Starship tests: SN15 flight early May

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NASA Spaceflight has a longer article about future plans.

• SN11 could fly this week. Fourth flight to ~10 km, main goal is a safe landing. The flight will end this round of test flights. There are no SN12/13/14.
• BN1 (first booster, largely assembled) is not expected to fly, it will be used for ground tests after the SN11 flight. BN2 will fly later.
• SN15-17 come with major upgrades relative to 8-11. They are expected to fly to higher altitudes. SN18/19 might follow or get scrapped based on the progress with the test flights.
• SN20 on booster B3 is the expected combination for a first orbital flight. The internal target seems to be July 1, but that's an incredibly aggressive timeline and can only work if nothing goes wrong. Nevertheless, an orbital flight this year looks plausible.
• The first orbital launch pad makes progress and construction of the integration tower (stacking Starship on top of the booster) could start in about one week.

Not in this article: SpaceX purchased two old oil rigs and converts them to launch pads. Asked how rockets would get to the platforms: Musk: They will fly there.

 

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SN11 flew but exploded shortly after starting the landing burn - presumably a planned breakup from the flight termination system but that's not clear yet. Heavy fog lead to a lot of confusion what happened.

SpaceX video
Everyday Astronaut coverage

 

[hutchphd]

Apparently SpaceX was responding to Pete Conrad's famous call on Apollo 12 for "more all-weather testing". Why would you launch a test vehicle in the fog?

 

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new Tweet

Looks like engine 2 had issues on ascent & didn’t reach operating chamber pressure during landing burn, but, in theory, it wasn’t needed.

Something significant happened shortly after landing burn start. Should know what it was once we can examine the bits later today.

Nothing to do with the fog, just made watching the flight harder.

BN1 won't fly but it might be tested on the ground next.

SN15 should be ready soon. It comes with significant upgrades, it has been speculated that it will make higher altitude flights where heating gets relevant. It doesn't have a full heat shield, but that's not needed for now. Getting the landing right will still be the highest priority.

 

[hutchphd]

Nothing to do with the fog, just made watching the flight harder.

Its a test flight. The whole purpose is to watch it. Visible is valuable data. What sane person would launch into that fog?

 

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Nice pictures are not the purpose of the test. Almost all the test data comes from Starship sensors, the rest will come from inspecting debris. A camera on the ground won't contribute much anyway.

Another update:

SN15 rolls to launch pad in a few days. It has hundreds of design improvements across structures, avionics/software & engine.

Hopefully, one of those improvements covers this problem. If not, then retrofit will add a few more days.

 

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SN15 has conducted a static fire test (and a second one).
Musk: "preparing for flight later this week"

The flight is expected to mirror the previous four flights in scope, but SN15 is different in many aspects. Design issues found in the SN8-11 flights went into changes for SN15 and up, the second generation of full-scale prototypes.Personal speculation: If SN15 lands softly it will be inspected in detail. In that time I expect SN16 to be prepared for a higher altitude flight - as high as they can fly with three engines, potentially even with 6 engines (using 6 sea-level engines instead of 3 + 3 vacuum ones). SN17 could repeat that flight profile. SN18/19 won't be finished unless some serious design issue comes up. Meanwhile BN2 and the orbital launch pad will be finished and make a test hop or test flight. Add BN3 if needed. The landing mechanism will still evolve, whatever they use to land BN2 will be preliminary.
If the SN16/17 flights are successful and progress with the booster keeps up then SN20 can be put on a booster (BN3 or 4) for an orbital flight attempt. The largest risk will be a loss of all the raptor engines of the booster. They take time to produce.

 

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Soft landing. A bit of fire but that was extinguished.
They'll study this one in detail. Maybe we'll see it fly again in the future.Edit: Musk: Might try to refly SN15 soon