Breaking Down the 2016 POTUS Race Contenders & Issues

In summary, the top contenders for the 2016 US Presidential Election are Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Bernie Sanders. The major issues that are being discussed are the lack of qualifications of the contenders, their stances on jailing all of the other candidates, and the stances of each candidate on various issues.
  • #176
It looks like Sanders is leading in Colorado and Minnesota.
 
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  • #177
russ_watters said:
But increased scrutiny of immigrants from terrorist hotbed countries is prudent IMO.
Agreed. I don't think many people would have any objection to that.

Discussing policies is much easier than discussing rhetoric. Sweeping statements against certain groups are disturbing and worrying. In this particular case I do think that the worries about Trump's statement are warranted.

russ_watters said:
Those probably would have been excessive too, but it should be ok to discuss them without judging someone as crazy or racist for responding excessively to a real threat.
Yes racism is a serious charge and should not be taken lightly. I personally wouldn't call anyone racist just for supporting Trump. I don't think Trump himself is racist.

russ_watters said:
I must acknowledge not seeing any statistics of any kind regarding this and largely basing this on the logic that the further the religion is from Islam the more "wrong", the bigger the threat should be.
The logic is sound and applies to many Salafist groups but not ISIS or Al-Qaeda affiliates. Christians and Jews are among the 'people of the book'. They're offered to pay the Jizzya tax or convert to Islam if they want to preserve their lives. Other non-Muslims (for example Yazidis and Druze) don't get the Jizzya option, they either convert or die. Apostates are the worst, they only get to be killed. As Astronuc pointed out, ISIS considers Shiites and Alawites as well as some Sunnis as apostates that are to be killed immediately. That's the general rule but there have been cases when Christians were killed immediately without being offered to pay the tax. You don't expect consistency from a bunch of murderous psychopaths.

russ_watters said:
The British version looks like dry irony to me. "Somewhat extreme" would be (a self contradiction
Quite.
 
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  • #178
Koch brothers will not use funds to try to block Trump nomination
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-koch-brothers-not-funds-try-block-trump-010111128.html#
The Koch brothers are also smarting from the millions of dollars they pumped into the failed 2012 Republican presidential bids of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, the sources said.

Standing on the sidelines waiting.

Rep. Chris Collins: 'It's Time' For GOP To Unite Behind Trump
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/02/468937608/rep-chris-collins-its-time-for-gop-to-unite-behind-trump

Not so fast!

Rep. Scott Rigell Urges Republicans To Stand Against Donald Trump
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/02/46893...ges-republicans-to-stand-against-donald-trump
 
  • #180
Trump's position on healthcare came out

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/healthcare-reform

7. Remove barriers to entry into free markets for drug providers that offer safe, reliable and cheaper products. Congress will need the courage to step away from the special interests and do what is right for America. Though the pharmaceutical industry is in the private sector, drug companies provide a public service. Allowing consumers access to imported, safe and dependable drugs from overseas will bring more options to consumers.
That should get the lobbyists ire.

Interesting though it is contrary to some of his protectionism talk about other industrues.

Has pharma industry abused monopoly status in US ?
 
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  • #181
jim hardy said:
Interesting though it is contrary to some of his protectionism talk about other industrues.

Has pharma industry abused monopoly status in US ?
There are at least two different matters here. Regarding protectionism, there are trade restrictions such as anti-dumping laws or laws regarding unfair competition regarding commodities and services. Several US steel manufacturers have filed actions against Chinese companies dumping steel on the global market.

In the case of big pharma, the US government does grant a monopoly vis-a-vis patent protection, which grants the inventor, or more often the assignee, exclusive rights to an invention, e.g., a drug or pharmaceutical, so that the inventor or assignee can derive an income or recover investment in the invention. There is certainly a conflict where a pharmaceutical company wants to recover costs quickly by charging a high price while an individual (or government or insurance company) wishes to pay much lower price.

The issue of issue of health is about access to health care and affordability. Is health care a natural right, or is it available to those who can afford it?
 
