Last Year a Snowstorm, This Year a Hurricane? Really?

In summary: Although NYC does experience storms, this will be my first storm in NYC. I'm not really sure how city folk prepare. Does the power ever go out here? I'm more used to the sort of preparations Evo's described. How am I supposed to stay warm without my space heater?
  • #36
Due to the Frankenstorm nature of Sandy, there will be a confusing flow of information as the storm transitions from a tropical storm to a nor'easter:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues advisories, forecasts, and warnings on tropical
cyclones - the generic term for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions. Sometime
prior to making landfall, Hurricane Sandy is expected to lose its characteristics as a tropical
cyclone and take on the structure of a wintertime low-pressure area. Because the National
Hurricane Center only issues advisories on tropical cyclones, there will be changes in the flow of
information coming out of the NWS when this transition occurs...

Because Sandy is expected to make this transition before reaching the coast, the NWS has
been using non-tropical wind watches and warnings, issued by local NWS Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs), to communicate the wind threat posed by Sandy in the Mid-Atlantic States and
New England. (This is why NHC’s tropical storm warnings extend only into North Carolina.)
The NWS plans to continue using non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local offices in
the Mid-Atlantic States and northward throughout this event. By using non-tropical warnings in
these areas from the start, we avoid or minimize the significant confusion that could occur if the
warning suite changed from tropical to non-tropical in the middle of the event.
When NHC determines that Sandy has become post-tropical, NHC advisory products will cease.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

They say that by using non-tropical watches and warnings, issued by local offices, they will avoid confusion, but I don't agree. I had already been wondering why the advisories hadn't been extended above North Carolina and the only way to figure out why is by reading this PDF. Worse, if the transition prediction is mis-timed:
In the event Sandy remains a tropical cyclone through landfall, NHC advisories and products
would of course continue. There would be no transition, however, from non-tropical wind
warnings issued by the WFOs back to Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings issued by
NHC, since both sets of warnings describe the same wind hazard.
I'm not clear on what exactly that means, but it implies to me that even if Sandy makes landfall as a tropical storm, the NHC still won't be issuing watches/warnings.

This issue is too bad, IMO, because there is no concise tracking and informational source for just big storms. The NHC is an excellent resource -- I'm not sure what they do in the winter, but perhaps their responsibilities should be extended?
 
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  • #37
russ_watters said:
Due to the Frankenstorm nature of Sandy, there will be a confusing flow of information as the storm transitions from a tropical storm to a nor'easter: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

This is too bad, IMO, because there is no concise tracking and informational source for just big storms. The NHC is an excellent resource -- I'm not sure what they do in the winter, but perhaps their responsibilities should be extended?
I agree, one of the most devastating floods in the Houston, TX area was caused by a "tropical storm". No one paid much attention to it, heck, not a hurricane. Then people had to be rescued from the second floor windows of their homes by boats, if they were lucky enough to have a second floor.
 
  • #38
yahoo.com said:
"I can be as cynical as anyone," said Christie (NJ Governor Chris Christie), who declared a state of emergency Saturday. "But when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, you're going to wish you weren't as cynical as you otherwise might have been."
I'm not sure what he means, but I have no doubt he means something.
 
  • #39
Take care, Jimmy. You might be in the bullseye.
 
  • #40
turbo said:
Take care, Jimmy. You might be in the bullseye.
I am in the bullseye. I have water, imperishable food, flashlights, batteries, and a radio. My gas tank is full. I can be as safe as anyone, but when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, I'm not going to wish I wasn't as safe as I otherwise might have been.
 
  • #41
Russ and Jimmy are right in the track of the eye, and others are close to it as well. We're further away but on the north - northeast -eastside, so were expecting lots of rain and high wind. We're supposed to prepare for gusts up to 60 mph, or up to 75 mph in higher elevations.

