What are they getting for it?Czcibor said:Anyway, I assume the following approach. Drop people:
- in hotter climate
- at a drainage basin of a big river, to allow water transport
- put them more or less spread to avoid over hunting
- first towns would have to be provided with food from outside (dry this meat and sent it to us by boat)
What is the population going to gain by leaving the remaining hunting and moving into the industrial center?Czcibor said:- within a few years, when there is less roaming around sources of meat, but harvest is good enough, organize moving population into some industrial center, surrounded by fields
- leave outside this center only natural resources extraction settlement (mines, dams, forestry, etc.)
-money for paying tax (At start everyone is expected to pay head tax - no wealth differences, no possibility of using anything more advanced)snorkack said:What are they getting for it?
Better employment opportunities. If that is not good enough, then as last resort gov would try to finance such resettling.What is the population going to gain by leaving the remaining hunting and moving into the industrial center?
The only plant that I found online that can grow with 24h of light (yes, tidal lock) is marijuana. But I hope that other plants can survive that too, just no one tries :Dwabbit said:One more thing they should quicly do is study native flora - if the fauna is edible the flora is likely to be as well, perhaps with some specific cooking methods required to get rid of toxins. The seeds from Earth might turn out to be hard to grow on that planet, yet an abundant and diverse supply of local plants could turn out to complement that perfectly.
Czcibor said:Durraken: Unfortunately I use teleports not ships.
You probably still want a 3D printer for more several parts.Czcibor said:Shouldn't I mostly go mass production way, Ford model T approach?
It is completely unclear if there are things you can eat, hunt, or digest at all. I would not rely on that.Czcibor said:I opt rifle and hunting for megafuna.
Algae are very easy to grow.Czcibor said:Aren't algae to complicated to grow? Comparing to simple plants?
Not bad, but also unrealistic. The semiconductor industry including all other industries that are necessary employs much more than 1 million people. You cannot produce a smartphone from scratch (including mining and so on) even if you carefully select 1 million people on Earth and give them access to everything we have built here on earth. On a different planet? Forget it for generations, until your population is up and you have enough free ressources (e. g. not necessary for food production and other vital things) to focus on high-tech.Czcibor said:As model I assumed modified logistic function, with in long run increasing the limit. I assumed that losses caused by lack of scale economics, are being compensated by ultra high saving rate, good but ruthless governance and brutal elimination of any inefficiencies. (keeping person in prison for years is ineffective, punishing with electroshock not ;) ). Conclusion for such model was a poor first world in not much more than 25 years. Not bad.
Not as good. One time chance to teleport limited amount of stuff (humans, equipment, medication, etc.) from EarthDurakken said:So you have a 2 way teleportation system? If not you're not getting any taxes.
Assuming this is the case there is no reason even think of this as colonization at all because you can just teleport all the materials at will as needed and level all the land as much as you want.
Yes, I see the advantages of this partYou don't even have to worry about treaties, borders, or any type of zoning because no one lives there yet.
I've seen generally papers showing, that bigger cities tend to be more productive (yes, many million metropolises especially). Why do you think I shall spread those people in towns of 100k each?If you're looking for where to teleport and drop these people, humans pretty much spread and then consolidated into 7 (possibly 8) major areas with the major land features being rivers/valleys. Finding such areas is not hard as stand out like a sore thumb, being that you just look for mountains and then find the largest river that flows in the water shed they create. You don't need to look at tectonics or anything else because such places are created by them not having the problem that you'd look for for those.
May you rephrase/explain?You don't need to look at tectonics or anything else because such places are created by them not having the problem that you'd look for for those.
True - but before domestication, they can start gathering plants and trying them out - if they landed in a mediterannean desert island (or even better in some tropical island) they might find edible plants they can just pick up in the wild, and then work on domestication etc. - this goves them a chance to survive if their imported seeds don't grow too well, or starts out fine but is suddenly wiped out by a disease, like it happened to some crops on earth.Czcibor said:The only plant that I found online that can grow with 24h of light (yes, tidal lock) is marijuana. But I hope that other plants can survive that too, just no one tries :D
I thought about the same, including also domestication of local animals. For sure it should be tried. However, there is only one serious drawback. Time needed - to do it well.
