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Originally posted by Pseudonym
Scott and FZ: You seem to be following the exact line of reasoning detailed in another ICR paper - Probability
I would appreciate your thoughts.
This article makes the same mistake I pointed out earlier. No conclusions can be made based on the odds of something occurring when the odds of all the alternates are exactly the same.
From here, this is where FZ and I disagree. We have discussed this next portion at length and I think just agreed to disagree. But I think there ARE practical situations where the case can be made that the odds of an event or arrangement are LESS than the alternatives. Yes, arguments can be made that this involves subjectivity to establish the uniqueness but this argument, when taken to the extreme, would have us denouncing the most obvious, practical things. So while the line may be hard to draw, it isn't practical to just pretend it doesn't exists.
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