Breaking Down the 2016 POTUS Race Contenders & Issues

[Dembadon]

Not really. Of course if less people voted for him he'd be in a different position, and of course if people stop voting for him he won't be the nominee. That doesn't really say anything at all. Averaging around a third of the vote is a much better point, but then again, it's enough to put him in the lead.

That's not the point his post was making. It showed that not enough people have weighed in yet, so "enough to put him in the lead" isn't a particularly worthwhile measurement.

I already said I'll take back my mobilizing comment (it's not really essential), but you're still trivializing that "portion" of the Republican base. I don't think the difference between "he represents the Republicans right now" and "he represents enough Republicans to make him the likely candidate" is really essential, or that anyone could take it as literally as you are unless they make a real effort. But we're getting nowhere, so I'll agree to disagree. If Trump ends up not being the nominee, I'll return and gladly post that he doesn't represent modern Republicans.

If you're taking back the mobilizing comment, then I'm not sure what else there is to talk about. I agree though, we should probably drop it for now.

 

[Dembadon]

Regarding Trump's fuel: I believe a large factor in what's keep him going is all the attention he's getting, not that this is new information to anyone, but I think it's something that needs to be addressed by the media.

I'm extremely disappointed that he gets so much coverage in the media. Almost every single major media outlet writes multiple stories on what happens in his campaign, whether it's rioting at his rallies or his ludicrous behavior on social media. They increase the level of attention and extend their coverage of each event asking other candidates about him in their interviews.

[wishful thinking]
I wish we'd stop covering him. Ignore him. I wish other candidates would refuse to answer questions about him unless it specifically relates to his position on a relevant issue. Don't answer questions about the ancillary events surrounding his campaign. If asked, respond with "I would rather not comment on that. He's getting enough attention, but I'd be happy to tell you about how I plan to..."
[/wishful thinking]

If the media and other candidates were to start acting like he doesn't exist (within reason), I think it would take some air out of his sails; when a cursing toddler no longer gets a reaction from the adults in the room, they usually move on to other things.

 

[gleem]

It was revealed on the national news that about 25 % of republican would not vote for any of the current candidates if nominated. So 25% of the republicans will sit it out. Looks good for the democratic candidate.

 

[Evo]

It was revealed on the national news that about 25 % of republican would not vote for any of the current candidates if nominated. So 25% of the republicans will sit it out. Looks good for the democratic candidate.

Did they say how many Democrats won't vote?

 

[mheslep]

Kasich wins GOP Ohio, ~9pts. Here comes the brokered convention. Last one was, umm...

 

[russ_watters]

Well, that's kind of what our tete-a-tete here is all about, isn't it. I'm making the argument that he is not serious...

That's been my perception as well.

Let me add to that...I don't think he was initially serious about becoming president. I think he's as serious as f#%$ now wondering what the hell he got himself into.

And that. His flip flop on the issue of bombing terrorists' families breaks the mold of the never-apologize bombast and implies to me he's starting to wonder if he should try to be serious.

 

[russ_watters]

Kasich wins GOP Ohio, ~9pts. Here comes the brokered convention. Last one was, umm...

Rubio dropped out. My concern remains that the more "establishment" republicans split that vote and Trump still comes out on top. I guess I'll need to look into more how the brokered convention works, though...

 

[mheslep]

Regarding Trump's fuel: I believe a large factor in what's keep him going is all the attention he's getting, not that this is new information to anyone, but I think it's something that needs to be addressed by the media...

If the media and other candidates were to start acting like he doesn't exist (within reason), I think it would take some air out of his sails; when a cursing toddler no longer gets a reaction from the adults in the room, they usually move on to other things.

Exactly, but it's not going to happen. Couple weeks ago, chairman of CBS, Moonves:

"The money’s rolling in and this is fun, ... I’ve never seen anything like this, and this going to be a very good year for us. Sorry. It’s a terrible thing to say. But, bring it on, Donald. Keep going.”By contrast, the Democrats will have to drag the networks kicking and screaming to cover the droll Clinton corronation.

 

[russ_watters]

By contrast, the Democrats will have to drag the networks at gunpoint to get them cover the droll Clinton coronation.

