Will the US use Nukes against Iran?

[alexandra]

Source of information about Iranian military capability/resources

I've noticed that there has been quite a bit of discussion about whether or not, and how effectively, Iran would be able to defend itself against an attack, or retaliate if attacked. I found a website that has information about things like this, though I couldn't judge how accurate this information might be. Also, not knowing much about weapons and stuff like that, I don't really know what a lot of this information means so can't summarise the implications - I thought I'd just refer those interested to the website so they could see if they can make any sense of it: the homepage is http://www.globalsecurity.org/index.html, and the URL providing information about Iran's military capabilities is http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/index.html

 

[jhe1984]

Globalsecurity.org is a great source of generally very accurate info. The guy who runs it, John Pike I think his name is, is something of a security expert/specialist. Generally good objective data.

 

[alexandra]

An update on Iran

I just read this:

US backs first-strike attack plan

The US will not shy away from attacking regimes it considers hostile, or groups it believes have nuclear or chemical weapons, the White House has confirmed.

In the first restatement of national security strategy since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US singles out Iran as the greatest single current danger.

The new policy backs the policy of pre-emptive war first issued in 2002, and criticised since the Iraq war.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4812562.stm

So, what do you think? I think the Bush administration is laying the groundwork. Oh dear, here we go again...

alex

 

[Anttech]

WW3 here we come..

 

[vanesch]

Naah. Big talk, that's all...

 

[selfAdjoint]

Naah. Big talk, that's all...

I agree. The current effort is Iraq is about all we're up to.

 

[BobG]

I agree. The current effort is Iraq is about all we're up to.

You certainly have an optimistic view of the sanity level within the US government today. I'm not sure that's warranted.

The new winning political strategy is to be the first to embrace insanity (House Panel Seeks Sanctions. Buried towards the end of the story is the 37-3 bi-partisan vote by House International Relations Committee to impose sanctions that go too far, even for the White House.

With the current tone, it seems as if one party proposes sanctions, the other will have to propose air strikes; if one party proposes air strikes, the other will have to propose a limited invasion (to control the Strait of Hormuz, of course); if one party proposes a limited invasion ... and on and on.

We're still waiting for someone to come up with a sane and confident approach to the "new world" of post 9/11.

 

[G01]

Man I hate talks about stuff like this it gets me all depressed. Nuclear war and then all the draft threads...so depressing. IMO, I'm not as worried as many people here. We've been through worse.

 

[dsky]

Will Iran and other counties use the Nukes on this USA?
They should if this country continues to interfere with soverein nations,
But some should shake off the high from their own fat

 

[Art]

Iran is raising the stakes ahead of the security council meeting

Associated Press
Update 6: Iran: Just-Tested Missile Can Avoid Radar
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI , 03.31.2006, 12:26 PM

Iran successfully test-fired a missile that can avoid radar and hit several targets simultaneously using multiple warheads, the military said Friday.

Gen. Hossein Salami, the air force chief of the elite Revolutionary Guards, did not specify the missile's range, saying it depends on the weight of its warheads.

But state-run television described the weapon as "ballistic" - suggesting it's of comparable range to Iran's existing ballistic rocket, which can travel 1,250 miles and reach arch-foe Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East.

"Today, a remarkable goal of the Islamic Republic of Iran's defense forces was realized with the successful test-firing of a new missile with greater technical and tactical capabilities than those previously produced," Salami said on state-run television.

It showed a clip of the launch of what it called the Fajr-3, with "fajr" meaning "victory" in Farsi.

"It can avoid anti-missile missiles and strike the target," Salami said.

He said the missile would carry a multiple warhead, and each warhead would be capable of hitting its target precisely.

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/03/31/ap2637624.html

Unless one side or the other begins to compromise this will all end in tears I fear.

 

[ron damon]

All options regarding this issue are terrible. Will the civilized world tolerate a fanatical culture with a penchant for martyrdom and led by a neo-Nazi nut to posses nuclear weapons? How will the subsequent and very high risk of a nuclear attack on Israel be balanced out?

But then, what options are available? With American military power already stretched thin, and Europe consumed with ideology, what policy options are available?

One fancies the new century will feature a very different landscape than the one that preceded it. History is not over, after all; far from it.