  • #182
jim hardy said:
Trump's position on healthcare came out

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/healthcare-reform
#3, "Allow individuals to fully deduct health insurance premium payments from their tax returns under the current tax system. " is easily the most important change. The hearhcare market tax distortion, around since WWII, has long been cited by health economists, left and right that should be changed. Several other GOP Pres candidates have addressed it.

Here
...Economists have complained that these tax breaks, especially the larger employer tax deduction, create perverse incentives for everybody involved — employers, workers, doctors, and hospitals.

Here at NBER:
Reforming the Tax Preference for Employer Health Insurance

Here at Brookings:
ABSTRACT: Tax incentives for employer-sponsored insurance and other medical spending cost about $200 billion annually and have pervasive effects on coverage and costs...
 
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  • #183
Astronuc said:
Is health care a natural right, or is it available to those who can afford it?
Rights originally recognized going back to the Magna Carta and as declared in the making of the American state have been tied to freedom of speech and action, freedom from unjust interference by the state. However, in making any service a right, I don't know how a resort to involuntary servitude is avoided for others, thus revoking the original rights.

In the US, the traditional means of helping the least of us, for generations, has to make the basic needs of life affordable, amazingly so compared to past generations. Food, transportation, housing: all of these made possible to those of little means via innovation and competition among providers.

...Newly-elected Virginia Delegate Kathleen Murphy has publicly called for a new state law forcing doctors to accept Medicaid and Medicare patients no matter what.
 
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  • #184
i have an opinion on one facet of "solutions",
Healthcare industry and regulatory capture thereby.

Given that healthcare consumes 4X as much US GDP as does defense

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.TOTL.ZS
healthcare
wbhealthcare.JPG


http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
defense
wbdefense.JPG
and that US healthcare administrative costs are inordinately high
http://www.commonwealthfund.org/pub...rature/2014/sep/hospital-administrative-costs
Key Findings
Administrative costs accounted for 25 percent of hospital spending in the United States, more than twice the proportion seen in Canada and Scotland, which spent the least on administration. Administrative costs were notably higher in the Netherlands (20%) than in other European nation.
In the U.S., the share of costs devoted to administration were higher in for-profit hospitals (27%) than in nonprofit (25%) or public (23%) hospitals. Teaching hospitals had lower-than-average administrative costs (24%), as did rural facilities
U.S. hospital administrative costs rose from 23.5 percent of total hospital costs ($97.8 billion) in 2000 to 25.3 percent ($215.4 billion) in 2011. During that period, the hospital administration share of national gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 0.98 percent to 1.43 percent
Reducing U.S. spending on a per capita basis to Canada’s level would have saved $158 billion in 2011
There was no apparent link between higher administrative costs and better-quality care.
Insurance industry is regulated.
They make sure the regulations are in their interest .
They use both campaign contributions and lobbyists.
insurance industry campaign contributions:
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F09
wbcampaignctbut.JPG


insurance industry lobbying :
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F09
wbinscolobby.JPG


They're joined at the hip to healthcare industry by the symbiotic paper shuffling empires

healthcare industry campaign contributions
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=H
wbhccampaigncont.JPG


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wendell-potter/fixing-medicare-start-by_b_2661132.html said:
It's actually the pharmaceutical industry that spends the most each year to influence our lawmakers, forking over a total of $2.6 billion on lobbying activities from 1998 through 2012, according to OpenSecrets.org. To get some perspective on just how big that number is, consider that oil and gas companies and their trade associations spent $1.4 billion lobbying Congress over the same time frame while the defense and aerospace industry spent $662 million, a fourth of Big Pharma's total.

PBS' Frontline documented how insurance and phamaceutical lobbies extracted from Obama a promise of "no public option in Affordable Care Act" as a condition of his election.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/obamasdeal/

Influence peddling is reported in both left and right leaning media.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-sunlight-foundation/one-year-after-passage-he_b_840324.html
In 2009 and 2010, lobbyists for some 1,251 organizations disclosed lobbying on the[affordable care act] bill, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Those interests included pharmaceutical firms and their trade group, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, insurers like Blue Cross/Blue Shield, the American Hospital Association, the American Medical Association, universities, retailers, restaurant chains, manufacturers, telecommunications firms and labor unions.