Russians needed 50 years to domesticate fox:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domesticated_silver_fox
If so many years are needed - then it would not matter in crucial days of the colony. But I should include a few of such organisms in latter days.
Czcibor said:Not as good. One time chance to teleport limited amount of stuff (humans, equipment, medication, etc.) from Earth
I've seen generally papers showing, that bigger cities tend to be more productive (yes, many million metropolises especially). Why do you think I shall spread those people in towns of 100k each?
May you rephrase/explain?
Conservation of knowledge in tons of different areas should not be neglected. This knowledge can help to survive.wabbit said:Survival would be a greater concern to me if I was there, than computers and books : )
Presumably, for short series, but I think they are quite slow.mfb said:You probably still want a 3D printer for more several parts.
I have a feeling that you a trying to convince me that it's impossible to produce mobiles the way as we do with a smaller population. I fully agree with that. The problem is whether some different production methods are possible. I especially mean cutting corners, accepting uniform, simpler, bulky products, etc.Not bad, but also unrealistic. The semiconductor industry including all other industries that are necessary employs much more than 1 million people. You cannot produce a smartphone from scratch (including mining and so on) even if you carefully select 1 million people on Earth and give them access to everything we have built here on earth. On a different planet? Forget it for generations, until your population is up and you have enough free ressources (e. g. not necessary for food production and other vital things) to focus on high-tech.
Agreed on both : ) robust, low maintenance ways of keeping that knowledge stored and accessible would be a very valuable thing to bring from earth. But still, the chances of survival aren t that great, and if you are in a sinking boat and throwing some of your books overboard is what it takes yo survive...mfb said:You probably want to feed the local life (if present at all) to your other animals first before humans try it.
Conservation of knowledge in tons of different areas should not be neglected. This knowledge can help to survive.
Developed countries rely on agricultural machinery, fertilizers etc, and the industries behind that. These will take time to establish. Perhaps the percent of farmers in the early days of settlement of the western US is a better guide.Czcibor said:Do you think that more than a few years would be necessary to get food production in order and free over 90% population for industry and services? (developed countries now use something like 2% of population for agriculture, and here because of extensive use of land in long run even less should be needed)
I wondered about preserving knowledge. How big would be all useful knowledge that you can quickly backup?mfb said:You probably want to feed the local life (if present at all) to your other animals first before humans try it.
Conservation of knowledge in tons of different areas should not be neglected. This knowledge can help to survive.
I mean studies like this:Durakken said:I have no idea what such a paper would mean by "productive" as I hardly think of churning out millions of built in obsolete widgits being built as "productive" nor do I see how one could fairly make that assessment that it is a population number given that it's where all the factories with heavy machines to produce those widgits are... on the other hand compare that to the relatively low population of farmer who do a productive thing such as feed the world many times over, using that as a metric low population wins out.
But if we look at how humans spread and all like that we generally like to be in groups of 250 to 500 max and divide along those lines So if you're looking for the most productive one might plan some sort of built in system of division that feeds into a center used for trade between these groups while trade within the groups are done in their own area.
Brilliant, thanks, I haven't thought about it.Where rivers that you'd be looking for form is where mountains form. Those mountains are the type that form when they're pushed up due to tectonic activity. In other words. If you are in a river valley like the ones you're looking for you're most likely not going to near a fault line as the fault line is on the other side of the mountains. Likewise if you're in a river valley you have mountains around and mountains are where ore has been pushed to the surface. River Valleys are also often protected from sea level rise for the most part and because mountains are protected from most harsh weather.
You won't need many pipes with 54° bending angle, but if your system needs one, you don't want to set up a factory line to make thousands of them.Czcibor said:Presumably, for short series, but I think they are quite slow.
