Is North Korea's Defiance of U.N. Sanctions Pushing Us Closer to War?

[turbo]

Let's look at reality. NK cannot even feed its own people, so how can it afford to mobilize and feed and supply its own army to wage a war? They are powerless. Does the phrase "paper tiger" ring a bell? The incessant saber-rattling by NK's "leader" is ridiculous, and it appears to be motivated by a desire for aid and appeasement. Fear-mongering over the NK situation is counter-productive. They aren't a threat to the US, and we should stop acting like we need to counter their moves. (Kind of like a kindergarten student calling out Mike Tyson.)

 

[Equate]

Whenever they want to have a serious talk about reconciliation with the South, which I think could have happened already by now if we had been less antagonistic.

Good point.




PS Your avatar is quite annoying.

 

[math_04]

I guess North Korea just proved us right;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...orea-claims-US-could-provoke-nuclear-war.html

It believes that America has nuclear missiles aimed at them and furthermore that America wants to start a nuclear war.

 

[Office_Shredder]

Let's look at reality. NK cannot even feed its own people, so how can it afford to mobilize and feed and supply its own army to wage a war? They are powerless. Does the phrase "paper tiger" ring a bell? The incessant saber-rattling by NK's "leader" is ridiculous, and it appears to be motivated by a desire for aid and appeasement. Fear-mongering over the NK situation is counter-productive. They aren't a threat to the US, and we should stop acting like we need to counter their moves. (Kind of like a kindergarten student calling out Mike Tyson.)

North Korea drops 5+ billion a year on its military. It can definitely feed its army if it needs to, especially given how the regime doesn't care about malnutrition in the general population anyway.

Nobody's said North Korea is going to attack the US, so I don't know why you think that. More probable is North Korea attacking South Korea, which happens to be a US ally. North Korea could be a threat to Japan, and has made a point of demonstrating (or trying to) a capability of hitting Japan with missiles

 

[kyleb]

What about the arm race in that region? NK wouldn't be the only one to expand its military powers.

NK isn't the only one expanding it's military powers, but I don't see how getting worked up about testing a nuke is doing anything but inflaming that situation.

Wow, that's a pretty naive statement. He's only detonating nukes and shooting rockets over other countries. Nothing to worry about you say? The term "detached from reality" comes to mind.

How many "rockets"? I recall one which went over Japan, but that could well have been a technical malfunction for all I know. As for detonating nukes, surely you know we have done plenty of nuclear weapon testing ourselves?

Who's going to "topple him" though, and what makes you think it'd be done so quickly. How long did it take to catch Sadam, again?

Saddam was topped shortly after we set out to do it, and had he launched a nuke, it would have united the the better part of the world to make an example out of him. Granted, he could have still made it to his spider hole, but even as it was he didn't live much longer. Put simply; were "Dear Leader" to launch a nuke he'd soon be a dead leader, with North Korea reintegrated under the government of the south South in short order, his life's work would be systematically dismantled.

PS Your avatar is quite annoying.

Huh, I've received a few complements on it before and never a complaint, so I hope you don't take it personally if I leave it up. I made it one day while pondering the concept of duality. Perhaps if you consider it from that perspective you might be more comfortable with it, I find it soothing myself.

I do thank both you and CRGreathouse for agreeing with me on various points, I had been wondering if I was the only one here who finds this NK talk heavy on handwaving.

I guess North Korea just proved us right;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...orea-claims-US-could-provoke-nuclear-war.html

It believes that America has nuclear missiles aimed at them and furthermore that America wants to start a nuclear war.

Looks more to me like the NK government is just making exaggerated arguments to rally its masses around it, which is hardly original.

Nobody's said North Korea is going to attack the US, so I don't know why you think that. More probable is North Korea attacking South Korea, which happens to be a US ally. North Korea could be a threat to Japan, and has made a point of demonstrating (or trying to) a capability of hitting Japan with missiles

I highly doubt they could ever fool themselves into beliving anything like that would go over well for them.

 

[Office_Shredder]

I highly doubt they could ever fool themselves into beliving anything like that would go over well for them.