That lobbying continues in 2011. More than 180 firms have registered to lobby for new clients on health care issues so far in 2011, 16 of which disclosed the Affordable Care Act as a specific lobbying interest, according to Sunlight's Lobbying Registration Tracker.

......

When Trump proposes to force competition among insurance companies
and make drug companies quit charging US customers many times more than any place else in the world for same pills

it is imminently clear to me why the establishment quakes in their boots -
they think this election is already bought and paid for.

Healthcare campaign contributions, from above link
hcare2cands.JPG
Insurance campaign contributions, from above
ins2cand.JPG
I admit I'm perhaps oversensitive about medical costs because Fair Anne was just prescribed $65,000 worth of a a cancer pill made by Pfizer .
Manufacturer in India won't send a price quote to a US address and it's not yet approved in Canada.
But some of my pills cost 1/10th as much from a pharmacy in Germany.

Regulatory capture by unethical corporations is IMHO this nation's biggest problem.

And that's why when this thread was young i said i wanted an outsider.old jim
 
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  • #185
Donald can’t identify his ‘hand-picked’ faculty
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/trump-u-suit-donald-cant-identify-his-213759095.html
Donald Trump acknowledged in two recent sworn depositions that he did not “hand-pick” any of the instructors at Trump University — one of whom was a convicted felon, according to new court filings in the case.
“Learn from Donald Trump’s handpicked experts how you can profit from the largest real estate liquidation in history,” reads one of the school’s promotional brochures.

Oh, yeah - the Don is perfect for the job of head of state. :rolleyes:

Trump has been vigorously defending the operations of Trump University, describing the lawsuits against the now defunct school as a “minor civil case” that he will win and that were brought by a “sleazebag law firm.”
The Attorney General of NY State is not affiliated with a "sleazebag law firm".
 
  • #186
Astronuc said:
Donald can’t identify his ‘hand-picked’ faculty
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/trump-u-suit-donald-cant-identify-his-213759095.html

Oh, yeah - the Don is perfect for the job of head of state. :rolleyes:.
Seems to be in the same BS ballpark with "If you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away, no matter what." In that sense Trump is qualified for two terms.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ar-if-you-like-your-health-care-plan-keep-it/

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/barack-obama/statements/byruling/pants-fire/

If Trump can find a way to declare he's been under sniper fire in a combat zone, then he'd be qualified to be Secretary of State.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...linton/video-shows-tarmac-welcome-no-snipers/
rulings%2Ftom-pantsonfire.gif
 
  • #187
mheslep said:
"If you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan, period. No one will take it away, no matter what."
If Obama had said that while a senator, he would have disqualified himself as a presidential candidate. Of course, about 262 million folks did get to keep their health insurance, but 4 million lost their coverage. It looks like Congress wasn't careful in the language, and no one asked, "do post-menopausal women and males need obstetrical and maternity care?"

As for Clinton as Secretary of State
. . . even many of her most ardent defenders recognize Hillary Clinton had no signal accomplishment at the State Department to her name, no indelible peace sealed with her handshake, no war averted, no nuclear crisis defused.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ood-secretary-of-state-john-kerry-2016-100766
 
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  • #188
mheslep said:
If Trump can find a way to declare he's been under sniper fire in a combat zone, then he'd be qualified to be Secretary of State.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...linton/video-shows-tarmac-welcome-no-snipers/
[URL]http://static.politifact.com.s3.amazonaws.com/rulings%2Ftom-pantsonfire.gif[/QUOTE][/URL]
My first thought on reading your link is that this was not a lie, rather it was a false memory. Being located in the cross hairs of a high powered rifle is probably every politician's worst, and most constant, nightmare. It is probably true she had been told there had been sniper fire in the area and that rumor made her so paranoid during the landing that running to the car is all she could think about and what she wanted to do. The actual greeting with the kid did not get stored in her memory because her mind was elsewhere; completely taken up by the urge to run to the cars. This more vivid internal scenario is the one she remembered later.

