When Will Society Collapse Due to Pollution?

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In summary: X would happen, and it didn't. Boom. Over.". This is a silly argument, because it's not like they had any good information to work with. They just made a prediction about the future, and it didn't come true.Second, the article does not provide any data or explanation, except for the three graphs. The graphs are very general, with no values on the vertical axis – so it is hard to tell how closely they track current empirical data. Clearly the origin is not zero, which always makes me think the presentation is being manipulated to emphasize a point that the data does not support.Third, the article does not explain what is driving any of the variables.Fourth, I don
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aheight said:
Section 2.4 of the paper describes resource data such as coal, natural gas and oil.
I haven't done a deep dive, but I will at least give the author some credit for this:
Around 1990, it became clear that non-renewable
resources, particularly fossil fuels, had turned out to be more plentiful than assumed in the 1972 BAU scenario.
1990 is pretty far back. If they realized their projection was way wrong before the fracking boom, by about 2010 with the death of Peak Oil they must have realized it was way, way, way wrong. So it doesn't look like a non-renewable resource-based collapse is anywhere on any projectable time horizon.

They go on:
Randers therefore postulated that
not resource scarcity, but pollution, especially from greenhouse gases, would cause the halt in growth.
Wow, fortunately there is a back-up thesis that still works (that wasn't even known/available when the book was written)! Frankly, when the main thesis turns out to be really, really wrong it does not invoke confidence in the back-up thesis/projection being better. Especially when the thesis is postulated -- assumed. They are assuming that collapse is inevitable, not predicting it. The question they are asking is: Assuming collapse due to "pollution" is inevitable under these conditions when would it happen?

To me that's too hand-wavey. I reject the postulate that "pollution" based collapse is any more inevitable than an oil-based collapse. My beer is not hand-wavey. I know when I brew it, to a high degree of certainty, what the Malthusian end of that universe will look like (after some practice). I know when, why and what the end state will be.

Theirs is math without a direct connection to reality. I'm not even concerned about the lack of units/scaling and choices of proxies - there is a lot of data there, but it's not what is driving the model. It's the cause-effect hand-waving that's the main problem: How will it happen? We don't even have a high degree of certainty what the planet will look like in 2100, much less a solid idea of how that could impact human civilization. Note: unlike the "pollution" based collapse, the resource-based collapse model did include a mechanism. It's not one I agree with, but for now it is moot anyway since the input value was so wrong.
aheight said:
I think we can agree the proxies used for the "pollution" variable, atmospheric carbon dioxide and plastic pollution will continue to be significant environmental issues: carbon dioxide is the highest it's been in several hundred-thousand years and it's not easily (significiantly) sequestered, and plastic is slow to degrade.
Sure. But "significant environmental issues" ≠ "collapse is inevitable". I'm not willing to accept the assumed starting premise that collapse is inevitable. That's something that should be argued/modeled/predicted, not assumed.
 
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<h2> What is pollution and how does it affect society?</h2><p>Pollution refers to the presence of harmful substances in the environment, such as air, water, and soil. These substances can come from various sources, including human activities, natural disasters, and industrial processes. Pollution can have detrimental effects on human health, ecosystems, and the economy, leading to a decline in overall societal well-being.</p><h2> What are the major causes of pollution?</h2><p>The main causes of pollution are human activities, including industrial processes, transportation, and energy production. These activities release pollutants such as carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases, as well as toxic chemicals and waste products. Natural causes, such as volcanic eruptions and wildfires, can also contribute to pollution.</p><h2> How is pollution currently impacting society?</h2><p>Pollution has already had significant impacts on society, including negative effects on human health, damage to ecosystems, and economic losses. Air pollution, for example, is linked to respiratory diseases and premature deaths, while water pollution can lead to contaminated drinking water and harm aquatic life. The economic costs of pollution include healthcare expenses, lost productivity, and damage to infrastructure.</p><h2> When will society collapse due to pollution?</h2><p>It is difficult to predict an exact timeline for when society will collapse due to pollution. However, if current pollution levels continue to increase, it is likely that we will see more severe and widespread impacts in the near future. It is crucial for society to take action to reduce pollution and mitigate its effects in order to prevent a collapse.</p><h2> What can be done to prevent a collapse due to pollution?</h2><p>To prevent a collapse due to pollution, it is essential to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and transition to cleaner, renewable energy sources. We also need to implement stricter regulations and policies to limit pollution from industries and transportation. Additionally, individuals can make a difference by making small changes in their daily lives, such as reducing energy consumption and properly disposing of waste. Collaboration between governments, businesses, and individuals is crucial in addressing pollution and preventing a collapse of society.</p>

FAQ: When Will Society Collapse Due to Pollution?

What is pollution and how does it affect society?

Pollution refers to the presence of harmful substances in the environment, such as air, water, and soil. These substances can come from various sources, including human activities, natural disasters, and industrial processes. Pollution can have detrimental effects on human health, ecosystems, and the economy, leading to a decline in overall societal well-being.

What are the major causes of pollution?

The main causes of pollution are human activities, including industrial processes, transportation, and energy production. These activities release pollutants such as carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases, as well as toxic chemicals and waste products. Natural causes, such as volcanic eruptions and wildfires, can also contribute to pollution.

How is pollution currently impacting society?

Pollution has already had significant impacts on society, including negative effects on human health, damage to ecosystems, and economic losses. Air pollution, for example, is linked to respiratory diseases and premature deaths, while water pollution can lead to contaminated drinking water and harm aquatic life. The economic costs of pollution include healthcare expenses, lost productivity, and damage to infrastructure.

When will society collapse due to pollution?

It is difficult to predict an exact timeline for when society will collapse due to pollution. However, if current pollution levels continue to increase, it is likely that we will see more severe and widespread impacts in the near future. It is crucial for society to take action to reduce pollution and mitigate its effects in order to prevent a collapse.

What can be done to prevent a collapse due to pollution?

To prevent a collapse due to pollution, it is essential to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and transition to cleaner, renewable energy sources. We also need to implement stricter regulations and policies to limit pollution from industries and transportation. Additionally, individuals can make a difference by making small changes in their daily lives, such as reducing energy consumption and properly disposing of waste. Collaboration between governments, businesses, and individuals is crucial in addressing pollution and preventing a collapse of society.

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