Yeah, because the US keeps aggravating them and makes it clear that we'll step in and deal with the situation if that happens.

 

[kyleb]

Again, I don't see making a scene out of stating the obvious is doing anything but reinforcing their desire for a strong nuclear deterrent, I'd much rather let them feel comfortable enough to find other things to do with their time.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Again, I don't see making a scene out of stating the obvious is doing anything but reinforcing their desire for a strong nuclear deterrent, I'd much rather let them feel comfortable enough to find other things to do with their time.

What is the difference between attempting deterence and failing versus not attempting deterence? They wind up with the missile technology either way right? Do you think they will slow down development without pressure from the US? South Korea and Japan are not just going to decide they are ok with this and back off so there will be pressure put on them either way. Do you seriously think that without the US trying to stop them N. Korea will just get bored and move on to other things? That seems rather laughable.

 

[kyleb]

Do you seriously think that without the US trying to stop them N. Korea will just get bored and move on to other things?

I think that us pressuring NK to stop doing what we have done far more of is only furthering their defiance. I've yet to see a reason to believe otherwise.

 

[CRGreathouse]

PS [Kyleb's] avatar is quite annoying.

In Firefox (and possibly in your browser of choice), pressing [Esc] makes animations on the page stop.

 

[math_04]

Look, invading North Korea is not viable but certainly, there has to be a line drawn to North Korea and if they cross that line, it should be communicated that they will face serious consequences. As much as the words 'nuclear deterrent' seems music to some ears, we cannot kid ourselves of how dangerous the regime of Kim Jong Il is. Appeasement and slap on the wrists will further embolden the regime to escalate the situation knowing that little will be done.

With nuclear weapons, it takes only one strike at a Japanese or South Korean city to kill hundreds of thousands if not a million and cause widespread devastation. Imagine if they test a missile armed with a nuclear warhead and knowing how crude their missiles are, who knows where they might explode. The scenario of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead will come to pass; once they are confident in the nuclear bombs and once they develop the capability to deliver a payload on the missiles...there is no going back. This kind of war can erupt without warning; a small cross border incident, a naval engagement, new sanctions etc can all escalate very quickly to a nuclear conflict which will result in unimaginable casualties. If we step aside and allow North Korea to further threaten America, South Korea and Japan, allow it to further perfect its nuclear capabilities while its own population is on the brink of starvation (so much for the communist ideology) without drawing a line and standing up to them, then we are cowards.

And kyleb, a militaristic, irrational dictatorship does not move on to other things. It remains a militaritic irrational dictatorship that continues to invest heavily in arms, continues to build nuclear bombs while its own people are dying from living on less than a loaf of bread every day. Kim Jong Il and his associates have their eyes fixed on a forceful reunification of the Korea and their blind hatred for everything un-North Korean will not go away just because we do nothing about it.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

I think that us pressuring NK to stop doing what we have done far more of is only furthering their defiance. I've yet to see a reason to believe otherwise.

This is the second time you have side stepped my questions.
Will they not achieve their goals with or without pressure from the US? And is it not preferable to attempt deterence even if it is not successful rather than simply allow the inevitable to happen uncontested?

 

[Tibarn]

It's mostly posturing. With Seoul within artillery range of North Korea and Japan close enough to fire a rocket barrage or missiles at, North Korea can destroy several cities in South Korea and Japan if the US threatens to invade. Nukes are just another deterrent. North Korea's defense comes down to "attack us and we'll destroy your allies". They know well that they stand no chance in a full-scale war against the United States. China certainly won't back them if they launch a first strike.

Essentially, they're in a perfect position to piss off the international community and win nice little propaganda victories against the United States with no fear of reprisal. We can threaten North Korea all we want, but it's not worth losing tens or even hundreds of thousands of South Korean and Japanese civilians unless they really do something drastic. I don't think the North Korean government is nearly as irrational as they pretend to be.

Don't expect China to do much to restrain North Korea either. Unless North Korea becomes a real threat to China, it serves as an excellent buffer zone to limit US influence. The last thing the Chinese want is an American military presence on their doorstep.

