- #71
Ken G
Gold Member
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I don't think we can say when a prediction probably isn't correct, we simply have to test it. What is the track record of theories that we thought were probably not correct, versus ones we probably thought were? It's cherry picking, but still I'd say that track record is not good at all. For example:Drakkith said:Hi Ken. What are your thoughts on when we can reasonably say that the predictions of GR probably aren't correct?
We thought for thousands of years that geocentric models were probably correct and would not significantly change in the future.
We thought for hundreds of years that Galilean relativity was probably correct, so when Maxwell's equations treated the speed of light as a constant of the theory, most physicists thought that had to be incorrect.
Eddington thought that Chandrasekhar's theory of white dwarfs was probably incorrect because it predicted a maximum mass, above which no static solution was possible without drastic changes to the star. He reasoned that something missing from Chandrasekhar's approach would guarantee stability.
Einstein thought that quantum mechanics had to be wrong because it violated local realism.
And so on.