The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy

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In summary, the exit polling has been discredited in recent elections due to discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts.
  • #71
russ_watters said:
This should be obvious: Being able to "confirm" your vote means you have the ability to change your vote after it is cast (otherwise, there is no point in confirming it).
This is a misreading. By confirming the vote, I mean the voter has some way to tell that the choices made are what become the permanent record. Systems as they stand are not secure enough for sufficient confidence in that without a paper record. I have no idea where the idea of the voter changing something after the vote is cast came from.
Uh huh - remind me again what the precipitating event was that caused the shift to electronic voting...
In the most meaningful sense, it was the invention of electronic voting machines 30 years ago or whenever it was. Recent events have caused widespread adoption of still flawed systems which brings the problems to the fore. Computer security risks always increase with market penetration.

This is why what you're saying keeps sounding like conspiracy garbage. The problems were there before recent elections, and they were being solved. They became urgent problems when events caused an acceleration of adoption of these machines before satisfactory solutions were implemented.
There's a reason I picked that example - its because he uses it, but he gets it wrong.

He cites the reciept you get at an atm as being equivalent to what should be done with voting machines.
No, you misunderstand his point. The records kept by an ATM, the customer receipt and, more importantly, the internal audit record, are entirely different than for a voting machine because the transaction is not anonymous for an ATM. This is one source of the technical difficulty in producing a secure electronic voting system.

As Jones said, providing the equivalent of a receipt is just the simplest technical solution to the problem for the moment. No one has said it is ideal.

The standards that have been established for ATMs are also vastly more stringent and robust than the current FEC/NASED standards for voting machines (and most machines for this election were not even checked against the current 2002 standards but previous 1990 standards).
This sort of error is utterly unresolvable.
Not with sufficiently specified and enforced record keeping—which ATMs have, and cash registers, as a rule (always?), do not.
Its the point of this thread, the point of the study linked in the first post. Its the point of all the conspiracy theories about the election being fixed.
I've been talking about the security of voting systems, not the recent election. Whether or not anything fraudulent happened in the recent election (and I have never argued that it has), this problem still exists and is meaningful. Is this off topic for this thread? I suppose, but in the absence of any compelling evidence of non-negligible software problems or of fraud from the recent election, I do think it is the important issue. Did I become interested in this because I had heard of the possibility of fraud in the recent election? Of course. But the technical issues themselves are entirely separate from what problems they may or may not have caused in a specific circumstance. For purposes of this discussion, it is you who appears obsessed with the recent election. I would suggest reading my comments through a lens other than disdain for those who disagree with you.

You've introduced so many strange assumptions as to my motives, and made so many points based on insufficient knowledge of the actual state of voting technology and of the relevant computer security framework, that I really have no idea what you think I'm arguing. It has seemed pointless to try to construct a technical précis as I have not felt like sorting through these misconceptions thoroughly enough to figure out what exactly you're missing. I have pointed to the assessments of the people whose job it is to deal with these issues. While I have no particular belief that my view of the situation is a complete one, or is accurate in all details, I have no reason to believe my sources unreliable. You have provided no backup to your viewpoint, and the only argument you have made from my sources was based on a misinterpretation. I singled out the documents I did because I thought most people would prefer to read a summary rather than a transcript of FEC testimony or a conference paper, not because they were the best or most detailed.

A lot of the time your responses seem to be directed at arguments that the problems with electronic voting are directly analogous to those with paper voting. (And to the extent that problems arise from election administration, this is true of course, but this is not what you were saying.) The most serious problems with the current electronic systems arise from the nature of computers and software development and have no real analogy to previous problems—the worst being the possiblity of untraceable changes made to the tally database, occurring either in the process of data input or after the event, and being the result of either buggy code (the more probable cause) or malice.

The incident in Ohio where a precinct with ~600 voters recorded ~4000 votes for Bush is a good example. There was no obvious relationship between the votes cast and the recorded tally; there was no reason to believe it was fraud, (and if it was it was stupid anyway since it was so easily detectable). But without the paper record of individual votes, there would probably have been no way to assign results for the precinct. As Schneier points out, an invalid paper ballot effects one vote, and statistically the overall effect of these is generally self-cancelling, but a software malfunction can occur at any place along the chain of data collection, affecting a greater or lesser number of votes depending on the location, and affecting them in an arbitrary, non-statistically neutral fashion.

