Breaking Down the 2016 POTUS Race Contenders & Issues

[Vanadium 50]

Jeffrey H. Anderson has an interesting, largely mathematical discussion of the race here: http://www.weeklystandard.com/electoral-mapmaking/article/2004500. (The Weekly Standard does tilt right, but math is math)

His contention is that Secretary Clinton has 5 must-win states: PA, MI, WI, MN and VA and Mr. Trump has 3: OH, FL and NC. At the present time, both candidates are ahead in their must-win states.

What follows is my opinion, building on Andreson's analysis: Using the latest polling, Secretary Clinton would get 272 electoral votes and Mr. Trump 266. But what if the polls are wrong? Suppose they are wrong by the same amount that the Brexit polls were wrong. There are both similarlities and differences. The most obvious difference is that the sample population is completely different. In my view, the biggest similarity is that people on one side are considered "deplorables" by the other,

That turns over NH, MI, WI and CO, for a Trump victory: 304-234.

Suppose the effect is only half as large as in the UK: now only CO and NH turn. In this scenario, Trump still wins, 278 to 260.

Suppose the effect is only a quarter as large as in the UK: now only NH turns. In this scenario, it's a tie. That means the election goes to House of Representatives, where it is voted on by State. Presently, the GP holds 33 states, the Democrats hold 14, and NH, ME and NJ are tied.

I think the election is closer than most pundits say.

 

[mheslep]

This election certainly doesn't inspire confidence for the next four years, especially if deficits continue and debt continues upward.

Peggy Noonan, from her hypothetical conversations with strangers:

...I say if Hillary Clinton is elected there will be at least one special prosecutor, maybe two, within 18 months, because her character will not be reborn on crossing the threshold of the White House; the well-worn grooves of her essential nature will kick in. If Mr. Trump is elected there will be a constitutional crisis within 18 months because he doesn’t really know what a president does, doesn’t respect traditional boundaries, doesn’t reflect on implications and effects.

 

[Salvador]

I like your analysis Vanadium.

 

[Evo]

Clinton now ahead in the polls!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[Vanadium 50]

Clinton now ahead in the polls!

Is this news? I thought she's always been ahead (looking at the averages).

 

[Evo]

Is this news? I thought she's always been ahead (looking at the averages).

Recently she was tied or Trump was ahead in a couple of polls. We'll see where she is after the debates.

 

[mheslep]

From the trend lines, the news seems to be that Clinton, in the last few days, has slightly broken Trump's trend of gaining for the last many weeks.

 

[kyphysics]

Jeffrey H. Anderson has an interesting, largely mathematical discussion of the race here: http://www.weeklystandard.com/electoral-mapmaking/article/2004500. (The Weekly Standard does tilt right, but math is math)

His contention is that Secretary Clinton has 5 must-win states: PA, MI, WI, MN and VA and Mr. Trump has 3: OH, FL and NC. At the present time, both candidates are ahead in their must-win states.

What follows is my opinion, building on Andreson's analysis: Using the latest polling, Secretary Clinton would get 272 electoral votes and Mr. Trump 266. But what if the polls are wrong? Suppose they are wrong by the same amount that the Brexit polls were wrong. There are both similarlities and differences. The most obvious difference is that the sample population is completely different. In my view, the biggest similarity is that people on one side are considered "deplorables" by the other,

That turns over NH, MI, WI and CO, for a Trump victory: 304-234.

Suppose the effect is only half as large as in the UK: now only CO and NH turn. In this scenario, Trump still wins, 278 to 260.

Suppose the effect is only a quarter as large as in the UK: now only NH turns. In this scenario, it's a tie. That means the election goes to House of Representatives, where it is voted on by State. Presently, the GP holds 33 states, the Democrats hold 14, and NH, ME and NJ are tied.

I think the election is closer than most pundits say.

PA is virtually a tie now.

Could actually swing Trump's way.

That was interesting analysis, btw. I really want to see the polls POST-debates.