Except when starting out a debate by saying: So, Ms Clinton, what do you think of Trump...?

 

[mheslep]

Rubio dropped out. My concern remains that the more "establishment" republicans split that vote and Trump still comes out on top. I guess I'll need to look into more how the brokered convention works, though...

Well, there goes my recent pick, after another one dropped out some time ago.

I guess that the core of the anti trump GOP lies with Rubio, if it's at all like me. The stand up QnA press conference Rubio gave a couple days ago was the best anti Trump communication I've seen yet. If so, I think Rubio's support goes anywhere but Trump, if for no other reason than Trump's the least likely to beat Clinton.

 

[mheslep]

Except when starting out a debate by saying: So, Ms Clinton, what do you think of Trump...?

Perhaps while split screening this ...

https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/i...7781438806851.jpg?uuid=Xge46juxEeWI0-YhMKzJdQ

 

[Dotini]

Rubio dropped out.

Goodbye Rubio Tuesday!

(apologies to the Rolling Stones)

 

[Astronuc]

Kasich wins GOP Ohio, ~9pts. Here comes the brokered convention. Last one was, umm...

According to RealClearPolitics.com, the last brokered conventions were in the Democratic Convention of 1952 when it took three ballots to nominate Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson, and four years earlier in the Republican Convention of 1948, in which New York Governor Thomas Dewey won that one, also after three ballots.

Similar information is published on sever sites. I was going to use the Wikipedia article on brokered/contested conventions, but it apparently contains some inaccuracies. I checked the rules for the GOP convention this year, and they didn't seem to match with a quote about the rules in the Wikipedia article.

Democratic convention 1952
http://time.com/4252345/brokered-convention-graphic/

Here's What Would Happen in a Brokered G.O.P. Convention
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/03/trump-contested-convention

The Vanity Fair article is interesting.

From various news sources, Rubio 'suspended' his campaign, but did not 'drop out' or 'withdraw', so he would enter the convention with those delegates. I heard tonight that his delegates are bound to him through the first ballot. He could of course, give them to Cruz or Kasich, or otherwise, they'd at some point become free.

 

[Dotini]

I'm old, wealthy, happy in every way and no candidate's victory is going to affect my life in any practical way. For the previous six presidential elections I've voted my conscience - which has been something other than a Democrat or Republican. However, in the present election we are confronted with the imminent destruction of the Republican party, and US citizens have a real choice: For stasis (more of the same) vote Democrat, presumably Hillary if she's not indicted, and let the Republicans fix their problems in the wilderness. For change, vote Republican - Cruz or Trump, whoever is ahead, and throw the party and the nation into the crucible of transformative change. A Trump/Cruz ticket or a Trump/Kasich ticket might well win the general election against the damaged Clinton, and provide a thrill ride for a new generation seeking the repatriation of jobs and monies both parties have been sending abroad since GATT, WTO, NAFTA and ensuing trade deals begun decades ago.

 

[jim hardy]

The Vanity Fair article is interesting.

Very interesting indeed.
So is the Chuck Todd interview it links to
here's the Dimassimo video that Todd declared a hoax

you decide,,,
and there's this about Dimassimo
http://stop-hate-crimes.com/2016/03/14/perp-who-charged-donald-trump-co-wrote-and-starred-in-race-war-film/
hard to believe there is such a film but check imdb

Vanity Fair's author wrote:

They varied widely in their politics. But what united them was a feeling that powerful people would do as they liked, regardless of who was in office.

In my circles which are not high-brow that is just what's behind the Trump movement. Astute journalist.

Maybe it's decades of movies, literature and punditry portraying evil cabals running things behind the scenes that's made so many people so receptive. Hoffer says in "True Believer" that

Mass movements begin with "men of words" or "fault-finding intellectuals" such as clergy, journalists, academics, and students who condemn the established social order (such as Gandhi, Trotsky, Mohammed, and Lenin).

He wrote that in 1951, well before Star Wars, Taylor Caldwell, Michael Moore and Fox News.
Even that innocent love story "Titanic" hinted at class warfare:
DiCaprio's dinner in First Class was a snooty backbiting affair ,
compare that scene's mood to the dance in steerage -
the not too subliminal message is "high-brow bad, low-brow good".