The most obvious things that comes out of reading about this stuff is that the overall issue of balancing the needs of ballot security and ballot anonymity are complex on all levels, technical and administrative, that people have put a lot of thought into achieving these ends, and that the problems are not always intuitive.
 
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  • #72
plover said:
This is a misreading. By confirming the vote, I mean the voter has some way to tell that the choices made are what become the permanent record.
So c'mon, finish the thought - what happens if what is on the screen is different from what is on the paper printout or either are different from the intent of the voter? No one has addressed it yet.

And maybe this is a nitpick, but a "confirmation" is something that happens after - if the vote has not been recorded yet, there is nothing to confirm. Was not the whole issue confirming what is recorded, not what is on the screen?
...the worst being the possiblity of untraceable changes made to the tally database, occurring either in the process of data input or after the event, and being the result of either buggy code (the more probable cause) or malice.
I still do not accept that such errors would be untraceable or uncorrectable. If the data is stored on the voting machine, you can always go back and recover it. So the maximum possible unrecoverable error would be in a single voting machine.
As Schneier points out, an invalid paper ballot effects one vote, and statistically the overall effect of these is generally self-cancelling, but a software malfunction can occur at any place along the chain of data collection, affecting a greater or lesser number of votes depending on the location, and affecting them in an arbitrary, non-statistically neutral fashion.
And yet, the 2000 electoral crisis was based primarily on thousands of flawed single votes. I would agree that they are (generally) self-cancelling, but that doesn't stop the challenges or the conspiracy theories. People still claim Bush stole the 2000 election based on that. Caveat: there were also some issues with machines that caused large numbers of flawed votes and that does provide an analogy to a failed electronic machine. A lot of the conspiracy theory was based on that, but the cause of the biggest electoral crisis in history was the "chads" and they needed to be eliminated immediately.

edit: I missed something obvious: both 1000 unreadable single votes and 1000 votes lost to a malfunctioning machine should be self-cancelling with the caveat that the rate would reflect the percentages of the votes for each candidate (if candidate A got 60% of the votes in the precinct, of 1000 lost votes, 600 by him - that was part of the issue in election 2000).
The incident in Ohio where a precinct with ~600 voters recorded ~4000 votes for Bush is a good example. There was no obvious relationship between the votes cast and the recorded tally; there was no reason to believe it was fraud, (and if it was it was stupid anyway since it was so easily detectable). But without the paper record of individual votes, there would probably have been no way to assign results for the precinct.
This is different from the above - above we were talking about voter verification - this is an actual backup copy of the votes, to be kept by the electoral comission. I would maybe support a backup paper copy only to be used in case of machine failure or proven fraud. The implications of having two vote tallies that both appear valid, but say two different things is too gruesome to consider - it would be Florida x 10.
The most obvious things that comes out of reading about this stuff is that the overall issue of balancing the needs of ballot security and ballot anonymity are complex on all levels, technical and administrative, that people have put a lot of thought into achieving these ends, and that the problems are not always intuitive.
Fair enough.

And one more thing:
You have provided no backup to your viewpoint...
My viewpoint is based on history, logic, your link, my knowledge of computers, and the lack of evidence provided by others. I'm afraid my knowledge of computers is unverifiable - I am entirely self-taught. My logic, if unsound, should be easy to argue against, but thus far, no one has addressed the big point at the top of this post after several tries by me to get people to explain it. I am operating on the assumption that you know what happened in 2000, but if not, I'll gladly look up and link the problems that were had.

I am in the difficult position of trying to prove a negative - which means it is mostly up to you to prove that there are big flaws, not me to prove that there aren't. All I have to go on is last month's election: which went quite well.
 
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  • #73
Gedankan:

Suppose you are a savvy poltical operative and you have been given the special task of making sure your candidate wins an election at any cost as long as the candidate is not implicated in any wrong doings. How would you go about it? Suppose you have plenty of funds and resources at your disposal and anything goes as long as you do not get caught. Of course if you are caught any allegations will be denied and you would probably not have many days to live!
 
  • #74
I'd probably financially support the family of some crazed suicide-killer willing to blow himself up while shaking hands with my employer's opponent.
 
  • #75
polyb said:
Gedankan:

Suppose you are a savvy poltical operative and you have been given the special task of making sure your candidate wins an election at any cost as long as the candidate is not implicated in any wrong doings. How would you go about it? Suppose you have plenty of funds and resources at your disposal and anything goes as long as you do not get caught. Of course if you are caught any allegations will be denied and you would probably not have many days to live!