 

[Salvador]

Given either Trump or Hillary , I really want to see the US POST-election...
I have a feeling the news will have much more material.

 

[Astronuc]

From the last post in the first Clinton-Trump debate
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/1st-presidential-debate-2016-thread.886833/page-3#post-5578289

Some polls indicate Clinton won, and some indicate Trump won.

CNN said Hillary won the debate. Why do so many polls seem to say otherwise?
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/m/ffaab72e-0258-3b16-a4d2-a6af78afd255/ss_cnn-said-hillary-won-the.html
http://mashable.com/2016/09/27/online-polls-tell-different-story-debate.amp

The Mashable article claims, "The poll, which Drudge linked to and which was shared by some #TrumpWon supporters on Twitter, actually came from a fake ABC News site with the address "abcnewsgo.co," not the outlet's real site, "abcnews.go.com." I think though that Drudge Report has its own poll, but I would expect Trump to do well in a Drudge poll.

Clinton Won The Debate, Which Means She’s Likely To Gain In The Polls
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/

CNBC reports on European reactions: 'Harsh but no knockout blow': Europe's media react to Clinton-Trump duel
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/harsh-no-knockout-blow-europes-063722359.html

 

[Dotini]

Both sides should have genuine concern that the other side has many supporters and the other side could win. But what happens after the election? Is the population so polarized that democracy as usual cannot go forward? Frankly, I'm worried about that.

 

[Salvador]

Don't worry Dotini , " The show must go on", a cool Queen song with much artistic and it seems hidden political value.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Some polls indicate Clinton won, and some indicate Trump won.

I think the case could be made that they both won. The Clinton strategy is to gin up the base, not to swing undecideds, and the Trump strategy is the reverse. ("Strategy" may not the the right word here, since there is a large circumstantial component to these decisions) It's still early for the polls, but what information we have suggests both things happened.

 

[russ_watters]

Is entitlement reform an issue in this election? I hadn't heard anyone mention it, but it should be:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ecord-entitlement-reform-third-rail/91258118/

...and this is perhaps a continuation of a discussion with @OmCheeto in another thread that is dragging it off topic.

Hillary's position is that she can fix the shortfall by raising the income cap, and she's probably right. The problem is, as she says, "Social Security isn't just a program - it's a promise." And that "fix" terminates the promise for upper middle class Americans and above by decoupling their benefits from their incomes.

The rest of her positions are just tye typical pandering to SS recipients (she won't make changes to ...) and fail to address realities. Number one on her list is "fight any attempts to gamble seniors' retirement security on the stock market through privatization." ...despite the reality that this is the only solution that addresses all (any?) of the shortcomings of Social Security. Any expert will tell you and most individuals know that the vast majority of your retirement savings should be in the stock market (with a reducing fraction when you get older).

Donald Trump's position is...well...incoherent, so there's that.

I'm screwed, but my hope and expectation is that politicians do nothing until B/D-Day. Then when the building has collapsed around them, they'll finally be ready to talk about fixing it.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

What a complete dud Gary Johnson has become
http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/gary-johnson-cant-name-a-single-foreign-leader-1787208839

 

[mheslep]

Donald Trump's position is...well...incoherent, so there's that.

Not completely. If Trump has a consistent, plausible economic message, a big if, then it is more economic growth (and thus more govt revenue), and he proposes some measures likely to do so if he pulls them off. If Trump is successful he's more likely to improve the the deficit problem than will Clinton's tax the rich tinkering. Recall in the GOP primary period the debates about how to achieve 4% growth. The Democrats had no such debate. If the US continues along the disaster of 1 or 2% growth then nothing will remedy entitlements without hacking at the spending.

 

[gleem]

Not completely. If Trump has a consistent, plausible economic message, a big if, then it is more economic growth (and thus more govt revenue), and he proposes some measures likely to do so if he pulls them off. If Trump is successful he's more likely to improve the the deficit problem than will Clinton's tax the rich tinkering. Recall in the GOP primary period the debates about how to achieve 4% growth. The Democrats had no such debate. If the US continues along the disaster of 1 or 2% growth then nothing will remedy entitlements without hacking at the spending.