There are good cheap substitutions for many things, but the low-tech substitutions for computers are abacus and slide-rule. Or cathode-rays but those are expensive. You'll need a 19th- or better 20th-century chemical industry running to make new transistors.(I remember reading a study concerning that in case of running out of copper, it would be necessary to rely on aluminium cables, which just wouldn't be so good. I think in similar line, of making some cheap substitutes)
How would you behave in such case?wabbit said:One thing to consider about your idea of an authoritarian society, is that part of the population may well escape from that harsh rule and try their luck elsewhere, in another valley - i m not sure you d really have the resources to run the kind of police force and surveillance system you d need to prevent that.
Czcibor said:I mean studies like this:
http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2013/why-innovation-thrives-in-cities-0604
Saying that when you double population, then productivity goes up by 130%, so you get net +15%
mfb said:@Durakken: 3D printers cannot print chips (or even single transistors). You can assume some high-tech product that can do it in the future, but then you can assume nano-machines can produce anything you like.
Honestly that are just:Durakken said:It's important to say economic productivity there...
And that's obvious, especially with theot currency. You don't really need to do research on that.
Money is just a substitute for iou item in the future that can be paid by anyone taking part in this group. More people interacting with each will automatically have more people trusting in that money and demanding that money and using that money resulting in the money's value increasing and likewise the "standards of living" are often higher per person averaged out in more populated areas thus you can argue that there is higher "productivity" but that isn't really the case in most situation...
Be more merciful for my feelings, I'm an economist ;)But that's not what this is about so I'll leave that aside... and not get into how much i think economics as studied today is largely nonsense.
That what you mentioned is a nice goal for a stable, affluent society. Let's sacrifice 10 percentage points of GDP and have more fulfilment in life. Just that's not a case when survival matters.Instead I just want to point out that economic productivity is not the same as actually being productive and being a stable thriving civilization that is able to maintain or sustain random groups of people. It should be noted that some of the most productive members of our species were the poorest and would be considered low producing according to an economic modle of productivity.
This being the case it is smarter to build around ideas that worked in the past to create stable colonies. Namely town halls and town squares that reinforced community but let the community dividing into any number of sub-communities around it. Provide a place to go to like a church, not necessarily one, schools are also good for this, but something like that to give the community some sense of belonging to that community and guidance. Once that is done it is more likely people will thrive than and be productive in all senses of the words rather than trying to push on them having to deal with a lot of people all at once that they don't neccessarily like, but have to work with. In fact the more you do that the more likely the colony will splinter and destroy itself or try to attack the authorities.
Czcibor said:Honestly that are just:
-economics of scale (ex. in my country gov spends for primary education of a kid in village 2-3 times, then a kid in a city)
-flexibility of employment (you need 100 properly educated workers for next week for a construction, good luck in finding that in a village of 80 people ;) )
-better spread of new creative ideas, more competition and less monopolies that abuse power
Be more merciful for my feelings, I'm an economist ;)
That what you mentioned is a nice goal for a stable, affluent society. Let's sacrifice 10 percentage points of GDP and have more fulfilment in life. Just that's not a case when survival matters.
Depends on how hostile the environnement is really, and how many are discontented vs buy the sweet promises of democracy tomorrow. In the nicer case with edible flora and temperate climate, I d skip bail and go found a free community based on low tech farming, trade with people in the city (there will be some willing to do business with renegades) and build from there towards higher tech etc. At the other extreme, if leaving the colony is deadly, i might try to overthrow the government. But I ll probably end in one of your prisons anyway : )Czcibor said:How would you behave in such case?
-gov is not corrupted, quite competent, has rather reasonable investment plan, and is obsessed about survival of civilization;
-Technically speaking you volunteered and pledged loyalty to it (which of course may not be so relevant, if those people make you really unhappy, then of course you may claim that you did it under effectively compulsion...); (they had millions of potential volunteers)
-there are some traces of democracy and self governance on local level, there are some vague promises of semi free election on central level in long run, when the situation would cool down;
-if they succeed without you then in long run they have industrial goods, if you try to buy them, then they would in really unfriendly way ask for back taxes.
Your move?
You need:Durakken said:That's the thing... you don't need educated people to do this. Educated people are the ones who will get you killed because more often than not they aren't used to the type of environment nor the willingness to say "that's just how it is" as much as educated people are. You need a large amount of loyal, street smart, but rather dumb people with a small number of smart people who can plan at the top that are trusted by those uneducated people.
