Is the Look-Elsewhere Effect Similar to Playing Pool Without Calling Shots?

  • Thread starter DragonPetter
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It's like playing pool without calling your shots - you may eventually get a ball in, but it's not because you were aiming for that specific ball in that specific pocket. In summary, the look elsewhere effect can be compared to playing pool without calling your shots, where you may eventually hit a ball in, but it's not due to intentional aiming.
  • #1
DragonPetter
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Would it be an appropriate analogy to say that the look else where effect is like shooting pool without calling your shots?

You will eventually hit a ball in if you just keep hitting the cue ball hard enough into all of the balls, but its not because you were aiming for that ball into that pocket and so you can't conclude that you are a good pool player.
 
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Err, sort of. It is really a slightly annoying technical problem quite specific to the way particle physicists have decided to present their results, but it is sort of analogous to the 'trials factor' kind of scenario you present (i.e. that low probability events are quite likely to happen if you repeat your experiment lots of times). This is of course well explained by xkcd: http://xkcd.com/882/

The look elsewhere effect is kind of like a continuous version of this effect.
 

FAQ: Is the Look-Elsewhere Effect Similar to Playing Pool Without Calling Shots?

1. What is the "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy"?

The "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy" refers to a statistical phenomenon in scientific research where multiple hypotheses are tested on the same dataset, resulting in an increased likelihood of finding a significant result by chance alone. It is also known as the multiple comparisons problem or the multiple testing problem.

2. How does the "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy" impact scientific research?

The "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy" can lead to false positive results, meaning that a significant finding may not actually be meaningful or true. This can lead to incorrect conclusions and flawed scientific theories. It also increases the chances of publishing biased or misleading results.

3. Is the "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy" a new concept?

No, the concept of the "Look-Elsewhere Effect" has been recognized in statistics for many years. However, with the rise of data-driven research and the use of multiple hypothesis testing, it has become a more prevalent issue in modern scientific research.

4. How can scientists address the "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy" in their research?

To address the "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy", scientists can use methods such as Bonferroni correction, which adjusts the significance level for each test to account for multiple comparisons. They can also use methods such as false discovery rate control or permutation testing to control for the increased chance of false positives.

5. Can the "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy" be completely eliminated in scientific research?

No, it is not possible to completely eliminate the "Look-Elsewhere Effect analogy" in scientific research. However, by being aware of its potential impact and using appropriate statistical methods, scientists can minimize its effects and ensure more reliable and accurate results.

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