BITCOIN, Heists, Thefts, Hacks, Scams, and Losses

[nsaspook]

Usually if one provides testimony against one's partners...i.e. "to rat", they get shorter sentences, not longer.

Usually the defense asks for a low number, the prosecution asks for a high number, and the judge picks something in that range. Its rare that they go outside it.

It can happen after the fact of initial sentencing (Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 35(b)) so they get to think about being a "rat" to make that that long jail sentence become a shorter one.

 

[Astronuc]

Bitcoin Briefly Tops $70,000 With GameStop Mania Spurring Crypto
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-briefly-tops-70-000-162307630.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

So whatever happened to the FTX executives who pled guilty? What is holding up their sentencing?

 

[morrobay]

How worrisome is this for the US dollar? https://www.forbes.com/sites/digita...ers-bet-on-a-donald-trump-bitcoin-price-boom/

 

[phinds]

How worrisome is this for the US dollar? https://www.forbes.com/sites/digita...ers-bet-on-a-donald-trump-bitcoin-price-boom/

I'd say zero. This is just one of those things that might skim the crud off of the top of the betting gene pool.

 

[Vanadium 50]

How worrisome is this for the US dollar?

How worrisome is what? The national debt? Depends on who you ask. It is a fact that the dollar is worth less than it used to be relative to goods and services (this is just saying there has been inflation) and it is true that servicing the debt is expensive (one-sixth of the federal budget last I checked). How troublesome this is depends on your personal financial situation and your politics.

If BTC were an actual asset, and treated as a stock, the effect on the economy if it were zeroed out completely would be about the same as Monday's bad day at the stock market. Those companies actually make things: McDonalds still makes hamburgers, Exxon still makes gasoline, and Boeing still makes mistakes...er...airplanes. Bitcoin doesn't make anything, so zeroing it out would likely have a smaller effect than Monday at the market.

A Chicago-school economist might argue that this would help the economy: if you can't sit on you butt and get rich off Bitcoin, you need to produce goods and services that other people want.

 

[morrobay]

My personal financial situation is based on the exchange rate: Thai baht/ $ . I have direct deposits from federal service in to Citibank. Then I just go to ATM and withdrawal Thai baht. Otherwise I would not be that worried. So rather a different situation for those overseas.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I can fairly well say with certainty that neither the US Treasury Department nor the vast majority of BTC speculators are asking themselves "yes, but what will this do to the USD/THB exchange rate".

 

[morrobay]

Ok can I ask you what this will do to the exchange rate? That is USD/All others

 

[Vanadium 50]

What will what do? A putative zeroing out of BTC? After Monday's stock market loss (post hoc ergo propter hoc) the USD relative to the rest of the XDR basket of currencies fell about ¼%. For the reasons I have above, I would consider this an upper bound.

BTC is just a pimple on the overall economy.

 

[phinds]

Ok can I ask you what this will do to the exchange rate? That is USD/All others

Approximately nothing, same as post #985

 

[Vanadium 50]

I also question the total valuation of BTC at a trillion plus. Lets say I mint 1000 MagicBeans and sell 999 for a dollar, and the last one for $1000. Is the total valuation of the MagicBeans really a million dollars?

People "invest" in BTC because they think it will go up. In a sell-off, the price goes down. If it goes down, its not going up. People don't want it if its going down, so they sell. That depresses the price further. And so on. The same positive feedback that sent the price up now sends it down. In the 20th century, this was called a "bubble".

I realize writing this means I am an old stick in the mud who doesn't understand "but this time it's different!". We shall see.