The fact the incident is reported correctly in her memoir suggests she didn't write the memoir; that it was farmed out to a ghostwriter like most political memoirs.

I could be wrong, but false memories happen. It would be strange for someone to risk lying about an incident they knew they had reported differently elsewhere in print.
 
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  • #189
Well, sure I'll grant Clinton a false memory theory in Kosovo, if you'll grant false memory to Trump claiming "hand-picked" faculty.
 
  • #190
mheslep said:
Well, sure I'll grant Clinton a false memory theory in Kosovo, if you'll grant false memory to Trump claiming "hand-picked" faculty.
I think it would be hard to prove Trump has any authentic memories.
 
  • #191
zoobyshoe said:
I think it would be hard to prove Trump has any authentic memories.
Did you mean Trump, or Clinton? Any of Trump's aids being granted immunity?
 
  • #192
Astronuc said:
Of course, about 262 million folks did get to keep their health insurance, but 4 million lost their coverage...
The threat of cancellation was never to the large chunk of the population on Medicare or on employer based plans, but rather to the individual market:

Four sources deeply involved in the Affordable Care Act tell NBC NEWS that 50 to 75 percent of the 14 million consumers who buy their insurance individually can expect to receive a “cancellation” letter or the equivalent over the next year because their existing policies don’t meet the standards mandated by the new health care law.
 
  • #193
mheslep said:
Did you mean Trump, or Clinton? Any of Trump's aids being granted immunity?
I'm confused about your point. There's an issue there, but how is it a memory issue?
 
  • #194
mheslep said:
The threat of cancellation was never to the large chunk of the population on Medicare or on employer based plans, but rather to the individual market:
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, was passed in the senate on December 24, 2009, and passed in the house on March 21, 2010. It was signed into law by President Obama on March 23rd, 2010. How come the DHHS change or issued regulations after the fact. I presume it was allowed in the ACA. Certainly, Obama should have stopped telling people they could keeps their insurance, especially when it became evident that they couldn't.
But the Department of Health and Human Services then wrote regulations that narrowed that provision, by saying that if any part of a policy was significantly changed since that date -- the deductible, co-pay, or benefits, for example -- the policy would not be grandfathered.
The White House does not dispute that many in the individual market will lose their current coverage, but argues they will be offered better coverage in its place, and that many will get tax subsidies that would offset any increased costs.
This doesn't appear to be the case, especially when insurance companies have to add coverage for things folks don't want or need.
 
  • #195
mheslep said:
Well, sure I'll grant Clinton a false memory theory in Kosovo, if you'll grant false memory to Trump claiming "hand-picked" faculty.
I think in Clinton's case, it was a Brian Williams moment. I think Clinton was embellishing her story. I'm not aware she was on any trip in which she and her entourage where under sniper fire. Certainly one has to wonder about the motivation.

On the other hand, I don't think Trump has a false member, but rather the statement about 'hand-picked' faculty seems to be a fraudulent statement. Then the question becomes, did Trump know and authorize the use of a false statement in advertising. That and other matters are at the heart of the suit against Trump University.
 
  • #196
Astronuc said:
How come the DHHS change or issued regulations after the fact. I presume it was allowed in the ACA.
Because the language "the Secretary" (HHS) appears 2529 times in the bill, as in the "The Secretary may develop guidelines ...", or , "as determined by the Secretary..."

The reason for the cancellations was to force a migration to policies that cover more than required like maternity care for males as you say. This migration was required because the policies offered under the subsidized Healthcare.gov also offers more than necessary, and to make them affordable meant having many more people on private un-subsidized plans pay for those services being given away elsewhere. Otherwise, the price for too few people would be too high, more people drop out, and the often repeated "death spiral" occurs. As the sources indicate, this possibility was well known by key developers of the ACA and by those charged with its implementation.