All of the analysis' of Trumps economic programs that I have seen have shown that the deficit of his programs is likely to exceed that of Clinton programs of up to 10:1. He is significantly cutting taxes on everybody including companies thus greatly reducing revenue.

 

[mheslep]

All of the analysis' of Trumps economic programs that I have seen have shown that the deficit of his programs is likely to exceed that of Clinton programs of up to 10:1. He is significantly cutting taxes on everybody including companies thus greatly reducing revenue.

Maybe, not "thus". Government revenue is a function of tax rates *and* economic output. Reagan cut tax rates but federal revenue doubled from 1980 to 1990 (28% real increase) with the large economic growth in the period. Spending also increase under Reagan and Tip Oneil, outpacing the higher revenue. Also, cutting business taxes doesn't completely eliminate revenue from the foregone business tax, but to a degree (not necessarily one for one) moves the tax elsewhere, to personal income or dividend income, as the businesses hopefully spend their income in higher wages, more wages to more employees as they grow, or dividends to investors.

The scoring analyses I've seen so far are static in terms of revenue, ie they include caveats like no consideration of "macro economic feedback effects".

 

[Dotini]

The Holy Grail of any modern economy is growth. Without it, we face the Apocalypse of unsustainable, unpayable debt and eventually either default or debasement of the currency.

 

[mheslep]

The Holy Grail of any modern economy is growth. Without it, we face the Apocalypse of unsustainable, unpayable debt and eventually either default or debasement of the currency.

Well, the Grail of any economy with over 100% GDP government debt and a growing population had *better be* robust economic growth.

 

[russ_watters]

What a complete dud Gary Johnson has become
http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/gary-johnson-cant-name-a-single-foreign-leader-1787208839

It's very disappointing. On paper, he should be great, but there is some screw loose in his head. I'm probably going to choose to assume that it is social anxiety and vote for him anyway.

 

[CalcNerd]

It's too bad that the debates did not let Gary join onstage for the debates. It would have been such a better photo opt than this shot taken backstage and after the debates.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

What a complete dud Gary Johnson has become
http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/gary-johnson-cant-name-a-single-foreign-leader-1787208839

Well, the headline doesn't quite the match the actual question which was about what foreign leader(s) he admired. I can name a few leaders, but I can't say I admire any. I used to admire Angela Merkel, but not anymore. Having said that, I do think he blew it twice now and I could never vote for him.

 

[SW VandeCarr]

View attachment 106690

It's too bad that the debates did not let Gary join onstage for the debates. It would have been such a better photo opt than this shot taken backstage and after the debates.

Who's the third one supposed to be if not Johnson? (I think he should be the one on the right, sticking his tongue out at those jerks that asked him such hard questions.)

 

[Vanadium 50]

...despite the reality that this is the only solution that addresses all (any?) of the shortcomings of Social Security. Any expert will tell you and most individuals know that the vast majority of your retirement savings should be in the stock market

Do you think it is a good idea for the Federal Government to become the world's largest investor? How long do you think it will be before the President directs Social Security to buy Coke instead of Pepsi because Coke contributed more to his campaign? And what will be the effect on the market as an investment choice if buy and sell decisions of the largest investor are based on politics?

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, the headline doesn't quite the match the actual question which was about what foreign leader(s) he admired. I can name a few leaders, but I can't say I admire any.

I agree. Also, the number of foreign leaders who subscribe to libertarian principles is very small. I can't really think of any. He might have been able to get away by naming a foreign leader who is/was a strong supporter of democracy, even if that person were not particularly libertarian, such as King Juan Carlos of Spain or Lech Walesa of Poland.

 

[russ_watters]

Do you think it is a good idea for the Federal Government to become the world's largest investor?

No, I don't, considering how poorly that is currently working out for us! That's one of the things I'd like to change!

