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BobG
Science Advisor
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The only one you left out was Iran. Iran is a Shiite theocracy. If things go bad for the Shiites in Southern Iraq, Iranian involvement would be very likely. That would also be very threatening for the rest of Iraq, especially considering Iraq and Iran fought a ten year war.Smurf said:But there's one thing wrong with this hypothesis, it's assuming that other nations stay out of it. Even if the USA gets out and never looks back we still have the Syrians, Turks, Arabians, Al Quadea, European Powers, Russians... All these people will have an agenda with it, now while none of them will go in directly like the Americans did, they will support their favoured group, send weapons and supplies, provide propoganda, provide shelter and training.
And the folks on the Northern border would be very interested in what happens with the Kurds. An independent Kurdish state would cause problems for Turkey, Iran and other countries that have Kurds living in their own country.
As you also mentioned - the ultimate outcome is very unpredictable regardless of what action is taken.