Anarcho-capitalist? Are you really certain they are in any way related to economics? I always considered them as a religious movement...Sorry, it's true. My disdain is more for the prattling pseudo-intellectuals than the subject itself... It's the latter that happen to get to say what is "economics" so the subject suffers, much like the subject of morality and other such things that are really interesting subjects that are misunderstood due to pseudo-intellects being listened to while showing nothing gained by it or harming the people who listen...
Though I could be wrong. I've never looked to deeply into theories and all that because they're not very interesting and can be seen to be wrong headed before delving very deep into them. It could also be my encounters with Anarcho-Capitalists v.v
I don't think that people in my generation would appreciate church so much, on last meeting in my university a guy came in T-shirt with Spaghetti Monster and no-one really cared.Nope. Town Halls and Churches are the very first buildings that colonies start building, because it does work on the psychology of humans which keeps the morale up which ups the productivity. They serve very useful functions such as trade centers, community intermingling, information dissemination, fortifications, etc... Whatever you lose in base resources to build these structures you gain in overall efficiency.
Also consider that cities as we know them don't build up instantly...Let's say you have a string 25km of land represented each by 1 letter of the alphabet:
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXY
You build the "city" at "M". with say 4 quadrants each with a max 500 people.
When the colonists get 500 people they're going to split into a group that stay and group that leaves.
This first group with start move out to get growing land so they'll move to "L" and "N" with farms
ABCDEFGHIJK=^=OPQRSTUVWXY
^ = main colony
= = farm
+ = village
But some will want to move further away and go to "A" and "Y" and establish villages
+BCDEFGHIJK=^=OPQRSTUVWX+
Then as trade and more groups divide and development you'll get this...
+=CDEF+HIJK=^=OPQR+TUVW=+
And then...
++CDE=+=IJK+^+OPQ=+=UVW++
Then...
++C+E=+=I+=^^^=+Q=+=U+W++
It's a pretty simple pattern where it is the consolidation of stable smaller groups over time with trade through a stable center that makes a colony grow and be extremyl successful. Although 25km is a bit small to apply this model to accurately. As it goes more along the lines of pushing out farmers into further out farming areas and building walls around the previous farming areas incorporating them into the city proper. The other "villages" are usually further out, about 30km and are eventually absorbed into the largest city in the area.
Escaping would be possible and damn easy. But all duties for you would be according to contract. In the moment of departure there would be rumours that presumably there might be more chances to teleport. (they are the second group that organizes mass teleportation) Do you think that in such situation many people would be willing to join first, and later defect? Not mentioning that people who would do their work, would presumably look at you as a free rider.wabbit said:Depends on how hostile the environnement is really, and how many are discontented vs buy the sweet promises of democracy tomorrow. In the nicer case with edible flora and temperate climate, I d skip bail and go found a free community based on low tech farming, trade with people in the city (there will be some willing to do business with renegades) and build from there towards higher tech etc. At the other extreme, if leaving the colony is deadly, i might try to overthrow the government. But I ll probably end in one of your prisons anyway : )
That's the sad thing with tyranny - it breeds ingratitude :)Czcibor said:Do you think that in such situation many people would be willing to join first, and later defect?.
If you were given gov cards - how would you weed out such ungrateful people?wabbit said:That's the sad thing with tyranny - it breeds ingratitude :)
Czcibor said:You need:
-people who adapt to new environment and learn fast
-creative ideas (how to build that damn mobile phone out of sticks :D ?)
-people who can be retrained easily
-who understand why there is going to be a hardship at start, but would work for some far away goal
I'd pick up intelligent ones, that agree with the whole project.
Anarcho-capitalist? Are you really certain they are in any way related to economics? I always considered them as a religious movement...
Technical info: in academic setting Austrian School (Anarcho-Capitalists official source of inspiration) is nowadays considered as a heterodox school, which is very polite way of saying that they are not being treated too seriously by anyone within the scientific mainstream.
I don't think that people in my generation would appreciate church so much, on last meeting in my university a guy came in T-shirt with Spaghetti Monster and no-one really cared.