 

[kyleb]

Kim Jong Il and his associates have their eyes fixed on a forceful reunification of the Korea and their blind hatred for everything un-North Korean will not go away just because we do nothing about it.

How do you figure? That would be like Saddam and his associates invading Kuwait without thinking he had the green light from us, only multiple times stupider. Seriously, I'd put the odds of it happening at next to nil, whether we keep whining about his nuclear testing or not.

This is the second time you have side stepped my questions.

When you end a series of questions with "That seems rather laughable", it should hardly be a shock that they are taken rhetorically. And I've never intended to side step any of your questions, but rather considered my response to the last one fit to adress the others well enough.

Will they not achieve their goals with or without pressure from the US?

Again, I think that us pressuring NK is only convincing them to set their nuclear weapons aspirations even higher. If you want a more direct answer than that I'll have to resort to my magic 8-ball.

And is it not preferable to attempt deterence even if it is not successful rather than simply allow the inevitable to happen uncontested?

When attempted deterrence seems counterproductive, I'd prefer to avoid it.

Besides, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoF518hBFjU"?

Seriously though, I'm not suggesting we do anything but our best from keeping nuclear weapons technology and materials out of NK's hands, I'm just don't see any good coming from making a big deal about their testing what they already have.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Again, I think that us pressuring NK is only convincing them to set their nuclear weapons aspirations even higher. If you want a more direct answer than that I'll have to resort to my magic 8-ball.

When you said that you think it would only make them more defiant in their persuit I did not see any qualitative difference to the outcome between NK striving defiantly for advanced nuclear weapons and simply striving for them in general. As for setting their goals higher I doubt that the US has much to do with that or that they would not do so absent US pressure. Local diplomatic dysfunction seems to accomplish that all on its own.

When attempted deterrence seems counterproductive, I'd prefer to avoid it.

Besides, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoF518hBFjU"?

Seriously though, I'm not suggesting we do anything but our best from keeping nuclear weapons technology and materials out of NK's hands, I'm just don't see any good coming from making a big deal about their testing what they already have.

I don't see it as being counter productive since I don't see any reason to believe that NK would back down on its nuclear weapons program without US involvement.
I think that what we are seeing from NK is a want for attention as opposed to lack of it. In most cases not giving attention to the attention seeker is an appropriate strategy but some attention seeking actions just can not be ignored. I would consider launching test missiles over your neighbours yard one of those types of action. A different strategy for diplomatic intervention may be required but this would have to be done with cooperation from South Korea and Japan who understandably are rather more upset and worried about this than the US.



And are you making fun of me? >:0
;-)

 

[mheslep]

... Kim Jong Il and his associates have their eyes fixed on a forceful reunification of the Korea and their blind hatred for everything un-North Korean will not go away just because we do nothing about it.

How do you figure? That would be like Saddam and his associates invading Kuwait without thinking he had the green light from us, only multiple times stupider. Seriously, I'd put the odds of it happening at next to nil, whether we keep whining about his nuclear testing or not...

Would you then favor the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula? The US has some five brigades there.

 

[kyleb]

I don't see it as being counter productive since I don't see any reason to believe that NK would back down on its nuclear weapons program without US involvement.

In my expereance, people tend to get defensive when they are threatened.

I would consider launching test missiles over your neighbours yard one of those types of action.

How many "missiles"? I recall one which went over Japan, but that could have been a technical malfunction for all I know.

Would you then favor the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula? The US has some five brigades there.

No, I was taking that troop presence into account when making my estimate of the stupidity of NK attacking.

 

[Count Iblis]

I think we already tried that plan with Hitler.

In case of Germany, we tried something like the current plan. Just after WWI, Germany was placed under severe sanctions that most historians agree went way to far.

 

[rootX]

In case of Germany, we tried something like the current plan. Just after WWI, Germany was placed under severe sanctions that most historians agree went way to far.

I think it was completely different. North Korea have access to diplomatic negotiations and aids from other countries unlike Germany but NK chose to reject them.

But, ignoring NK looks really similar to ignoring Hitler.

 

[Count Iblis]

I think it was completely different. North Korea have access to diplomatic negotiations and aids from other countries unlike Germany but NK chose to reject them.

