- #71
joema
- 106
- 3
I didn't totally ignore it -- I factored in a factor of two improvement.Ivan Seeking said:Well, we can guess at numbers all day, but you are ignoring the factor of three for the increased wind velocity, for a given weight to power expectation at high atltudes..
I agree any reasonable alternative energy source should be closely examined. However unless the technology is economically scalable to a gigantic industrial level within a meaningful timeframe, it will make no real difference. E.g, does hydrogen via solar or wind work? yes. Can you scale it to provide a large % of transportation energy consumption within two decades. No -- totally impossible. If Ralph Nader was absolute dictator over the entire globe it wouldn't be possible.
There are two discrete energy problems:
(1) Transportation energy (primarily currently petroleum). This will be significantly exhausted within 20 yrs, and possibly peak oil will hit within 10 yrs, if not sooner. This is by far the most time critical need. Working on a utility energy solution won't address this more immediate problem.
(2) Utility/industrial/residential energy (power, heating, etc). This comprises about 75% of all energy consumption, but there's sufficient conventional sources for at least 100 years. It may not be clean or desirable, but at least the lights won't go out. Much sooner transportation could grind to a stop, or oil prices disrupt world economy beyond anything yet seen.
If FEGs can be made to work -- fine, use them. Unfortunately too little is known about the viability, especially if used on a huge scale.
I mentioned biodiesel from algae mainly because it's one of the few solutions that (1) uses the existing distribution infrastructure (2) uses existing vehicle/engine technology, (3) solves most of the emission problems, inc'l CO2, and (4) fits within available real estate. Yes there are still unknowns that could preclude its use, but those are UNKNOWNS. By contrast most other alternative technologies have KNOWN problems (even at this early stage) limiting their huge industrial deployment.
We often hear of promising new energy sources. However it's important to separate what's technically feasible on a small scale, vs what can be deployed on the required vast industrial scale. We can't say "somebody will figure that part out" -- that IS a limiting factor even more than the technology itself.