- #106
mathwonk
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If you think 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 has essentially no chance of occurring as the winning numbers in a lottery, then you have just answered why the lottery is not a good bet. I.e. every other choice is just as unlikely as this one in a fair lottery.
It is ironic that Ms. Vos Savant would make this simple mistake since she rode to fame on a probability question that stumped some mathematicians (including me) as follows:
Suppose there are three doors and a prize lies behind one of them, and you have one choice. After you indicate your preferred choice the moderator opens another door with nothing behind it, leaving two doors still closed, yours and one other. Then you have the opportunity of keeping to your original choice or changing it.
What should you do, and why?
It is ironic that Ms. Vos Savant would make this simple mistake since she rode to fame on a probability question that stumped some mathematicians (including me) as follows:
Suppose there are three doors and a prize lies behind one of them, and you have one choice. After you indicate your preferred choice the moderator opens another door with nothing behind it, leaving two doors still closed, yours and one other. Then you have the opportunity of keeping to your original choice or changing it.
What should you do, and why?
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