Is the probability of us existing really that low?

[MathJakob]

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If you can't be bothered to read all of that, the author comes to the conclusion that the chances of each individual person existing is approximately $1$ in $10^{2,685,000}$ but something bugs me about this... I have a really hard time accepting that approximation because it is simply staggering.

Am I missing something? I understand all the previous things that must have had to happen in order for you to exist which leads to such an outrageous figure but the chances of you existing is about the same as someone shuffling a deck of cards, and guessing the correct layout of each shuffle for all $51!^{20,000}$ shuffles.

I remember watching an episode of numberphile where they said if you had a universe a googolplex metres across, eventually it would be expected to see arrangements of atoms that match exactly the arrange of your atoms thus replicating you exactly. Not sure which is least likely... you existing in the first place, or finding an arrangement of atoms that just so happen to be in the exact same order as you.

Sorry if this isn't clear I'm kinda tired and just wanted to ask others if this is an accurate article

 

[ZombieFeynman]

I think that the article linked is an embarassment to its author.

 

[leroyjenkens]

Well someone had to be here, and it just happened to be me. I think about probability things like that. Like if someone wins the lottery, they may say "what are the chances that it would be me who won the lottery?" Well someone had to win, and no matter who that someone is, they'll think the same thing.

Or if I take a spoonfull of soup which picks up exactly 234,535,234,635 molecules of water. What are the chances I'd pick up that exact number of molecules of water? Pretty low. But I was going to take a spoonful of soup anyway, and I had to get SOME number of molecules of water, it just happened to be that number. If I got a different number, it would have the same extremely low probability.

 

[Evo]

It's nonsense and we can't link to nonsense. Sorry. This fool says they won't even allow people to post about why she is wrong. Buh bye.

 

[LudusRex]

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I would say that the probability of us existing as individual humans is indeed incredibly low, but it is not accurate to compare it to the chances of guessing a specific layout of a deck of cards. The author's comparison between the two is flawed because it assumes that every step in the process of our existence is equally likely, when in reality, many of the steps are dependent on each other and influenced by a variety of factors.

For example, the probability of our parents meeting and producing us is not the same as the probability of shuffling a deck of cards, as it is influenced by their geographical location, social circles, and personal choices. Similarly, the probability of the specific arrangement of atoms in our bodies is not the same as the probability of a specific deck of cards, as it is influenced by genetic factors and environmental conditions.

Furthermore, the concept of a universe a googolplex meters across producing an exact replica of us is based on the assumption that the universe is infinite and contains an infinite number of arrangements of atoms. This is still a theoretical concept and has not been proven.

In conclusion, while the probability of our existence as individuals may seem incredibly low, it is not accurate to compare it to the chances of guessing a specific layout of a deck of cards. Our existence is influenced by a multitude of factors and is not solely based on random chance.