But, ignoring NK looks really similar to ignoring Hitler.

Yes, I agree that the cases are different. But we have to realize that Hitler was ignored after a long period of a hard line approach when it wasn't necessary.

In case of North Korea, we seem to have forgotten that before Kim tested a nuke he attempted to launch a satellite. The US initially failed to get backing for a strong UN resolution condemning that, because China argued that this would be unnecessarily provocative. And only after some time did the US manage to convince China to vote in favor of a UN resolution to condemn the launch.

Kim then decided to test a nuke. So, you have to ask yourself about the rationale of condemning North Korea for that failed satellite launch.

 

[kyleb]

But, ignoring NK looks really similar to ignoring Hitler.

How so? It's not like we would be offering him his Sudetenland.

 

[Tibarn]

No use comparing Kim Jong Il to Adolf Hitler. Kim Jong Il doesn't have nearly the resources or the relatively weak neighbors Hitler had. He knows well that China won't back him if he tries to attack South Korea or Japan. Unlike the Korean War, North Korea would have to take on the United States on its own this time around. He can squawk all he wants but there is a line and I doubt he'll cross it. Unlike Hitler, he doesn't stand a chance in an all-out war.

 

[kyleb]

Exactly, and thinking the idea of historical examples though; I am at a loss as to come up with any nation ever making such a colossally stupid decision to launch a war while in a comparable position to that which NK is stuck in. Again, best I can tell, they just want a big enough bomb and a reliable enough delivery system to make sure everyone would consider it a stupid move to attack them, and I am at a loss as to find reason to believe otherwise.

 

[LowlyPion]

I don't think North Korea is in any position to undertake a war.

They want to beat their chests, because it gives them international leverage. They are a really destitute nation.

For instance, use Google Earth to actually look about over there. The thing that I find striking is not what's there. But what is not there ... Cars. Not parked, not on the roads, mostly not about anywhere. And along their coastal defenses. Boats. I'd venture to say that half the patrol boats are feathered and beached on land cradles. And their launch sites, are pitiful, compared to the Kennedy launch facilities and the Johnson Space Center in Houston.

Now maybe the satellite pictures were taken on a Sunday and everyone was sleeping in ... but I found it an eyeopening view of a country with apparently few resources. There are some organized placemarks of North Korea that can lead you to a number of highlights.

 

[Topher925]

I don't think North Korea is in any position to undertake a war.

They want to beat their chests, because it gives them international leverage. They are a really destitute nation.

For instance, use Google Earth to actually look about over there. The thing that I find striking is not what's there. But what is not there ... Cars. Not parked, not on the roads, mostly not about anywhere. And along their coastal defenses. Boats. I'd venture to say that half the patrol boats are feathered and beached on land cradles. And their launch sites, are pitiful, compared to the Kennedy launch facilities and the Johnson Space Center in Houston.

Now maybe the satellite pictures were taken on a Sunday and everyone was sleeping in ... but I found it an eyeopening view of a country with apparently few resources. There are some organized placemarks of North Korea that can lead you to a number of highlights.

There's a big difference between conventional war and nuclear war. These days, you don't need to storm the beaches of a country in order to kill millions of people. NK is developing nukes once again and now has the means to deliver them even though the majority of the country is (barely) living off of foreign aid. NK's leadership would have to be insane to attack another country given their position. But guess what? They are insane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/iiLS-AlfO30&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/iiLS-AlfO30&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

 

[Equate]

In Firefox (and possibly in your browser of choice), pressing [Esc] makes animations on the page stop.

Not in Chrome...

But that's all right, I think I got used to it.

 

[kyleb]

NK's leadership would have to be insane to attack another country given their position. But guess what? They are insane.

This reminds me of the claims of Saddam's supposed WMD aspirations. How have you reached your conclusion? I didn't find your MadTV clip convincing.

But that's all right, I think I got used to it.

Good to hear.

 

[Moridin]

Rather, at least it wouldn't be egging them on.

Would you ignore a vicious and clearly agitated grizzly bear standing outside your fragile mobile home?

