MHB What is the expected value of attempting a field goal?

AI Thread Summary
The discussion centers on calculating the expected value of attempting a field goal in football. The probability of scoring a field goal is 90%, while the chance of missing is 10%. The expected value is determined by multiplying the points awarded for a successful field goal (3 points) by the probability of success, resulting in an expected value of 2.7 points. The probability of scoring a touchdown is considered irrelevant to this specific calculation. Understanding these probabilities is crucial for evaluating the decision-making process in football strategy.
Coder74
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Hello everyone!
I'm confused because 90% and 35% obviously do not add up to 100%
and as a result I'm really flustered! :C I appreciate the help and efforts of everyone on this website! :D
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Coder74 said:
Hello everyone!
I'm confused because 90% and 35% obviously do not add up to 100%
and as a result I'm really flustered! :C I appreciate the help and efforts of everyone on this website! :D

Hi Coder74!

Indeed, those do not add up to 100%.
I can only assume we have 90% chance to score a field goal and 10% chance to score nothing at all.
... unless we set our objective to a touchdown...
 
The question is "find the expected value of a field goal" (I would have said "the expected value of attempting a field goal") which means the probability of a touch down is irrelevant. A field goal has value 3 points and the probability of success is 0.9 so the "expected value" of attempting a field goal is (3)(0.9)= 2.7 points.
 

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