This might be of interest.
http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanebook.pdf
 
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  • #42
Here are some before pictures.
Our police station. It got flooded out by Irene and only just recently opened again. The brown colored buildings on the left of the picture are on the other side of a river that you can't see.
33madrb.jpg


Another view of the police station.
ipmb04.jpg


The river. It overflowed its banks as a result of Irene.
5s9xu.jpg


The pond. During the cold war, it was disguised to look like a parking lot in order to fool the Ruskies. Irene blew our cover and anyone could easily see the true nature of this body of water.
2rzt3js.jpg
 
  • #43
I just got back from the store... ugh it was awful. So packed. Subway closes in a couple hours, then i'll be stuck in my 1bdrm apartment until the storm blows over. I'm not in an area that had to be evacuated, but I can see the Hudson from my window. Hopefully its not really as bad as they're saying though. But hey, at least classes were canceled for tomorrow.
 
  • #44
And now wall street will be closed tomorrow too. Crazy!
 
  • #45
Jimmy Snyder said:
I am in the bullseye. I have water, imperishable food, flashlights, batteries, and a radio. My gas tank is full. I can be as safe as anyone, but when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, I'm not going to wish I wasn't as safe as I otherwise might have been.

No one is not going to wish they weren't as unsafe as they might not have been.
 
  • #46
Hmm. My mom was really freaking about this, but she always freaks out about weather. was planning on staying at her beach house, which is about four blocks from the beach. Maybe I should just go back to my apartment, which is further inland?
 
  • #47
Chi Meson said:
No one is not going to wish they weren't as unsafe as they might not have been.

Say what?
 
  • #48
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
 
  • #49
SHISHKABOB said:
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
Try again. That doesn't parse, at least not to me. I can't make heads or tails of what you typed.
 
  • #50
I hope this topic is not too serious to joke about.

The models have converged, all on Jimmy Snyder's locale.Best of luck, Jimmy. Stay safe.
 
  • #52
Predictions start to home on Turbo's home as well.
 
  • #53
Sandy had been heading northeast, but now has turned due north. I only just a few minutes ago got an explanation of why it is forecasted to continue turning northwest. There are two issues. First, the jet stream dips south of Sandy coming from the west and then turns north itself, east of Sandy. Thus the shape of the jet stream is a bobby pin with Sandy pinched between the tongs. Second, there is a high pressure system to the northeast of Sandy that will prevent it from heading in that direction. Although we are going to get inundated with enough rain to cause flooding, the worst of it will be about 30 miles south of here. Right now there is a light rain and winds of about 20 - 25 mph.
 
  • #54
Easiest commute ever. This afternoon probably won't be.
 
  • #55
You might stay in a motel tonight.
 
  • #56
D H said:
Try again. That doesn't parse, at least not to me. I can't make heads or tails of what you typed.
Galteeth said:
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/has-a...ided-to-use-even-go-want-to-do-look-more-like
Ah, so it's a more recent version of "All your base are belong to us."

russ_watters said:
Easiest commute ever. This afternoon probably won't be.
I'm surprised your workplace isn't closed today. Most up here in central NJ (including mine) are. Friday we were advised to take our laptops home, so we can still get some work done.
 
  • #57
Redbelly98 said:
I'm surprised your workplace isn't closed today. Most up here in central NJ (including mine) are.
My work site is shut down. Wind is whipping around pretty good. I suspect it will get worse.
 
  • #58
My office is in Plymout Meeting, northwest of the city, so roads are open. And I live another half hour nortwest, so I'll be driving away from the storm on the way home (and up!).

A client in RI emaied early this morning that the need a new study... by Wednesday. Suuuure.

About half of the office is in.
 
  • #59
My wife works in Plymouth Meeting too. She is staying home today.
 
  • #60
Jimmy Snyder said:
Sandy had been heading northeast, but now has turned due north. I only just a few minutes ago got an explanation of why it is forecasted to continue turning northwest. There are two issues. First, the jet stream dips south of Sandy coming from the west and then turns north itself, east of Sandy. Thus the shape of the jet stream is a bobby pin with Sandy pinched between the tongs. Second, there is a high pressure system to the northeast of Sandy that will prevent it from heading in that direction.
This evil combination of events is what makes this such a perfect storm, even more so than the perfect storm of 1991. At this time of year the jet stream over the continental US typically swings south and then back north, with that northward arm east of the coast. That was the situation in 1991 with it's perfect storm. That storm never made landfall.

