- #211
PeterDonis
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stevendaryl said:if on Monday you wake Sleeping Beauty with probability ##\alpha##, and on Tuesday you wake her with probability ##\beta##,
Well, another Bayesian approach would be to use this information to determine the priors for P(Monday|Awakened) and P(Tuesday|Awakened), instead of just using a maximum entropy prior. In other words, using information about the process that is going to generate the single trial to assign prior probabilities. E. T. Jaynes talks about this sort of thing in his book on probability theory. (For example, he discusses using information about the details of the process by which a coin is flipped, e.g., using a robotic coin flipper, to assign priors for heads and tails.) If this is done, then yes, your formula makes sense.