The sooner the US realizes its interests and values coincide with the nations of east rather than Socialist Europe, the greater the chances of successfully facing the challenge of Islam and ensuring the continued march of progress.

 

[alexandra]

Update on Pentagon's plans re-Iran?

As per subject line:

Pentagon plans record-breaking explosion in Nevada desert

Julian Borger in Washington
Saturday April 1, 2006
The Guardian


The Pentagon is preparing to set off a record-breaking bang, detonating 635 tonnes of high explosives and sending a mushroom cloud into the sky over the Nevada desert. The blast, on June 2, codenamed Divine Strake, is likely to be the biggest controlled conventional explosion in military history, experts said, and is designed to test the impact of bunker-busting bombs aimed at underground targets.

The blast comes at a time of rising tension with Iran over its nuclear programme. The US has refused to rule out military action and is considering the feasibility of destroying underground warhead development sites Iran is alleged to have built.


More: http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,1744506,00.html

I guess it's too optimistic to hope that this was an April Fool's joke report?

 

[russ_watters]

What's the big deal? It sounds like it is just a test of their computer modeling techniques, since the actual explosives used can't be used in a real weapon anyway.

The military tests weapons all the time, alexandra.

 

[BobG]

Iran is raising the stakes ahead of the security council meeting


http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/03/31/ap2637624.html

Unless one side or the other begins to compromise this will all end in tears I fear.

It would be hard to assess the reliability of Iran's reports about its missile test. In the past, their accounts have always reported success regardless of the outcome. If the account of the latest test were accurate, then it would be an incredible leap for Iran's missile technology. I'm not sure it's completely beyond the realm of possibility, but it's certainly unlikely.

Iranian missiles

 

[SOS2008]

Iran has wanted to normalize relations with the U.S. But we have a president (Bush) who is a hard-liner who has planned to preemptively change the Middle East. Our president is famous for spin and rhetoric (oh yes, and lies). So now Iran has a president (Ahmadinejad) who has been concerned about a preemptive attack, and on occasion uses rhetoric to gain support from his base.

Israel is very capable of defending itself, and it's high time the U.S. stops taking the Zionist's side. Also, those who promote eradication of all Infidels are no larger in number than those who promote a crusade.

Obviously nuclear proliferation is not preferable, but I am less worried about Iran joining the likes of N.Korea and a slew of countries that have nukes than I worry about:

• Starting another war of attrition that will be far more costly than Iraq, both in blood and treasure (a draft would be likely, and will China/Japan continue to absorb our debt?)
• Starting a war that would cause oil prices to go even higher
• Iran starting a trend of wanting payment in other currencies, most notably Euro and Yen
• Further alienation from the rest of the world

The U.S. has practiced plenty of aggressive behavior and rhetoric. Maybe it's time to try diplomacy and sincerity toward peace.

 

[Art]

It would be hard to assess the reliability of Iran's reports about its missile test. In the past, their accounts have always reported success regardless of the outcome. If the account of the latest test were accurate, then it would be an incredible leap for Iran's missile technology. I'm not sure it's completely beyond the realm of possibility, but it's certainly unlikely.

Iranian missiles

A valid point however they seem to be getting serious assistance in missile technology. They are now claiming to have also successfully tested the world's fastest underwater missile capable of taking out submarines and large warships.

Iran test fires 'world's fastest' underwater missile
233mph 'Whale'

Iran last Friday test fired what it claims is the world's fastest underwater missile - reported to have a top speed of 360km/h (233mph), according to the BBC.

Special Republican guard troops fired the weapon - dubbed "Hoot" or Whale - and successfully destroyed a derelict ship in the Gulf as part of Iran's "Holy Prophet" war games. Iranian TV interrupted normal broadcasts to show footage of the test.

As SOS said let's hope diplomacy prevails this time.

 

[Cyrus]

I have serious reserves that Iran managed to make a torpedo that is faster than anything the United States has. If anyone, I would expect that from the Russians ten+ years ago, not the Iranians. Sounds like BS propoganda to me.

 

[newp175]

It looks like Iran is being deliberatly provocative. And there is no way they develloped the iranian Shkval equivalent without a lot of help from the russians.