I would assume if I got to manage the money myself (perhaps with some limits, rather like my 401k), I wouldn't be allowed to lend the money to myself (issue myself bonds), charge myself interest and call it growth!

 

[nsaspook]

It's very disappointing. On paper, he should be great, but there is some screw loose in his head. I'm probably going to choose to assume that it is social anxiety and vote for him anyway.

I admire the guy.
http://www.nbcnews.com/card/gary-johnson-still-cant-come-foreign-leader-he-admires-n656916

 

[SW VandeCarr]

I admire the guy.
http://www.nbcnews.com/card/gary-johnson-still-cant-come-foreign-leader-he-admires-n656916

Are you sure?

 

[russ_watters]

Are you sure?

I think he (Johnson) was exactly right in that.

 

[gleem]

Well, the headline doesn't quite the match the actual question which was about what foreign leader(s) he admired. I can name a few leaders, but I can't say I admire any.

I think that Johnson's inability to recall a foreign leader who he admires shows more of a lack of ability to think on his feet obviously not good for a politician. In his case he could have said that he didn't particularly admire anyone and maybe rejoined with the question Who do you think I should admire? or why do you think I should admire anybody?

 

[mheslep]

think that Johnson's inability to recall a foreign leader who he admires shows more of a lack of ability to think on his feet obviously not good for a politician...

Its more complicated than remembering a name for a Presidential candidate. Perhaps the name that comes to mind is a leader who arrests his opposition the next day, or kidnaps Americans expats, or persecutes a traditional American allied nation, partners with nations hostile to America, or did great things in office but came to power through murky but nefarious means. People are flawed, so there's always some flawed behaviour. Thus comes the next question, Mr Candidate, are you frivolous in you support? Do you think being President is like being baseball fan? Will you also arrest the opposition? Do you care about the kidnapped Americans? Do you think Admired Leader's Country is better than America? Admired Leader says he favors your opponent, says youre an idiot, shouldn't you stop your campaign?

 

[Student100]

Clinton leaked talking about Bernie supporters.

I don't think it's a fair characterization on her part.
Assuming that these "college educated kids living in their parents basement" are probably smart enough to research the Scandinavia system, and other such rebuttals that easy to come up with.

She also sees herself as a center left to center right candidate in the same audio.

I don't understand where her support is coming from, she was the worst candiate the Democrats could field, as observed by the closeness of this race.

Guess I vote for Johnson.

 

[Astronuc]

It's very disappointing. On paper, he should be great, but there is some screw loose in his head. I'm probably going to choose to assume that it is social anxiety and vote for him anyway.

I'm considering Johnson and Weld, even though I'm expecting one of the two principal candidates to win the nomination in November. And it wouldn't be a wasted vote, since it might just help qualify a third party alternative to the two major parties. I voted to Sanders in the primary, not that I wholly agree with his positions, but as a protest vote.

Hopefully, Johnson will take some time to study up on foreign affairs and world leaders.

The Chicago Tribune endorses Gary Johnson. The conservative paper’s editorial board argued that the Democratic and Republican parties have drifted so far from the United States’ political mainstream and failed to nominate suitable candidates to the top of their tickets.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/right-leaning-newspapers-bail-on-donald-trump-165200193.html

The Arizona Republic broke tradition to endorse the democratic candidate rather than the republican candidate. The paper still supports/endorses other republicans.

 

[gleem]

Trump is under fire concerning leaked 1995 Federal income tax forms showing he took a $915 M loss that could saved him from paying taxes for up to 18 yrs. This of course is legal for valid losses. But does a person commit that order of magnitude of his own money to his own business. One tries to insulate ones personal wealth from any business dealing that could result in a personal liability financial or otherwise. If he is so smart why did he risk his own wealth? He still had equity in the properties and their assets were they liquidated? Can some explain why he would have risked his own money?

On another note Rudy Giuliani mentioned in an interview that Trump made over $600M last year, how does he know this and if he does he probably knows Trump's tax liability. The interviewer completely missed an opportunity to dig a little deeper.