I would place more voting machines in precincts likely to support my candidate than I placed in precincts likely to support my opponent.

For example, if there's about 160 voters per machine in my friendly precinct, they won't have to wait in line very long. If long lines aren't the first thing a potential voter sees when they pull into the parking lot, they're more likely to vote.

I'd fix it so there were about 800 or so voters per machine in unfriendly precincts. The lines would extend clear out the door. Many in line might realize they have to be somewhere and decide not to vote. Some might see the line and decide not to vote before they've even gotten out of their car.

If I were a Democrat, I'd make enforcement on provisional ballots as lenient as possible. Renters are most likely to have problems with voter rolls and renters, generally being lower income, are more likley to support Democrats.

If I were a Republican, I'd enforce rules on provisional ballots as strictly as possible. In fact, if possible, I'd put two or three unfriendly precincts in the same building. That way, at least a few votes would get tossed just because, even though the voter went to the right building, he got in the wrong line and therefore voted in the wrong precinct.

What's to get caught. It's all legal and no one has to deny anything.
 
  • #76
Whacky, violent, and crazy! I like it! If I ever run for office in south america, you're hired!

The only problem though is that the damage control would be hell and you would probably lose your reward as well as your life.
 
  • #77
polyb said:
Whacky, violent, and crazy! I like it! If I ever run for office in south america, you're hired!
you don't run for president in South America, you wait for a government to emerge that's unfriendly towards American Big Business and then get appointed by the CIA when they organize a coup... but you'll probably like that better anyway :biggrin:
 
  • #78
Why South America? Why not the US?

Byron (Low Tax) Looper ran for Georgia's State House as a Democrat and lost.

He moved to Tennessee, legally changed his middle name to "Low Tax", became a Republican, and lost in his 1996 bid for the Tennessee State House of Representatives.

In 1998, he went one better. His opponent for State Senate, Tommy Burks, was murdered two weeks before the election. With no living opponent, Looper was able to win 5% of the vote - a write-in candidate used a hastily organized campaign to get 95% of the vote. The fact that he was under indictment for theft, and that his ex-girlfriend accused him of rape, and that key Republicans campaigned against him probably left him a little bitter.

Despondent, Looper gave up a political career and is now a prison inmate, serving a life sentence for murdering his opponent, Tommy Burks.

Okay, not very successful, I admit.

But how about winning a campaign by dying. That always gets the voters' sympathy. It worked for Mel Carnahan. He was running for Missouri governor in 2000 against incumbent John Ashcroft, died during the election, and rode the wave of sympathy to a narrow victory. (Which is why Ashcroft was available to become US Attorney General).
 
  • #79
Talk about a ghost candidate, boy you could really pull off some interesting tricks with a dead guy in office. So the startegy of staging your death, winning the seat and still operating behind the scenes does sound great. You could embezzle all sorts of funds a not have to worry about consequences! :smile:

Unfortunately it didnt work that way for Paul Wellstone!

Now seriously, the point of the thought experiment is to establish:
a) can the e-vote machines be used for fraud.
b) given the already inherent problems, how e-vote machines puts one more monkey wrench into the system.
c) to bring to light methods that would give the appearence of no vote fraud, ie spreading the vote discrepencies far enough that it looks valid to any casual observer, etc.
 
  • #80
polyb said:
Now seriously, the point of the thought experiment is to establish:
a) can the e-vote machines be used for fraud.
b) given the already inherent problems, how e-vote machines puts one more monkey wrench into the system.
c) to bring to light methods that would give the appearence of no vote fraud, ie spreading the vote discrepencies far enough that it looks valid to any casual observer, etc.
Well, the nice thing about thought experiments is they don't need to reflect reality: in physics you ignore friction and efficiency losses and with this one you can assume a 100% success rate with no possibility of getting caught! For example:
BobG said:
I would place more voting machines in precincts likely to support my candidate than I placed in precincts likely to support my opponent.
Sure you could - as long as no one asks what you are doing!
 
  • #81
Did it happen? Sure people complained afterwards, but people always complain after their candidate loses. Being the party in control of a state's elections is always an advantage. And Ohio did have at least 400 provisional ballots tossed in two precincts that shared the same building. The person should have gotten in line 1. Instead they got in line 2 and were given a provisional ballot just in case they really did live in line 2's precinct. Since they didn't live in line 2's precinct, their vote was tossed.
 