 

[russ_watters]

I have serious reserves that Iran managed to make a torpedo that is faster than anything the United States has. If anyone, I would expect that from the Russians ten+ years ago, not the Iranians. Sounds like BS propoganda to me.

It appears to me to be a copy of a Russian idea of a rocket-propelled torpedo. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were able to launch it and achieve 200+mph speeds, but I doubt highly that the'll be able to make a deployable torpedo/undersea missile with it.

I haven't heard that the US is researching the idea, but frankly, our submarines are so far ahead of anyone else's that our torpedo technology is practically irrelevant.

 

[russ_watters]

Iran has wanted to normalize relations with the U.S. But we have a president (Bush) who is a hard-liner who has planned to preemptively change the Middle East. Our president is famous for spin and rhetoric (oh yes, and lies). So now Iran has a president (Ahmadinejad) who has been concerned about a preemptive attack, and on occasion uses rhetoric to gain support from his base.

Israel is very capable of defending itself, and it's high time the U.S. stops taking the Zionist's side. Also, those who promote eradication of all Infidels are no larger in number than those who promote a crusade...

The U.S. has practiced plenty of aggressive behavior and rhetoric. Maybe it's time to try diplomacy and sincerity toward peace.

There are two sides to that story, of course:

The US has its favorites (as if no one else does? ), but the US has also done more than the rest of the world combined to work for peace in the Israel/Palestine area. When was the last time the French, for example, hosted a summit or came up with a peace plan for the region? Both Clinton and Bush have had real and viable peace plans and both achieved some progress. Though Clinton's was less successful, he also had no starting point to work from, making his progress more notable. The famous Rabin/Arafat handshake and signing of a declaration of principles may not seem like much in the practical sense, but just getting those two to sit in the same room and talk - much less sign the same document - was a major achievement.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/13/newsid_3053000/3053733.stm

Regarding our support for Israel - it is not as unequivocable as people like to believe. Bush in particular has been critical of Israel for actions he considers to be unproductive to the peace process:

Israel must remove unauthorized outposts and stop settlement expansion. The barrier being erected by Israel as a part of its security effort must be a security, rather than political, barrier. And its route should take into account, consistent with security needs, its impact on Palestinians not engaged in terrorist activities. As we make progress toward security, and in accordance with the road map, Israeli forces should withdraw to their positions on September the 28th, 2000.

http://www.bnainoach.com/tiki-index.php?page=PRESIDENT BUSH BETRAYS ISRAEL SPEECH

So I think it is unreasonable to say that the US hasn't put a serious effort into a diplomatic solution - in fact, the US is the only 3rd party to have done just that.

 

[Art]

They showed the footage of the test firing of the Iranian underwater missile on Sky TV and it worked just fine. They deployed it from a torpedo launching tube from where it dropped into the water and headed off to it's target. It's key advantage is it is so fast it can be fired unguided as the target doesn't have time to intercept or out manouvre it. This means that forcing evasive action or even destroying the launch vehicle will not prevent the missile hitting it's target.


As with most things, what Bush says and what Bush does have little in common. Israel has continued to build new settlements and the wall is still there despite being declared illegal by the world court.

What sanctions has the US imposed on Israel for flouting it's and the rest of the world's will?
What sanctions has the US imposed for Israel's continuing program of assassination? It's hard to have meaningful negotiations when one side has assassinated all the negotiators on the other side.

Action speaks volumes louder than words!

 

[Cyrus]

It's key advantage is it is so fast it can be fired unguided as the target doesn't have time to intercept or out manouvre it.

You don't use unguided weapons systems that move that fast. That statement makes me think its more of a hoax. A system that revolutionary would certainly have some guidance and control to it. Again, it seems too good to be true Art. You saw *a* torpedo* fired; however, did you clearly see it traveling at high speeds, or did you see something get fired, and a target blow up, with just a pause inbetween? The probably fired a dummy torpedo, and had a secondary real torpedo hit the target, to make it appear to travel that fast. Unless I can actually see it traveling in the water, I ant going to buy it.

As with most things, what Bush says and what Bush does have little in common. Israel has continued to build new settlements and the wall is still there despite being declared illegal by the world court.
What sanctions has the US imposed on Israel for flouting it's and the rest of the world's will?

