Polling Margin of Error

[FactChecker]

Sure. Bur when I am looking at Pacific Islander females with some college but not degree, in a particular age and income band, I have chopped the data up so finely I may not be able to correct: if I expect 0.5 in my sample, what do I do if I have two? If I have zero?

Right. So nobody should take it to that extreme.

A sample of 2000 and 11 yes/no questions puts on average one entry per bin. Sometimes you'll get 1, sometimes a few, and sometimes none.

This is why the pollsters don't do this.

I think you mean that they don't use stratified sampling to a ridiculous extreme. They certainly do use stratified sampling.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Their sampling, AFAIK involves clustering. If you remember the term "soccer moms", that is a cluster. If a respondant ends up in that category, by virtue of some of her answers, they integrate over the others. In a sample of 2000. they probably want 20-40 clusters.

If someone is a public sector worker other than a first respnder or member of the military, they have certain voting preferences, and they are more similar to each other than across groups. So you can integrate over age. If someone is unemployers, their voting preferences are very different if they are 25 or 75, so you can't.

 

[FactChecker]

Fine. Let me then ask yet again, how do you beat the √N uncertainty, as hee CNN poll I mentioned claims to.

This discussion hasn't gotten very far. I suggest reading the literature on stratified sampling, where this is discussed in detail with the proper rigor. A standard classic text is Sampling Techniques by William Cochran, although there are many other references.
If the subject is polling to predict vote results, there is one thing to remember: the final vote depends on many of the most recent events like the weather, major world events, the recent optimistic or pessimistic mood of particular voting groups, etc.
No statistical method can accurately predict those effects and it should not try. It should only try to estimate the current state when the poll is taken.