Vanity Fair observed

They tended to have missed the latest New York Times editorial-board memos on race and gender propriety.

They're more likely to have read
http://www.rense.com/general96/trumpdanger.html
One man's propaganda is another man's gospel.

I'm not advocating that rense piece
i'm just saying Trump is a natural product of the cultural cynicism we've sown .
That cynicism set in place place a powderkeg for drastic change .

How will it go ?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer (but i really recommend the book)

Hoffer does not take an exclusively negative view of "true believers" and the mass movements they begin. He gives examples of how the same forces that give rise to true believer mass movements can be channelled in more positive ways:

There are, of course, rare leaders such as Lincoln, Gandhi, even F.D.R., Churchill, and Nehru. They do not hesitate to harness man's hungers and fears to weld a following and make it zealous unto death in service of a holy cause; but unlike a Hitler, a Stalin, or even a Luther and a Calvin, they are not tempted to use the slime of frustrated souls as mortar in the building of a new world... They know that no one can be honorable unless he honors mankind".

— p.147

The Lady or the Tiger ?

Hang on to your hat.

old jim

 

[DiracPool]

A Trump/Cruz ticket or a Trump/Kasich ticket might well win the general election against the damaged Clinton

Kasich stated pretty clearly that he would not run with Trump, and I believe him. Cruz might, though. Once this primary is over, though, get ready for the Obama bashing.

I get really puzzled when all these republicans talk about how the Obama presidency was a "disaster." I remember when George W. was president, I was constantly shocked and scared at the incompetence of these people. I haven't felt that way since Obama took office, to be frank. As far as I can see from the big picture of things, Obama pulled us out of a possible major depression, pulled us out of Iraq and Afghanistan, hunted down and killed Osama Bin Laden, and seemingly did several other things to, yes, clean up the mess George W. Bush and the republican bozos left behind. I shudder to think what would have happened if Obama didn't win.

So, basically, I don't understand this Obama bashing. I can see why Hillary would want to hitch her car to Obama's train. That's the logical move, as far as I can see.

 

[mheslep]

... pulled us out of Iraq and Afghanistan...

Edit: Obama sharply increased the troop levels in Afghanistan, then decreased them though the US is not out and will not be when Obama leaves office. The US has thousands of troops in both Iraq and http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/624447/obama-adjusts-troop-levels-for-continuing-afghanistan-mission, is still taking casualties in Afghanistan, attacked Libya.

Obama said he would maintain the current posture of 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through most of 2016.

"Boots on the ground? We have 3,500 boots on the ground" in Iraq and "we're looking for opportunities to do more,"

 

[DiracPool]

The US has thousands of troops in both, is still taking casualties in Afghanistan, attacked Libya.

And that's supposed to be who's fault? Obama's? Are you trying to tell me that if the neo-cons stayed in power there would have been more peace in the world? If Bush had another year or two in office, Iran was next and who knows after that. All I know is that, during the Bush administration, the world hated us, and I didn't like us much either. Now I don't feel that way and the rest of the world doesn't either. I mean, other than the usual hate You know what I mean, there's the usual hate everyone has for America and then there's the scary George W Bush kind of hate.

 

[gleem]

Did they say how many Democrats won't vote?

No. not on that program. This morning it was reported in another republican poll that 40% of republicans polled would vote for a third party candidate.

 

[mheslep]

And that's supposed to be who's fault? Obama's?

Sykes-Picot agreement, Britain and France and the partitioning of the Middle East? If the idea is to renounce responsibility for two presidential terms, might as well go way back.

Are you trying to tell me that if the neo-cons stayed in power there would have been more peace in the world? If Bush had another year or two in office, Iran was next and who knows after that. All I know is that, during the Bush administration, the world hated us, and I didn't like us much either. Now I don't feel that way and the rest of the world doesn't either. I mean, other than the usual hate You know what I mean, there's the usual hate everyone has for America and then there's the scary George W Bush kind of hate.

If you want a discussion, start with the facts, then we can go on to subjective conclusions. When claiming to know what the "world" thinks, I see only an interest in narrative, immune to the history.