Apparently these efforts have nonetheless been insufficient, as the largest US insurer, United Healthcare, has been losing money on the exchange policies and plans to drop out.
 
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  • #197
zoobyshoe said:
I'm confused about your point. There's an issue there, but how is it a memory issue?
I'm drawing attention to back flips when contrasting Clinton and Trump: Clinton's provably false statement is credited with a theory about memory errors, and Trump receives outright hyperbole ("hard to prove Trump has any authentic memories.")
 
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  • #198
mheslep said:
I'm drawing attention to back flips when contrasting Clinton and Trump: Clinton's provably false statement is credited with a theory about memory errors, and Trump receives outright hyperbole ("hard to prove Trump has any authentic memories.")
When it comes to 'memory issues', Trump merits hyperbole:

Trump claims he saw “thousands” of Islamic celebrants in New Jersey on 9/11. The press has labelled that untrue. They are less unanimous on why he is making the claim. Is it a political lie with racial motives, a simple mistaken memory combined with his strategy of never apologizing, or something more along the lines of crazy?
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/134003...his-empire-with-a-small-loan-from-his-father/

Donald Trump was asked about his father’s arrest last year by the Daily Mailand he vehemently denied the story’s veracity, saying:

He was never arrested. He has nothing to do with this. This never happened. This is nonsense and it never happened. This never happened. Never took place. He was never arrested, never convicted, never even charged. It’s a completely false, ridiculous story. He was never there! It never happened. Never took place.

In fact, his father was there and he was arrested:


Trump claimed he was not aware there illegal immigrants working on his building, but:
The judge found against Trump, his partner, and the contractor, saying they had joined in a “conspiracy.” Stewart found that Trump’s man on the scene, Thomas Macari, “was involved in every aspect of the demolition job.”

“He knew the Polish workers were working ‘off the books,’ that they were doing demolition work, that they were non-union, that they were paid substandard wages with no overtime pay, and that they were paid irregularly if at all,” the judge found.

Stewart suggested that it would have been difficult for anyone not to notice the Polish Brigade.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...s-built-on-undocumented-immigrants-backs.html

There's more examples to cite, but I'm sure you know them already. In summary:

It’s the trope on Trump: He’s authentic, a straight-talker, less scripted than traditional politicians. That’s because Donald Trump doesn’t let facts slow him down. Bending the truth or being unhampered by accuracy is a strategy he has followed for years.

"People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts," Trump wrote in his 1987 best-seller The Art of the Deal. "People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration — and a very effective form of promotion."

That philosophy guided Trump in luxury real estate and reality television. This year he brought it to the world of presidential politics.

Trump has "perfected the outrageous untruth as a campaign tool," said Michael LaBossiere, a philosophy professor at Florida A&M University who studies theories of knowledge. "He makes a clearly false or even absurdly false claim, which draws the attention of the media. He then rides that wave until it comes time to call up another one."

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...lie-year-donald-trump-campaign-misstatements/
 
  • #199
Carson dropped out of the race.

Ted Cruz won Kansas, and apparently was just declared the winner in Maine.
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/5-more-states-taking-turn-2016-white-house-180050792--election.html Apparently someone is reporting that Sanders won Kansas, but there are not votes reported!

Louisiana and Nebraska are voting today for Dem, and Maine will hold their caucus tomorrow, March 6.

Update: Apparently Sanders won Nebraska, and Clinton and Trump won in Louisiana.
http://news.yahoo.com/latest-hit-back-walk-away-choice-trump-rivals-181147066--election.html
 
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  • #200
zoobyshoe said:
When it comes to 'memory issues', Trump merits hyperbole:
I'm aware of Trump's bull. It's common knowledge. But do you imagine that somebody can't quickly fill up pages here with Clinton's bull? I'm not interested in false memory explanations.
 
  • #201
Marco Rubio on why Trump's leading in the primaries: the media is contributing.