 

[Count Iblis]

I don't think NK has the means to deliver nukes at all. They can barely explode a nuclear device with weeks of preparation. That's not the same as having a miniaturized device that you can put on a missile which will survive the launch and will be able to re-enter the atmosphere and survive that too and then explode at the right place.

They have much more work to do on their nukes and their missiles are not up to the job either. Their attempt to launch a satellite failed. Also their missiles work on liquid fuel which means that they need to be fueld days in advance. So, even if they could deliver a nuke in the future, it still won't pose a military threat, unless they manage to make solid fuel missiles.

 

[drankin]

I don't think NK has the means to deliver nukes at all. They can barely explode a nuclear device with weeks of preparation. That's not the same as having a miniaturized device that you can put on a missile which will survive the launch and will be able to re-enter the atmosphere and survive that too and then explode at the right place.

They have much more work to do on their nukes and their missiles are not up to the job either. Their attempt to launch a satellite failed. Also their missiles work on liquid fuel which means that they need to be fueld days in advance. So, even if they could deliver a nuke in the future, it still won't pose a military threat, unless they manage to make solid fuel missiles.

So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

 

[rootX]

So are you suggesting we just wait for them to get their technology up to speed before we intervene? Kind of like waiting for a criminal to load his gun before taking him down to me.

As I understand, they are assuming that region will be stablize and NK wouldn't go for technologies (or is not capable) if we don't interfere. I tend not to agree with that assumption.

 

[Tibarn]

Even if North Korea had the means to deliver a nuclear payload to Japan or South Korea (or even the US), to do so would be suicide. If Kim Jong Il was stupid enough to seriously contemplate the idea, his subordinates would be more likely to depose him than comply. He's taunting us. It's a media circus and North Korea is the center of attention. We can be stern and pile on the sanctions, but any military action against North Korea has close to a 100% chance of leading to the death of tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea and Japan (keep in mind that Seoul is within artillery range of NK).

As extravagant as North Korea's actions may seem, there is a certain line that I don't think they'll cross. They're more rational than they let on.

 

[drankin]

Even if North Korea had the means to deliver a nuclear payload to Japan or South Korea (or even the US), to do so would be suicide. If Kim Jong Il was stupid enough to seriously contemplate the idea, his subordinates would be more likely to depose him than comply. He's taunting us. It's a media circus and North Korea is the center of attention. We can be stern and pile on the sanctions, but any military action against North Korea has close to a 100% chance of leading to the death of tens or even hundreds of thousands of civilians in South Korea and Japan (keep in mind that Seoul is within artillery range of NK).

As extravagant as North Korea's actions may seem, there is a certain line that I don't think they'll cross. They're more rational than they let on.

You're assumptions may be correct but that is all they are... assumptions. Dangerous assumptions. A lot of lives could be resting on... assumptions.

 

[math_04]

I feel like punching Kim Jong Il in the face and telling him to stop acting like a kid who needs attention. Too bad he has a million strong army and a couple of nukes to throw around. But then again, I keep thinking if this guy is serious about starting a nuclear war, we are in for a very cold winter in the East. I would also like to believe they are rational and are just attention seekers but we have to consider the other side as well. For the first time in history, we have an aggressive, totalitarian dictatorship that threatens neighbouring countries with nuclear weapons which is scary.

 

[Tibarn]

You're assumptions may be correct but that is all they are... assumptions. Dangerous assumptions. A lot of lives could be resting on... assumptions.

That's the usual problem with making decisions with incomplete knowledge. On the one hand, South Korea and Japan are in for an unpleasant surprise if Kim Jong Il decides to launch a nuclear strike after stockpiling nuclear weapons. On the other hand, attacking North Korea would prompt a retaliatory strike against South Korea and Japan, not to mention the possibility of angering China. The worst case scenario for either situation is the death of at least hundreds of thousands of civilians.

For the first time in history, we have an aggressive, totalitarian dictatorship that threatens neighbouring countries with nuclear weapons which is scary.

Still not quite as scary as the Cold War, with that little misunderstanding over putting nuclear missiles in Cuba.