The cold front that dipped into Texas and Florida late last week would normally have given you on the east coast your first taste of winter, and it would normally have pushed this hurricane off to the northeast, never to make landfall. Instead, that Canadian high off to the northeast is keeping the jet stream and that cold front from moving eastward. Just to give an idea of how crazily inverted things are, right now it is warmer in Boston (55°F) than it is in Jacksonville, Florida (50°F). Even Bangor, Maine and Halifax, Nova Scotia are warmer this morning than is Jacksonville.

The biggest uncertainty in the model predictions was exactly when and where the storm would make that predicted turn to the north and then northwest. The computer models have converged now that the storm has started that turn. Atlantic City appears to be in the crosshairs.

This is going to be rough on Philadelphia, but not near as rough as a landfall on the Delmarva would have been. That would have sent a very nasty tidal surge up the funnel-shaped Delaware Bay. It's also going to be rough on NYC, but not near as rough as a landfall a bit further north would have been. That would have sent a very nasty tidal surge across Long Island Sound. That's still going to happen, but not quite as bad as it could have been.
 
  • #61
Jimmy Snyder said:
My wife works in Plymouth Meeting too. She is staying home today.
But you live in Jersey, right? I wouldn't want to be driving east this afternoon either. Most of our Jersey staff didn't come in.
 
  • #62
russ_watters said:
But you live in Jersey, right? I wouldn't want to be driving east this afternoon either. Most of our Jersey staff didn't come in.
Yes, she takes the PA turnpike from NJ. Going home it would almost due east into the storm. The distinction isn't that strong though since the winds will be from the north.
 
  • #63
Two headlines this morning in the NYTimes

The real story:

Panicked Evacuations Mix With Nonchalance in Hurricane Sandy's Path
By CARA BUCKLEY
In New York City, with memories of last year's less-than-ferocious Hurricane Irene still fresh, some skeptical residents simply would not move.

Irene was pretty bad for our area. Some who didn't take it seriously had to be rescued, or otherwise paid the consequences.

and the Sideshow (or the surreal story):

In Middle of a Messy Election, a Nightmare Makes Landfall
By PETER BAKER
Recounts, contested ballots, an Electoral College at odds with the popular vote: now adding to the campaigns' potential horrors, a freakish storm may warp an election two years in the making.


We now have continuous breezes.
 
  • #64
The cold front that is one of the other ingredients of "Frankenstorm" is moving into the Carolinas. It's sunny but chilly here in SC this morning. To the north of us, there is a winter storm warning for tonight in the mountains north of Asheville NC. Several inches of heavy wet snow are expected. High winds have brought down trees in the area to the south of Asheville.
 
  • #65
Sandy has made a small, but measurable move to the west as it starts to draw its own initial across the northeast. The wind is steady at about 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. and the rain continues light.
 
  • #66
Apparently the maximum sustained winds have increased from 75 to 85 mph, which is unusual. It seems to be related to the hurricane enountering the other systems.

We're supposed to get high winds this afternoon.
 
  • #67
Astronuc said:
Apparently the maximum sustained winds have increased from 75 to 85 mph, which is unusual. It seems to be related to the hurricane enountering the other systems.

That unusual strengthening has been expected. From this morning's 5AM discussion (Hurricane Sandy Discussion #28) sent out by the National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/230256.shtml:

Since the hurricane will traverse the Gulf Stream this morning...and the shear is not too strong at this time...some more strengthening as a tropical cyclone is possible in the next few hours. However...the main mechanism for intensification later today should be baroclinic forcing.

Surface data indicate that a well-marked warm and cold front lie not far to the north and west of the center of Sandy. As the circulation interacts with these fronts...the cyclone should become extratropical later today. Extratropical transition is expected to be complete before the center crosses the coast. However...this transformation will not diminish the overall impacts from winds to hurricane strength...life-threatening storm surge...and flooding rains associated with this dangerous weather system.
​
Note: Those ellipses are not mine.
 
  • #70
I should have pointed out earlier that we had folks calling 911 during the height of the storm. They wanted to be rescued. They were told to sit and wait, because emergency personnel were not going out in the high winds and floods. In some cases, emergency services could not get through because of the flooding.

This is why one takes these storms seriously, and don't go out in the storm -

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-08-29/news/30111251_1_death-toll-separate-deaths-bronx-man
 
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