I toyed with ideas like such. The drawback was that at the end I end up with city center full of tiny huts. Or I have to demolish a fully good cottages to build there apartments. Additionally in my story in long run (after over 30 years) there is 4 child policy, which boost the population somewhat.
Idea for the capitol:
You are not allowed in build in the zone for the city center at start.
You build villages in the place that would be suburbs.
You place a whole zone for industry, based on wind direction
You build a city in shape of a triangle - one side touches industrial district
First tiny huts, later, when tech improves, taller and taller buildings (your city center effectively moves)
You leave a place for rail / metro
So you would work, pay your taxes and after work point out some shortcomings? Without seriously trying to undermine system? No one would mind, at least officially it would be even encouraged.Durakken said:"intelligent" yes. "educated" no.
Also you want a limited amount of a certain type of intelligent type because they aren't good to have around... Basically don't take people like me along unless I'm in the top or I'm going to cause trouble, not because I'm trying to cause trouble, but because I see the top's flaws and have no problem pointing it out. I may be intelligent, but you don't want people like me in those positions as that will wreck the society or waste space on the teleport. If you keep people like me to the top we're very useful otherwise we're a detriment.
Yes, it fashionable in net.Other schools are only slightly less nuttier to me. I just come across AnCaps more often.
Seems reasonable.That's not necessarily true, but I'm not arguing necessarily for a church, rather a similar place. You can have a conference hall where every week some expert gives a lecture on some topic that is useful information for people to know and understand. It's the communal aspect that is important, not the dogma. Although that is a dangerous game if done incorrectly.
You just use a bit too futuristic tech for the setting.If you bring those gene. mod trees and they work you somewhat solve the problem by cutting down the trees when you need to expand and then you get to use that as a resource too.
As far as the plan you have is that it ignores that you're trying to create an industrial society without an idustry or any way to really establish industry. This is especially true if you don't take 3d printers and such because people would return to the way they ran their businesses before which is that they'd work out of their house which means "industry" and "population" centers are 1 and the same. On the other hand if you have the 3D printers the goal there is more for processing raw materials into useable 3D printing material...which would avoid industry.
Defend against whom?Also, pretty sure trianglular cities aren't easy to defend, but I'm not sure. I've never seen one.
There may well be some nutty anarcho-capitalists but there is nothing nutty about anarcho-capitalism as such. Economically it is grounded in Austrian Economics which is a very respectable tradition of great rigor, though it is dismissed by some of its opponents - but that's politics, not economics.Durakken said:Other schools are only slightly less nuttier to me. I just come across AnCaps more often
Czcibor said:So you would work, pay your taxes and after work point out some shortcomings? Without seriously trying to undermine system? No one would mind, at least officially it would be even encouraged.
There must be something wrong with me or you then. :P It's always a clear sign that when I sound reasonable to someone something has gone strangely amiss :DSeems reasonable.
You just use a bit too futuristic tech for the setting.
Defend against whom?
That's why I stick with contemporary tech and psionics. It's less weird ;)Durakken said:I don't know the setting, but the stuff I'm talking about is between a decade and 2 score away (yay finally got to use score! SCORE!), but if that how your universes is whatever works. I had to artificially mandate no immortality, brain uploads, etc in my universe to even start to think of stories i could tell.
Megafauna that strays towards a city is called BBQ. (it can be hunted using a spear thrower, a rifle is enough)Warm planets tend to have Mega Fauna... Mega Fauna tends to be dangerous.
A few bandits yes, but no outright rebellion.Also other colonies/colonists and separatists. Never trust people to do what you want them to do even if they want to do it and it is the best thing they could ever do and they will become filthy rich doing it... Just saying.
For allegedly rigorous school they have a surprising tradition of avoid econometric models... Yes, as if that what they proclaim can be put mostly into anecdotes, and not put in any testable mathematical model.wabbit said:There may well be some nutty anarcho-capitalists but there is nothing nutty about anarcho-capitalism as such. Economically it is grounded in Austrian Economics which is a very respectable tradition of great rigor, though it is dismissed by some of its opponents - but that's politics, not economics.