What will happen in the 2006 mid-term elections?

[Astronuc]

Well, Kerry apologized, and some Republicans are satsified.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061102/ap_on_el_ge/election_rdp_33

WASHINGTON - Fearful of damaging his own party in next week's elections, Sen. John Kerry apologized Wednesday to "any service member, family member or American" offended by remarks deemed by Republicans and Democrats to be insulting to U.S. forces in Iraq.

Six days before the election, the Democrats' 2004 presidential nominee said he wanted to avoid becoming a distraction in the final days of the battle for control of Congress. He added he sincerely regretted that his words were "misinterpreted to imply anything negative about those in uniform."

In a brief statement, Kerry attacked President Bush for a "failed security policy." Yet his apology, issued after prominent Democrats had urged him to cancel public appearances, was designed to quell a controversy that party leaders feared would stall their drive for big gains on Nov. 7.

With polls showing the public opposed to the war in Iraq, Democrats have expressed increasing optimism in recent days that they will gain the 15 seats they need to win control of the House. Democrats must pick up six seats to win the Senate, a taller challenge, and both parties made last-minute efforts to increase the number of competitive races.

For the Democratic senatorial committee, that meant pumping about $1 million into an Arizona race long thought out of reach. For the counterpart Republican committee, it meant a foray into Maryland, also viewed as an unlikely state to pick up a seat.

Meanwhile -

Tracking Elections
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6416611

Fresh Air from WHYY, November 1, 2006 · Election reform expert Dan Seligson is the editor of Electionline.org, a nonpartisan and non-advocacy organization that tracks and analyzes election reform issues. The site is a venture of the Election Reform Information Project.

http://electionline.org/

 

[BobG]

Well, Kerry apologized, and some Republicans are satsified.

Well, after House Majority Leader John Boehner's comments, some Republicans are cringing too much to stay on the attack against Kerry.

In an interview Wednesday on CNN, Boehner said, "Let's not blame what's happening in Iraq on Rumsfeld."

CNN's Wolf Blitzer replied, "But he's in charge of the military."

"The fact is, the generals on the ground are in charge, and he works closely with them and the president," Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said.

Rumsfeld is so popular with the military's generals.

Said in the context of shifting blame to someone else, this is a little harsher comment than a blown line in a lame joke.

 

[Astronuc]

"The fact is, the generals on the ground are in charge, and he works closely with them and the president," Boehner,

Boehner needs to check his facts. I keeping hearing generals asking for troops and support and Rumsfeld ignores them. But sometimes what is said to Rumsfeld seems different than what is said elsewhere.

If Woodward's book is correct, and I have not heard much in the way of dispute, except perhaps some comments by Card concerning himself and Laura Bush, Rumsfeld has worked against the military. Casey and Abizaid seem to be disputing the positive comments by Rumsfeld and the President, and Rumsfeld seems to have withheld concerns from the President. In all fairness, Jay Garner and Colin Powell didn't inform the president of their concerns when they had the opportunity. On the other hand, it seems that Bush is so incurious that he really doesn't want to know how bad Iraq really is, otherwise he should have changed policy long ago.

After reading Woodward's "State of Denial", it seems that Rumsfeld and Cheney have been acting as co-presidents, with or without the consent of Bush, which is totally absurd, and which is among the reasons that the policy on Iraq has failed miserably.

 

[Astronuc]

In upstate New York, Representative John E. Sweeney, a Republican who had seemed to be weathering a tough challenge, was described by party strategists as in new danger after his local newspaper, the Glens Falls Post Star, withdrew its endorsement of him, citing reports of a domestic violence episode involving Mr. Sweeney and his wife.

NY Times, Nov. 4http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/05/us/politics/05elect.html

CLIFTON PARK -- U.S. Rep. John Sweeney and his wife on Wednesday acknowledged that State Police came to their home on Dec. 2, but they refuted a newspaper's reports that described the incident as domestic violence involving the couple.

"I do not need to be protected from John. At no time has John hurt me or done anything other than try to protect me," Gayle Sweeney, the congressman's wife, said in a conference call with reporters gathered at the Republican congressman's campaign office in Clifton Park.

Mrs. Sweeney said a published report stating she called 911 to report an incident of domestic violence was a "completely false allegation against my husband."

Congressman Sweeney, speaking directly to reporters about a half-hour later, also said he did not hit his wife.

. . . . The Times-Union of Albany reported Wednesday that State Police went to the Sweeneys' home in Clifton Park in December after his wife apparently called 911 to report an incident of domestic violence,

The Times-Union, citing a police report given to the newspaper, said the congressman's 36-year-old wife, Gaia, who goes by Gayle, had called police on Dec. 2 to report that her husband was "knocking her around," and told police that he had grabbed her by the throat and was pushing her around the house.

http://www.poststar.com/articles/2006/11/03/news/doc454907759f6d3217358203.txt

But in the Troy Record - http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17421392&BRD=1170&PAG=461&dept_id=7021&rfi=6

TROY - Three days after Rep. John Sweeney called on State Police to release the correct version of a domestic violence incident report, it remains more of an urban legend than a real document and it appears it will stay that way.

While not denying police were called to his Clifton Park home, Sweeney and his wife immediately said the report was falsified and called on State Police to release the original document to prove it. He also placed the blame on his opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, for hiring someone to both leak the report and then for adding salacious details to make the incident seem more scandalous.

The Gillibrand hire who is suspect is Democratic Party adviser Howard Wolfson, the man Jones said he is investigating to see if he is the one who leaked the document. . . .

I would like to see both parties stop this kind of nonsense. Stick to the issues and let voters decide on the basis of merit of one's position on the issues.

And the media need to be more fair in their reporting and analysis. Too much is presented as fact when it is not. Uncertainties need to be reported, and allegations should be stated as such.

 

[wasteofo2]

Looks like I've been way too pessimistic all along.

Never would've guessed a completely democratic 110th Congress

 

[Gokul43201]

Hmmm...no one had the correct answer on the swing in the House! Tut, tut!

 

[Astronuc]

I was being conservative in my estimate.

 

[turbo]

I was being conservative in my estimate.

I got the Senate right, but was conservative about the House because House districts have been gerrymandered in many states, making them safer for incumbents. Of course, when I voted on the poll, Foleygate hadn't occurred - the Republican leadership's head-in-the sand approach when confronted with that slimeball's activities probably played a role in the solid Dem gains in the House.

 

[Astronuc]

Housewise, I might have gone with 10-20, and for the Senate 2-5.

Certainly Foley had an effect, but I really think Iraq is frustrating people, and rightly so. The administration has painted a rosy picture of success and everyone can see that it is not. I wonder of Woodward's book had an influence.

Another interesting race is in Connecticut District 02. Simmons (R) is the incumbent seems to have lost to Courtney (D) by 170 votes - Simmons (121,151) vs Courtney (121,321). I've heard Simmons and he seems pretty moderate.