  • #82
Hey I found something relevant while the murmur of this topic is rumbling. The news has dropped it and our politicians are complaining that the Ukranian exit polls don't match the vote tallies. Funny, isn't it. Wait and see I guess.


20 Amazing Facts About Voting in the USA

Did you know...

1. 80% of all votes in America are counted by only two companies: Diebold and ES&S.
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diebold

2. There is no federal agency with regulatory authority or oversight of the U.S. voting machine industry.
http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0916-04.htm
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html

3. The vice-president of Diebold and the president of ES&S are brothers.
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/private_company.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html

4. The chairman and CEO of Diebold is a major Bush campaign organizer and donor who wrote in 2003 that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml
http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1647886

5. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel used to be chairman of ES&S. He became Senator based on votes counted by ES&S machines.
http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/columns/2004/03/03_200.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/031004Fitrakis/031004fitrakis.html

6. Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, long-connected with the Bush family, was recently caught lying about his ownership of ES&S by the Senate Ethics Committee.
http://www.blackboxvoting.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=26
http://www.hillnews.com/news/012903/hagel.aspx
http://www.onlisareinsradar.com/archives/000896.php

7. Senator Chuck Hagel was on a short list of George W. Bush's vice-presidential candidates.
http://www.businessweek.com/2000/00_28/b3689130.htm
http://theindependent.com/stories/052700/new_hagel27.html

8. ES&S is the largest voting machine manufacturer in the U.S. and counts almost 60% of all U.S. votes.
http://www.essvote.com/HTML/about/about.html
http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/042804Landes/042804landes.html

9. Diebold's new touch screen voting machines have no paper trail of any votes. In other words, there is no way to verify that the data coming out of the machine is the same as what was legitimately put in by voters.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm
http://www.itworld.com/Tech/2987/041020evotestates/pfindex.html

10. Diebold also makes ATMs, checkout scanners, and ticket machines, all of which log each transaction and can generate a paper trail.
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0225-05.htm
http://www.diebold.com/solutions/default.htm

11. Diebold is based in Ohio.
http://www.diebold.com/aboutus/ataglance/default.htm

12. Diebold employed 5 convicted felons as senior managers and developers to help write the central compiler computer code that counted 50% of the votes in 30 states.
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,61640,00.html
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2004/10/301469.shtml

13. Jeff Dean, Diebold's Senior Vice-President and senior programmer on Diebold's central compiler code, was convicted of 23 counts of felony theft in the first degree.
http://www.chuckherrin.com/HackthevoteFAQ.htm#how
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/bbv_chapter-8.pdf

14. Diebold Senior Vice-President Jeff Dean was convicted of planting back doors in his software and using a "high degree of sophistication" to evade detection over a period of 2 years.
http://www.chuckherrin.com/HackthevoteFAQ.htm#how
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/bbv_chapter-8.pdf

15. None of the international election observers were allowed in the polls in Ohio.
http://www.globalexchange.org/update/press/2638.html
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/10/26/loc_elexoh.html

16. California banned the use of Diebold machines because the security was so bad. Despite Diebold's claims that the audit logs could not be hacked, a chimpanzee was able to do it. (See the movie here.)
http://wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,63298,00.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4874190

17. 30% of all U.S. votes are carried out on unverifiable touch screen voting machines with no paper trail.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/28/sunday/main632436.shtml

18. All - not some - but all the voting machine errors detected and reported in Florida went in favor of Bush or Republican candidates.
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,65757,00.html
http://www.yuricareport.com/ElectionAftermath04/ThreeResearchStudiesBushIsOut.htm
http://www.rise4news.net/extravotes.html
http://www.ilcaonline.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=950
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

19. The governor of the state of Florida, Jeb Bush, is the President's brother.
http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/news/local/7628725.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10544-2004Oct29.html

20. Serious voting anomalies in Florida - again always favoring Bush - have been mathematically demonstrated and experts are recommending further investigation.
http://www.yuricareport.com/ElectionAftermath04/ThreeResearchStudiesBushIsOut.htm
http://www.computerworld.com/governmenttopics/government/policy/story/0,10801,97614,00.html
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/tens_of_thousands.html
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2004/110904.html

http://uscountvotes.org/


This was found @

http://www.truthout.org/cblog.shtml
 
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