- #71
nismaratwork
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mheslep said:
Gotcha, and agreed.
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mheslep said:1991, Gulf War. Qsa made an absolute statement with no time frame.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...ws/clarke.html
WhoWee said:Is this what you mean by "mismanaged"? I guess in the context of your 5,000 year view - a wait and see approach by the Arabs is understandable?
qsa said:Yes, I said mismanaged, but they are not just waiting. The errors that have been made are both of strategic and tactical in nature. They have misread the geopolitics of the time and overestimated their own strength. But some of it is understandable considering that they have been under the Turkish rule and then both French and English. And also they were badly underdeveloped. The situation is very different now; they realize that the fight is a long term economical, social, and political among many other tools. But of course they are lacking in efficiency still.
As for the refugees, it is a breeding ground for new generation that is utterly bitter and they link very well with a large underprivileged segment (just as bitter) of the Arab population, which can destabilize the Arab world and hence affect the oil supply. That is why I had mentioned that as a reason for not being in the US interest.As you know humans are very territorial (just like all animals) violating that is like violating his body. And no amount of money can make up for it.
nismaratwork said:WhoWee said:I think the view is generally that many Arab governments walk the fine line between self-destruction and governing their populace; this is such a wonderful *sarcasm* tool to distract their people and direct their anger. Look at Bin Laden who loathes the house of Saud; if not for the use of the Palestinians as a sort of ongoing 'martyr' far more people would focus on the real issues in the region that pertain to everyday life.
In short, Israel can be counted on to defend its right to exist (no shock there), the Palestinians are given arms and a sense of support without actually giving them a home or a chance. Most of the aid that (should) reach them is not Arab aid, and a great deal of it is "misplaced" by (formerly) Fatah, and now Hamas. Further, by conflating the notion of Israel and the USA these governments can direct anger off their shores entirely.
In the end, the Palestinians are a weapon in many hands, and one that occasionally goes off unpredictably. As such, it's kept at arms length, but stuffed into Israel proper and endless bad-faith talks and manufactured outrage keep the situation relatively static. as you've rightly pointed out, Israel would be insane to allow a group of people who openly espouse the destruction of their country to "come on home", especially when that home is at best, disputed, and at worst... not their (the Palestinians') home. After all, 63 years gone is still gone when there is, let's face it, no chance of allowing a sudden Arab majority into Israel, anymore than a nascent USA would have allowed GB to send a majority of their citizenry to the 'former colony'.
The only way to justify this IS to take the psychotically long view of millenia, and once people raise that issue it ceases to be a meaningful political discussion. It may be that in the chaos that comes with a decrease in oil production in the ME, unable to meet demand (whenever that is) does destroy the region, or Israel, but it's pretty certain that with little education and even less to call their home... the Palestinians are dead. Their "brothers" won't have them, and without homes to assimilate into, they'll be an increasingly fictionalized group, increasingly impoverished due to corruption, and isolated by the actions of their neighbors. In short, the best they can hope for is to be a proxy for other Arab states if they're ever mad enough to go to war with Israel again.
The only country in that region that has strategic backing is Israel... and unlike transient trading partners for Iran, the USA has a voting bloc that won't back off support. In addition, as long as there is a drop of oil, or China is a perceived threat they can count on USA support... going to war against Israel is just a grand suicide attempt for the nations in the region that are likely to implode. I can only say that I sincerely hope it's not within my natural lifetime.
Sorry qsa, you're entitled to your opinions, but they don't change or reflect reality any more than a flawed physical theory changes or reflects nature. You can waste your energy in this fashion, or focus on a plan for other Middle Eastern countries that keeps them from imploding when the oil runs dry, or from being conquered if it becomes scarce and demand far exceeds supply.
We are discussing what is good for US in regard to its policy towards the ME problem. You might not live to see the consequences of some of the bad decisions but I am sure you don’t wish it for your children or your country men or anybody else for that matter. I believe that you as highly educated man as you sound you should have the welfare of all the people at heart. I was advocating that the US have not only to look at the benefits of even handed policy but also to be morally correct just like any good person should be. From my experience if you don’t solve the root of the problem it will come back to you again and again even in a worse condition, just like a disease. Many of the statements that you made implicitly support what I was saying. But you are definitely wrong when you said manufactured outrage, they are as real as they come.
nismaratwork said:By the time a "wait and see" strategy could pay off, there will be no oil, and therefore nothing of strategic value in the ME. If there are minor uprisings, the USA might not act, but China would crush that region for the sake of oil. The ME has no future.
qsa said:China historically had not had this kind of aggressive stand towards other people. My hope is that all humans have prosperous future together. Especially with this new age of globalization through technology and knowledge which should pull us off our animalistic habits and usher us into a new age of true humanitarian sprit. Otherwise, we are all doomed, eventually.