...during a Q & A with CNN’s Dana Bash at the Gaylord Hotel in National Harbor, Maryland, he thrilled the crowd with a series of sharp jabs at the Republican frontrunner and the media that covers him

Bash asked the Florida senator why so many conservatives seem to be voting for Trump, who he calls a fake conservative and a con artist. “I’ll tell you one of the reasons why – and I don’t mean to take you on this, but I want to be clear,” Rubio said. “Because I’ve now been sitting here for 5 minutes, and 2 out of the 3 questions have been about Donald Trump –” He tried to go on, but was drowned out by a massive standing ovation – undoubtedly the loudest crowd response any speaker received over the last three days. ...
 
  • #202
mheslep said:
I'm aware of Trump's bull. It's common knowledge. But do you imagine that somebody can't quickly fill up pages here with Clinton's bull?
Clinton's bull is just not in the same league. No one's is. Trump is in a league of his own.
I'm not interested in false memory explanations.
You ought to consider it. Declaring her a deliberate liar, as you did, fails to take the circumstances of the incident into account. If you would like to see politicians reduced to panic, try yelling "Sniper!," at a political rally. People's memories go south when they're scared.

I agree that Trump probably suffers from some false memories, it's not uncommon, but I'm not going to give him a benefit-of-a-doubt pass due to the fact he obviously lies so deliberately and outrageously most of the time. Hence my double standard, or "back flip" as you called it. Conversely, if we were to grant that all his inaccuracies are mere false memories, not deliberate lies, then we might as well admit we're talking about a person suffering from dementia.

Also: Don't get the idea I like Clinton. She has only one advantage over Trump in my mind, which is that she's not Trump. I think it's going to be one of those "Anyone but X" elections for many. In this case, 'anyone but Trump.'
 
  • #203
Harry Truman said , approximately:
'I never gave anybody hell. I gave them the truth and they thought it was hell.'

One man speaks a few truths and it throws RNC's whole self aggrandizing dreamworld into narcisstic rage ?
The price of self delusion is vulnerability to that.

We saw the prelude in their treatment of Sara Palin.

Trump should make a bargain. If they stop telling lies about him he will stop telling the truth about them.
 
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  • #204
zoobyshoe said:
Clinton's bull is just not in the same league.
Most people appear to disagree. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274
Trump and Clinton have the worst scores among top candidates on honesty:
  • Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 61 - 34 percent, her lowest score ever;
  • Trump is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 54 - 38 percent.
The most common word associated with Clinton was "liar"; for Trump, "arrogant"

You ought to consider it. Declaring her a deliberate liar, as you did, fails to take the circumstances of the incident into account. If you would like to see politicians reduced to panic, try yelling "Sniper!," at a political rally. People's memories go south when they're scared.

I'm familiar with the circumstances. Why do you suggest she was scared of snipers on the trip? Because she said was running from snipers?
 
  • #205
jim hardy said:
One man speaks a few truths and it throws RNC's whole self aggrandizing dreamworld into narcisstic rage ?
How about these? Are these truths? Is it narcissistic to get angry about them?

Terrorist families
"...The other thing with the terrorists is you have to take out their families, when you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. They care about their lives, don't kid yourself. When they say they don't care about their lives, you have to take out their families,"

Fox Debate
“...She starts asking me ridiculous questions. You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes. Blood coming out of her wherever,” he said.

Iraq War
...I will tell you. They lied. And they said there were weapons of mass destruction and there were none. And they knew there were none. There were no weapons of mass destruction,”

http://nypost.com/2015/08/08/trump-megyn-kelly-had-blood-coming-out-of-her-wherever/
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/14/donald-trump-bush-lied-people-died.html
 
  • #206
I found the following rather interesting. It's a discussion between On the Media's Brooke Gladstone and FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver.
http://www.onthemedia.org/story/nat...&utm_campaign=daMost&utm_content=damostviewed
Months ago, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver crunched the numbers and found it was extremely unlikely that Trump would become the nominee. He wasn't wrong, and yet here we are. So why is this election so unpredictable? Silver talks to Brooke about why the rules of politics seem to be broken this year, and how electoral predictions are based on a short history. Plus: could the country be due for a political realignment?