What sanctions has the US imposed for Israel's continuing program of assassination? It's hard to have meaningful negotiations when one side has assassinated all the negotiators on the other side.

Those are good points, but I think they are off topic w.r.t Iran.

 

[Burnsys]

UNDERWATER MISSLE. The VA-111 Shkval (Squall) supercavitating torpedo, shown here being launched from a Russian Navy Oscar II-class submarine, rockets to a speed over 200 mph, which would give a targeted vessel little chance to evade it.

The new version troubles top U.S. Navy brass, who would like to know as much as possible about the advanced Shkval before it finds its way to places such as China and Iran.

http://diodon349.com/Kursk-Memorial/storm_over_the_squall.htm

A downgraded Shkval, the Shkval-E went to an international arms fairs in 1995, and both China, Iran and France have been known to have acquired limited numbers of Shkvals. The Russian press has claimed that the technology of the Shkval cannot be reverse-engineered and thus the Russian Navy is marketing the export variant aggressively.

http://worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=1173

 

[Cyrus]

Nice links. From reading them, and doing a google search; however, I still don't see a working prototype of the Shkval.

It would not surprise me that the russians are still working on such a weapon. It would not also surprise me that the US is working or has such a weapon. (If they are, they sure as hell ant going to announce it to the world.) I am curious, how do they 'burn' underwater? That thing's got to have an onboard oxgyen tank?

 

[Burnsys]

STATUS
The weapon was deployed in the early 1990s, and had been in service for years when its existence was publicly disclosed. In 1995, it was revealed that development had begun in the 1960s, when the Research Institute NII-24, previously involved in artillery ammunition research, was ordered to help develop an underwater high-speed missile to combat nuclear-powered submarines. On May 14, 1969, a government mandate created the Research Institute of Applied Hydromechanics (NII PGM), which was the predecessor of today's Region Scientific Production Association.
A modernized "Shkval" was placed on display at the 1995 international armaments show in Abu Dhabi, but it was discarded. Later, an improved model was designed with a conventional warhead and a guided targeting system. The first tests of this "smart" Shkval torpedo were conducted by the Russian Pacific Fleet in early 1998.

The Region Scientific Production Association has developed an export modification of the missile, the Shkval-E. Russia first marketed this conventionally armed version at the IDEX 99 exhibition in Abu Dhabi in early 1999.

Russia reportedly sold China 40 conventionally armed Shkval-Es in the mid-1990s

http://www.periscope.ucg.com/mdb-smpl/weapons/minetorp/torpedo/w0004768.shtml

. Bauman is part of Moscow State Technical University, the oldest institute in Russia. Primarily an educational organization, the Institute of Underwater Devices and Robotics has developed a solid propellant that uses water as an oxidizer.

http://www.wtec.org/loyola/subsea/c3_s2.htm

I really don't know if this is the kind of solid fuel this torpedo use..

 

[russ_watters]

They showed the footage of the test firing of the Iranian underwater missile on Sky TV and it worked just fine.

I'm sure it did.

It's key advantage is it is so fast it can be fired unguided as the target doesn't have time to intercept or out manouvre it. This means that forcing evasive action or even destroying the launch vehicle will not prevent the missile hitting it's target.

Ehh, not necessarily. Even not considering turning, the frigate I was on can go from full ahead to a dead stop in under 30 seconds or slightly longer than its 475ft length (it is quite impressive to experience). That means that if this torpedo is fired from a little less than about two miles (as far as it can travel in 30 seconds), a frigate could evade it simply by stopping.

Fired from astern or ahead, it would be a simple matter to turn out of the way.

As with most things, what Bush says and what Bush does have little in common. Israel has continued to build new settlements and the wall is still there despite being declared illegal by the world court.

Huh? Are you claiming Bush built the settlements?

What sanctions has the US imposed on Israel for flouting it's and the rest of the world's will? What sanctions has the US imposed for Israel's continuing program of assassination?

None that I know of - when did I say that we did?

 

[russ_watters]

You don't use unguided weapons systems that move that fast.

And that is one of the key problems with this type of weapon - traveling that fast, it can't use its own sonar because it would simplly drown it out.

I am curious, how do they 'burn' underwater? That thing's got to have an onboard oxgyen tank?