 

[Astronuc]

Donald Trump is winning all the angry states
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-is-winning-all-the-angry-states-135937120.html
He's dominating states with weak economies -- but is vulnerable in most prosperous states.

Anger with an underperforming economy isn’t the only factor determining voter loyalties. Exit polls, for instance, show that some Republicans feel betrayed by their party, leading them to outsider candidates such as Trump. Among Democrats, Bernie Sanders’ campaign has clearly been driven by voters fed up with the status quo, yet Sanders has only won 9 of 25 states, while his rival Hillary Clinton—the very face of the Democratic establishment—seems poised to win the nomination.

I hear commentary about how great the economy is, but it seems a lot of folks feel left behind, because they are struggling with incomes that don't provide a certain standard of living in conjunction with too much debt.

 

[mheslep]

So, basically, I don't understand this Obama bashing.

To find a 8 yr period where US annual GDP growth has not gone above 3% one has to go back to the Great Depression.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA

Real unemployment, U6, has averaged 13%
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

CBO on Obama federal minwage hike would cause employment drop in range from slight to 1 million, central estimate 500,000.

Once fully implemented in the second half of 2016, the $10.10 option would reduce total employment by about 500,000 workers,...

 

[DiracPool]

To find a 8 yr period where US annual GDP growth has not gone above 3% one has to go back to the Great Depression.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA

Real unemployment, U6, has averaged 13%
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

CBO on Obama federal minwage hike would cause employment drop in range from slight to 1 million, central estimate 500,000.

Thanks, I'm going to email those links to my dad whose property value plummeted from 940K to 450K back in 2008 but is now steadily getting back on track. I'm also going to email it to three of my vendors that went out of business and several of my friends that lost their jobs at the same time, all of which, after more than a year of being basically unemployed after the Bush financial crash, have slowly rebuilt their lives and careers. I think these links will convince them how terrible Obama's fiscal policy is and how we need to revert back to trickle down economics. I'll let you know what they say.

 

[mheslep]

What has Obama done on policy with regard to what you call "trickle down economics" that is a change from the Bush years?

 

[DiracPool]

What has Obama done on policy with regard to "trickle down economics" that is a change from the Bush years?

I don't know, I'm not an economist. All I know is that Obama did some kind of "Keynesian shuffle" that seemed to stem the bleeding. The last press conference I remember Bush having was this one:



After that, it was bad times. I don't remember Obama holding a press conference like this one.

 

[jim hardy]

And it's sure a good thing we didn't help topple any more regimes around the Mediterranean.

 

[Astronuc]

Trump warns of 'riots' if denied White House nomination
http://news.yahoo.com/trump-warns-possible-riots-doesnt-white-house-nod-004546794.html

"If you disenfranchise those people and say, 'I'm sorry, you're 100 votes short,' even though the next one is 500 votes short, I think you would see problems like you've never seen before," he [Trump] said.

"I think bad things would happen. I really do. I wouldn't lead it, but I think bad things would happen."

The Washington Post reporter notes: Donald Trump just threatened more violence. Only this time, it’s directed at the GOP.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...lence-only-this-time-its-directed-at-the-gop/

Trump said Wednesday that a contested GOP convention could be a disaster if he goes to Cleveland a few delegates shy of 1,237 — and doesn’t leave as the party’s nominee.

“I think you’d have riots,” Trump said on CNN.

Noting that he’s “representing many millions of people,” he told Chris Cuomo: “If you disenfranchise those people, and you say, ‘I’m sorry, you’re 100 votes short’…I think you’d have problems like you’ve never seen before. I think bad things would happen.”

He wouldn't lead it, but he certainly seems to be suggesting it.

 

[Dembadon]

Kasich stated pretty clearly that he would not run with Trump, and I believe him. Cruz might, though. Once this primary is over, though, get ready for the Obama bashing.

I get really puzzled when all these republicans talk about how the Obama presidency was a "disaster." I remember when George W. was president, I was constantly shocked and scared at the incompetence of these people. I haven't felt that way since Obama took office, to be frank. As far as I can see from the big picture of things, Obama pulled us out of a possible major depression, pulled us out of Iraq and Afghanistan, hunted down and killed Osama Bin Laden, and seemingly did several other things to, yes, clean up the mess George W. Bush and the republican bozos left behind. I shudder to think what would have happened if Obama didn't win.