Also -
On the Media and Five-Thirty-Eight on Super Tuesday
http://www.onthemedia.org/story/fivethirtyeight-explains-super-tuesday/

It's interesting that one hears a lot about the broken political system, since it appears to have been broken for a long time. Looking back more than 20 years ago:
NEWARK, Aug. 16— Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey announced today that he would not seek re-election next year to a fourth term, depriving the Democratic Party of one of its most respected thinkers at a time when the party's loss of Congress is forcing it to re-examine just what it stands for.

In a speech here, Mr. Bradley gave no reason for his decision, but he left the impression that he had grown weary of working in a political system that he called "broken." He castigated both major parties, accusing them of being more interested in feuding than in addressing the needs of the nation.
From Bradley Says He Won't Seek 4th Term (NY Times, August 17, 1995)
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/08/17/nyregion/bradley-says-he-won-t-seek-4th-term.html

Was there ever a time when it wasn't broken.
Tammany Hall, also known as the Society of St. Tammany, the Sons of St. Tammany, or the Columbian Order, was a New York City political organization founded in 1786 and incorporated on May 12, 1789, as the Tammany Society.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tammany_Hall

I'm reading Doris Kearns Goodwin's book, "The Bully Pulpit: Theodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and the Gold Age of Journalism", Simon & Schuster, NY, 2013. Some of the passages mention Tammany Hall, which was still going strong through the early 1900s. Apparently, the Republican Party had its own spoils and patronage system. I think there are still elements of that even today given the scandals that make the papers occasionally.
 
  • #207
mheslep said:
Most people appear to disagree. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274

The most common word associated with Clinton was "liar"; for Trump, "arrogant"
By saying Trump was in a league of his own I was referring to the quality of his lies, not the quantity. It's the kind of lie he tells that boggles the mind. His logic and debate style reminds me of Charles Manson's. They're both berserkers. And also arrogant.

Why do you suggest she was scared of snipers on the trip? Because she said was running from snipers?
Because she said they were told (I assume by whatever security agency was with them) there had been snipers at that airport at some recent time, and it was Bosnia, after all. She repeated the story about three times before being corrected, and I think there's a strong possibility that is because that is the way she remembers it, having run through internal scenarios where they might have to run to the cars when they landed, scenarios that stuck in her head for being more vivid than what actually ended up happening. Recall that was a lot closer in time to Representative Ryan having been ambushed and killed when departing Jonestown: fresher in everyone's mind. Also a lot closer in time to the Kennedy, Kennedy, King, and Reagan shootings.

The video you posted showing her landing with a camera crew reinforces my theory: who would deliberately lie about an incident knowing every detail of it had been filmed by a major U.S. TV network?
 
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  • #208
Manson? Another form of reductio ad hitlerum.
 
  • #209
mheslep said:
Manson? Another form of reductio ad hitlerum.
I thought it was a reducio ad Trumpum. But, maybe Manson doesn't deserve that.

More seriously and without sarcasm, I am getting very alarmed at the people who don't see all the clear warning signs of a very destructive leader when they look at Trump. He already has a whole country we used to get along fine with pissed off at him.
http://sierrafoothillsreport.com/2015/07/17/trump-pinatas-a-hit-in-mexico-come-to-sacramento/
 
  • #210
Meanwhile - Clinton: Email scandal "moving toward a resolution"
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-says-email-scandal-moving-toward-a-resolution/
Asked by moderator John Dickerson about Bryan Pagliano, the former State Department staffer who helped set up her private email server and was granted immunity by the Federal Bureau of Investigation to give an interview, Clinton said she's "delighted" he's cooperating in the investigation. Questions about whether or not anyone will be indicted in the situation are overblown, she said.

"There is no basis for that. It's a security review," she said. "I'm delighted that he has agreed to cooperate, as everyone else has. And I think that we'll be moving toward a resolution of this."

Looks like Sanders won in Maine, but he gets 15 delegates to Clinton's 7.
 

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