot genrly tap the side. The can buckles and collapses to a flat mess.

I've done that too.

 

[DaveC426913]

The weights could be lead or depleted U

Lead is cheap. I don't see a lot of rationale for using anything denser, such as depleted U, since you don't have any constraint on space on the outside of the craft.

 

[gmax137]

I'm also curious about "expired" carbon fiber.

I read on another forum (for machinists) that the carbon fiber comes with a "sizing" to help the bonding between fiber and epoxy, and that this sizing is what has a shelf life. Whether this is accurate, I can't say.

 

[Astronuc]

purely elastic collapse

Collapse implies brittle fracture or permanent deformation - not elastic.

Note that submarines do not dive to the depth of the Titanic. The collapse depth of submarines is not in the public domain. The submarine Thresher apparently collapsed at about 2400 ft, but as far as I know, that is not official. Following the Thresher, new guidelines were issued.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2023/april/what-killed-thresher

In the case of the Thresher, the rear part telescoped into the forward section.

Buckling due to creep collapse starts as creep (below yield). As soon as the local stress state hits yield, we call that flow. As stress increases, flow rate increases. For brittle materials, it stays nearly elastic until rapid fracture, which occurs at about 1/3 the speed of sound in a solid (at least for metals). So a pressurized pipe (as in a pipeline) can propagate a fracture faster than it can depressurize. In metals the speed of sound is several 1000s m/s depending on the material.
https://www.olympus-ims.com/en/ndt-tutorials/thickness-gauge/appendices-velocities/

Results of tests on multiple samples indicate sound speeds of 10.763 km/s along the fibers (0°) and 3.042 km/s transverse to the fibers (90°).
Ref: https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1117281

Supposedly, Titan had some acoustic monitoring system to detect crack (initiation?). Crack propagation at 3 km/s doesn't leave much time to response (i.e., ms). Brittle materials fail without much warning, which is why we prefer ductile materials - at least one gets some deformation in the elastic range. If Titan's systems warned them, it was too late, IMO.

 

[Astronuc]

Rapid collapse, but ductile (just 1 atm, or 1 bar)

Slow collapse, and still ductile ( slow decrease to <1 atm, or <11.01325 bar)

https://www.progressiverailroading....tank-car-legend-on-MythBusters-TV-show--47621Consider with 350 or 380 atm differential pressure.

 

[gmax137]

Here's an interesting article from 2017, Composites World magazine.
https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/composite-submersibles-under-pressure-in-deep-deep-waters

The magazine goes into details of the OceanGate "Cyclops 2" submersible, it isn't clear whether this is the Titan vessel.

The rationale for the carbon fiber design is identified:

OceanGate CEO Stockton Rush says the company had been evaluating the potential of using a carbon fiber composite hull since 2010, primarily because it permits creation of a pressure vessel that is naturally buoyant and, therefore, would enable OceanGate to forgo the use — and the significant expense — of syntactic foam on its exterior.

There's info in the article that makes me question the "out of date" CF and the 7 vs. 5 inch stories.

Spencer opted for a layup strategy that combines alternating placement of prepreg carbon fiber/epoxy unidirectional fabrics in the axial direction, with wet winding of carbon fiber/epoxy in the hoop direction, for a total of 480 plies. The carbon fiber is standard-modulus Grafil 37-800 (30K tow), supplied by Mitsubishi Chemical Carbon Fiber & Composites Inc. (Irvine, CA, US). Prepreg was supplied by Irvine-based Newport Composites, now part of Mitsubishi Chemical Carbon Fiber & Composites Inc. The wet-winding epoxy is Epon Resin 682 from Hexion Inc. (Columbus, OH, US). The curing agent is Lindride LS-81K frLindau Chemicals Inc.cals (Columbia, SC, US).

Initial design work indicated that the hull, to be rated for 4,000m depth with a 2.25 safety factor, should be 114 mm thick or 4.5 inches, which OceanGate opted to round up to 5 inches (127 mm) to build in an additional safety margin.

 

[snorkack]

Collapse implies brittle fracture or permanent deformation - not elastic.

Consider something like a plastic drinking straw failing in excessive suction/external pressure, with the result that it is no longer round - it is compressed to a flat strip with only open parts at the edges of the strip where the bending rigidity stops it from folding against itself? It is elastic deformation (remove suction and the straw reopens), but do you have another term for it besides "collapse"?

Supposedly, Titan had some acoustic monitoring system to detect crack (initiation?). Crack propagation at 3 km/s doesn't leave much time to response (i.e., ms). Brittle materials fail without much warning, which is why we prefer ductile materials - at least one gets some deformation in the elastic range. If Titan's systems warned them, it was too late, IMO.

True, responding to final freely propagating crack is too late.
Do brittle materials have deformation through formation of stopped cracks? Cracks which propagate only a small distance to obstructions, cause deformation, redistribution of loads, generate acoustic effects (both in creation and while sitting there as cracks) - but do not initially propagate through, nor connect to leak water through? Until there is enough pre-failure brittle deformation accumulated that the cracks propagate by linking up to stopped cracks?

 

[Vanadium 50]

Note that submarines do not dive to the depth of the Titanic.

That anybody admits to, anyway.

Seriously,, you can look at a submarine and see that it's not going to go anywhere near that deep. I don't know what the deepest diving military submarine is - if you disregard the one-offs like the Papa and the Dolphin, probably the Oscars. But there's not a whole lot of benefit to going deeper and deeper and deeper. And what benefit there is can be countered by building more, cheaper subs.

There's am old Navy joke about going too deep.

Old salty chief: "Son, if this boat exceeds its maximum depth, what will be going through your mind?"
New sailor: "Gosh, Chief, I don't know."
Old salty chief: "The hull."

I can't speak to other navies, but the US Navy takes sub safety very, very seriously. It only takes one slip up.

 

[Astronuc]

Initial design work indicated that the hull, to be rated for 4,000m depth with a 2.25 safety factor, should be 114 mm thick or 4.5 inches, which OceanGate opted to round up to 5 inches (127 mm) to build in an additional safety margin.

My guess is that folks will be rethinking that. Actually, that might apply to the first dive. Maybe the subsequent dive is 0.99-0.97 of that, and each subsequent dive would be 0.99-097 of that from the previous dive; and maybe it's nonlinear, e.g., 0.99*0.98*0.97*. . . . And that may be from pristine material.
One could put numbers in a spreadsheet and test different scenarios for 24 or 25 successive dives.

Environmental degradation and phenomena like cyclic fatigue must be considered.

They could have taken a scale model built to their design requirements and run it up and down, and measured after each cycle. It might take a month to do that - and it does cost money.

But if one is putting passengers in such an experimental vessel and exposing it to extreme conditions, then one needs to assure vessel integrity to guarantee 'safety' to some extent.

It's still not clear to me how they designed for 4000 m, nor is it clear how OceanGate validated the design. Hopefully, the investigations will shed light on what was done, and what wasn't.

I noticed that not only have the OceanGate and OceanGate Expeditions been deactivated, but Spencer Composites removed their page for Marine applications.

From a Google search

Titan Submersible
https://oceangate.com › our-subs › titan-submersible

Titan is a Cyclops-class manned submersible designed to take five people to depths of 4,000 meters (13,123 feet) for site survey and inspection, research and ...

Well clearly, the catastrophic failure would call into question their claim about 'designed' . . . 'to depths of 4,000 meters (13,123 feet)'.