So, basically, I don't understand this Obama bashing. I can see why Hillary would want to hitch her car to Obama's train. That's the logical move, as far as I can see.

Isn't this thread about the 2016 POTUS race? Should probably start a new thread.

 

[DiracPool]

Isn't this thread about the 2016 POTUS race? Should probably start a new thread.

And why's that? You don't think recent history is relevant to this current race? My point is that, come the general election, it's going to come down to Trump vs. Hillary. We know what Trump is, but what is Hillary? Well, she's two things: 1) She has the Legacy of the 90's Clinton regime and, 2) the legacy of the Obama regime. George W. Bush's legacy is sandwiched between the two. You don't think that the main theme of the general election debate post the primaries is going to be "Do you want another 8 years of Obama and Bill Clinton, America?"

 

[Dembadon]

And why's that?

The question was pretty broad: "why all the Obama hate?" You're going to have to work pretty hard to keep that on track with the developments in the current candidates' campaigns.

You don't think recent history is relevant to this current race?

The only thing I'm questioning is the degree of relevance, not whether it's relevant.

My point is that, come the general election, it's going to come down to Trump vs. Hillary. We know what Trump is, but what is Hillary? Well, she's two things: 1) She has the Legacy of the 90's Clinton regime and, 2) the legacy of the Obama regime. You don't think that the main theme of the general election debate post the primaries is going to be "Do you want another 8 years of Obama, America?"

Well, a number of posts have been made about Bush's presidency. I don't see Trump adopting any of his policies or methods any time soon, so it's already veering off course.

That's just my take on it. I have no issues discussing your question, just letting you know that it might be harder to keep on topic than you think. Of course, it's up to the mentors. If they let it go I'll be happy to join. Just keeping a safe distance for the time being.

 

[russ_watters]

In general, candidates of incumbent parties will hitch their wagon to their predecessor or not based on whether they think it will help them. One of the things that hurt Gore in 2000 was that being the VP it was impossible to unhitch his wagon from Clinton and while the economy was good in the Clinton years, unfortunately for Gore, the stock market crashed and we were entering a recession as he was trying to get elected.

 

[jim hardy]

He wouldn't lead it, but he certainly seems to be suggesting it.

There are plenty of immoderates threatening it .

Ascribing the origin of the threat to Trump is not honest reporting.

I expect mob violence outside the convention, mostly AFL-CIO backed.

 

[mheslep]

There are plenty of immoderates threatening it .

Ascribing the origin of the threat to Trump is not honest reporting.

...

That's all true, and the violent protesters, the disruptive and their organizers are grossly under-covered, all while the one-punch senior citizen Trump supporter for a moment became, I imagine, the most famous guy in the US.

None of this excuses a serious presidential candidate for excusing (and threatening) riots if he fails to win due to not getting enough votes. It is Trump who's has first to call for the rules to be bent, that if he falls a little short, he should win anyway. Here's what is known about the majority of GOP primary voters so far: they support not-Trump, 701 to 621.

 

[jim hardy]

Here's what is known about the majority of GOP primary voters so far: they support not-Trump, 701 to 621.

Both GOP frontrunners present themselves as anti "GOP-establishment ". That's no small part of their appeal.
Robert Reich observes: 'the largest US political party is the folks who don't vote.'
They're coming out in droves to vote for Trump and Sanders.

I expect the establishment GOP to finagle their rules so convention can nominate Kasich.

A Trump/Sanders third party would only mildly surprise me, probably assuring Hillary in '16.

As much as i'd be disappointed by that turn of events - we have to live in the world we're in.

old jim

 

[Dembadon]

I expect the establishment GOP to finagle their rules so convention can nominate Kasich.

There's a lot of fuss about this from Trump's supporters. As I understand things, states bind their delegates for the first ballot at the convention. Some states, like Tennessee, bind them for the first two rounds. Are you saying the RNC will throw that rule out? Is there any rational reason to suspect a conspiracy theory that would require hundreds of delegates to break the current rules that are in place for the convention?