- #1
jaketodd
Gold Member
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The following discussion is from reading this short paper:
The dangers of non-empirical confirmation
https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.01966
The following are quotes from the paper, and my observations and questions.
"excessive reliance on non-empirical evidence compromises the reliability of science"
However, many theories turn into fact, and so we can't dismiss them as useless before they are matured.
What is it about string theory that seems so unconvincing? Maybe the fact that it's been in existence for decades, with still no empirical data?
"Scientists have always relied on non-empirical arguments to trust theories"
Not truly ethical scientists.
"powerful theoretical, non-empirical, motivations for creating, choosing and developing theories"
Yes, when established fact points in the direction of something new, that's a lot better than just convoluted complexity.
"In Bayesian theory, “confirmation” indicates any evidence in favour of a thesis, however weak"
The however weak support might just be how many people a "scientist" can convince, mystify, and create followers.
"Bayesian confirmation theory allows us to talk about the spectrum of intermediate degrees of credence between
theories that are “confirmed”, in the common sense of the word, or “established”, and theories which are still
“speculative”, or “tentative”. But doing so it obfuscates precisely the divide that does exist in science between a
confirmed theory and a tentative one. We trust the existence of the Higgs particle, which is today the weakest of
the confirmed theories, with a 5-sigma reliability, namely a Bayesian degree of confidence of 99.9999%. In their domains of validity, classical electrodynamics or Newtonian mechanics are even far more reliable: we routinely entrust our life to them. No sensible person would entrust her life to a prediction of string theory."
It seems like these scientists are way over-eager to accept and proliferate theories, which are interesting, but don't have enough, if any, empirical data, even after plenty of time for those theories to produce experiments, which can test them.
"Why is this relevant for non-empirical confirmation? Because non-empirical evidence is emphatically insufficient to increase the confidence of a theory to the point where we can consider it established; that is, to move it from “maybe” to “reliable”"
Although, if a theory, even if not supported by empirical data, is strongly implied by existing confirmed fact, then that does half the work of calling a new theory good.
"we all tend to be blinded by our beliefs"
Confirmation bias, and the power of suggestion.
I think a lot of scientists, and especially string theorists, escape into complexity - betting that no one has the incredibly advanced math to disagree with them. But the lack of empirical data speaks volumes, even if you don't understand all their advanced math.
"string theorists commonly claim that string theory has no alternatives (“the only game in town”)"
Sounds like turf protection. Publish, and convince, or perish.
"Scientists that devoted their life to a theory have difficulty to let it go, hanging on non-empirical arguments to save their beliefs, in the face of empirical results that Bayes confirmation theory counts as negative."
Devotion without skepticism is a beast, especially when you have a wild card theory that is so nebulous, that it can never be proven wrong. And, by this same token, can never be proven right; because it can just morph into a form that isn't proven right.
I did a check, and there still isn't any empirical, experimental evidence for string theory.
So, what do you guys think about all this, and string theory? If you want to talk about other areas of physics theory that are related to these ideas, start a new thread, and let me know, so I can read it.
Thanks!
Jake
The dangers of non-empirical confirmation
https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.01966
The following are quotes from the paper, and my observations and questions.
"excessive reliance on non-empirical evidence compromises the reliability of science"
However, many theories turn into fact, and so we can't dismiss them as useless before they are matured.
What is it about string theory that seems so unconvincing? Maybe the fact that it's been in existence for decades, with still no empirical data?
"Scientists have always relied on non-empirical arguments to trust theories"
Not truly ethical scientists.
"powerful theoretical, non-empirical, motivations for creating, choosing and developing theories"
Yes, when established fact points in the direction of something new, that's a lot better than just convoluted complexity.
"In Bayesian theory, “confirmation” indicates any evidence in favour of a thesis, however weak"
The however weak support might just be how many people a "scientist" can convince, mystify, and create followers.
"Bayesian confirmation theory allows us to talk about the spectrum of intermediate degrees of credence between
theories that are “confirmed”, in the common sense of the word, or “established”, and theories which are still
“speculative”, or “tentative”. But doing so it obfuscates precisely the divide that does exist in science between a
confirmed theory and a tentative one. We trust the existence of the Higgs particle, which is today the weakest of
the confirmed theories, with a 5-sigma reliability, namely a Bayesian degree of confidence of 99.9999%. In their domains of validity, classical electrodynamics or Newtonian mechanics are even far more reliable: we routinely entrust our life to them. No sensible person would entrust her life to a prediction of string theory."
It seems like these scientists are way over-eager to accept and proliferate theories, which are interesting, but don't have enough, if any, empirical data, even after plenty of time for those theories to produce experiments, which can test them.
"Why is this relevant for non-empirical confirmation? Because non-empirical evidence is emphatically insufficient to increase the confidence of a theory to the point where we can consider it established; that is, to move it from “maybe” to “reliable”"
Although, if a theory, even if not supported by empirical data, is strongly implied by existing confirmed fact, then that does half the work of calling a new theory good.
"we all tend to be blinded by our beliefs"
Confirmation bias, and the power of suggestion.
I think a lot of scientists, and especially string theorists, escape into complexity - betting that no one has the incredibly advanced math to disagree with them. But the lack of empirical data speaks volumes, even if you don't understand all their advanced math.
"string theorists commonly claim that string theory has no alternatives (“the only game in town”)"
Sounds like turf protection. Publish, and convince, or perish.
"Scientists that devoted their life to a theory have difficulty to let it go, hanging on non-empirical arguments to save their beliefs, in the face of empirical results that Bayes confirmation theory counts as negative."
Devotion without skepticism is a beast, especially when you have a wild card theory that is so nebulous, that it can never be proven wrong. And, by this same token, can never be proven right; because it can just morph into a form that isn't proven right.
I did a check, and there still isn't any empirical, experimental evidence for string theory.
So, what do you guys think about all this, and string theory? If you want to talk about other areas of physics theory that are related to these ideas, start a new thread, and let me know, so I can read it.
Thanks!
Jake