Like any other solid-fuel rocket, the propellant and oxidizer are premixed into one plastic-like substance. Rockets don't breathe air.

 

[Cyrus]

Yeah, your right. I am too used to being around Tomahawk people, I've become Jaded.

 

[Vincent Vega]

You know that torpedo test is great and all, but we probably already have submarines under them right now... sounds like they're rallying their people with that show. They're scared because they're on the Persian Gulf.

So many of their sites are underground, I can't help but wonder if we developed new munitions for Iran? Like bunker-buster, low-yield warheads that are meant for underground sites.

 

[Bystander]

200 mph torpedo? Ohmigod! Range of 1/2 mile to mebbe a mile (fat chance)? Talk about white elephants. The Soviets were playing with the idea for arming hunter-killer subs for dogfighting and surviving --- beats shooting and listening to the opposition shoot when they hear your launch transient --- it's fast enough to kill an opponent before they can get a shot off. Persian Gulf? Iran? Joke --- USN doctrine doesn't allow "threats" within 200 miles of carrier groups in wartime --- lots of luck to the revolutionary guard captain of the launch platform over the 7-10 hours it'll take to approach to shooting distance.

 

[BobG]

I think there's lots of exaggeration by Iran about their capabilities. The problem with that is that the Bush administration also has a record of exaggerating the threat posed by enemy states. That's a situation with a very good chance of spiraling out of control.

In any event, Iran is a potential threat even without any exaggeration. They can launch a missile as far as Israel even if they can't hit a target. If they could attach a nuclear or chemical warhead to the missile, the reaction would be nearly the same for a missile that lands in an occupied part of Israel as for one that lands in an Israeli city - nobody would be waiting for a second attempt. While I doubt Iran is any threat to the US Navy, they are a threat to shipping. It doesn't take much to close down the Strait of Hormuz.

If the US were to decide Iran was too close to developing a nuclear capability, there would be an excellent chance that the US would launch an airstrike against Iranian targets. If Iran responded by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz, then Iranian territory along the Persian Gulf would have to be taken and defended. That would be an interesting endeavor given the military's requirements in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Iran's posturing suggests they don't believe Bush would open a third front and that they'll have free rein to work on their nuclear program for awhile. That practically means that Iran doesn't see anything irrational about the US invading Iraq. I'm not sure I have as much respect for Bush as Iran does.

 

[Gokul43201]

While I doubt Iran is any threat to the US Navy, they are a threat to shipping. It doesn't take much to close down the Strait of Hormuz.

I'm not sure how easy it would be to take a carrier group past the ... umm SoHo, without significant losses. Last I checked, Iran was believed to have over a 100 Silkworms - all positioned just by SoHo. But then, perhaps there would be no need to take a task force through Hormuz...seeing as how the Ronald Reagan is already operating out of Bahrain or Qatar.

 

[Vincent Vega]

Slikworms should be shredded by the almighty Phalanx's, right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MK_15_Phalanx

 

[russ_watters]

Silkworms are large and mediocre cruise missiles and would be unlikely to get through the picket-ship screen. They'd be shot down by Standard SAMs before anyone's Mk15 even saw them.

 

[Art]

Silkworms are large and mediocre cruise missiles and would be unlikely to get through the picket-ship screen. They'd be shot down by Standard SAMs before anyone's Mk15 even saw them.

Yes but you can't always depend on the brits being around to save your butts.

The Phalanx system has not been credited with shooting down any enemy missiles or aircraft.

In February 1991, during the first Gulf War, the USS Missouri and the Phalanx-equipped USS Jarrett were in the vicinity of an Iraqi Silkworm missile (often referred to as the 'Seersucker') that had been fired, either at Missouri or at the nearby HMS Gloucester. After Missouri fired a bundle of chaff, the Phalanx system on Jarrett, operating in the automatic target-acquisition mode, fixed upon Missouri's chaff and fired a burst of rounds (not destroying the incoming missile). From this burst, four rounds hit Missouri, her being two to three miles from Jarrett at the time. There were no injuries.[1] The Seersucker missile was then intercepted by a Sea Dart missile launched from HMS Gloucester. This is the first validated, successful engagement of a missile by a missile, during combat at sea.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MK_15_Phalanx