COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[atyy]

Also, hoarders are stupid. Do they not realize that by hoarding and leaving others without sanitation products that those people might get infected more easily and spread it...and so on and so forth. And that having LOTS of infected people around hoarders, in turn, would get hoarders infected more easily.

Well, hopefully soap and clean water are still available where you are? One can do excellent sanitzing with these simple elements (yes, I know they not available in some countries, nor to homeless poeple in developed countries).

And moisturizer :)

 

[Keith_McClary]

who wants to make some recommendations?

Corey Doctorow has “The Masque of the Red Death” podcast (2 hours) for free.
https://craphound.com/podcast/2020/03/13/the-masque-of-the-red-death/

My novella “The Masque of the Red Death” is a tribute to Poe; it’s from my book Radicalized. It’s the story of a plute who brings his pals to his luxury bunker during civlizational collapse in the expectation of emerging once others have rebuilt.
...
And naturally – for anyone who’s read Poe – it doesn’t work out for them.

 

[mfb]

Bayes Theorem and testing:

There has been a cry on this thread for "more tests!". Since there is no specific treatment for coronavirus, there is no benefit to individuals to get tested. It is purely an epidemiological tool. Suppose instead of just testing people who we have reason to be more likely to be exposed (a "Bayesean prior") we had the ability to test all 320M people in the US. Further suppose the prevalence is 10x higher than we think it is, and that the test is 99% accurate (the upper end of a home pregnancy test). What fraction of people who test positive actually have coronavirius?

Crunching the numbers, 0.69%. 99.3% of those who test positive actually don't have it, and any studies trying to track where people are coming and going will be overwhelmed by noise.

OK, so how many people will need to be infected for the sample of positive testees to be half infected and half healthy? It would have to be 1400x larger than what we think it is.

You know how misleading this calculation is. With an increase of testing capability the tests would first focus on sick people and the close contacts of infected people - where many people who test positive will be actually positive. You also test twice to reduce the false positive rate and the false negative rate (if the tests differ, test more, but that's a small fraction of people). Isolating these people helps other people a lot.

With the ability to test everyone you would get way more false positives, but if you can test everyone then you can spend more time on better tests for the 1% who test positive. Yes, it leads to millions of people in uncertainty for a while. Which is different from the current situation in what exactly? You also end up having some people in quarantine for a while who are not infected. But that's still better than a million deaths or whatever the US will end up if this keeps spreading like a wildfire.

South Korea got their outbreak largely under control because they tested so many. From their peak of over 1000 they are down to under 100 new cases per day, at a constant ~12,000 tests per day. Singapore avoided large outbreaks altogether.

Yes, I don't know why it was not clickable.

No https:// and no URL tags - just something with dots and slashes inside doesn't have to be a link.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Hoarders at their worst:

On March 1, the day after the first Coronavirus death in the United States was announced, brothers Matt and Noah Colvin set out in a silver S.U.V. to pick up some hand sanitizer. Driving around Chattanooga, Tenn., they hit a Dollar Tree, then a Walmart, a Staples and a Home Depot. At each store, they cleaned out the shelves.

Over the next three days, Noah Colvin took a 1,300-mile road trip across Tennessee and into Kentucky, filling a U-Haul truck with thousands of bottles of hand sanitizer and thousands of packs of antibacterial wipes, mostly from “little hole-in-the-wall dollar stores in the backwoods,” his brother said. “The major metro areas were cleaned out.”

Matt Colvin stayed home near Chattanooga, preparing for pallets of even more wipes and sanitizer he had ordered, and starting to list them on Amazon. Mr. Colvin said he had posted 300 bottles of hand sanitizer and immediately sold them all for between $8 and $70 each, multiples higher than what he had bought them for. To him, “it was crazy money.” To many others, it was profiteering from a pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

 

[Janus]

I resorted to calling around before going out the last few days. Saves me time/energy of doing a drop-in, luck of the draw visit.

I've said it before, but Dollar Tree has been gold on hand sanitizer, alcohol wipes (LOTS when I left the store), and bleach (granted, it was the weirdest brands I'd ever heard of...not Chlorox, but very weird names).

You can ask your local stores when their "trucks come in."

Costco's new shipment days can be gold too. They had lots of alcohols on shipment day. Perhaps the membership paywall blocks out your everyday shopper just enough to create some "extras" on the shelves.

So, yeah, for me it's Costco + Dollar Tree (perhaps they have the opposite effect as Costco - their no name brands maybe lead people to go get the brand named stuff (Purell and Germ X) at Target, etc.).

With me, it was a Winco, and during the course of my normal weekly shopping. It was more of a "If they have them, I'll get them" than making a special trip for them.

 

[chirhone]

Hey, you're dealing with a bunch of people who conclude no college degree is needed for success on the unique basis that Bill Gates ( millionaire dad/money to fall back on) and Jack Ma ( legit case) made it big, so maybe not too much of a leap.

50% of population earns $1 to $7 a day. Some earns -$1 to -$7. These latter are the robbers, criminals. They commit criimes so they can end up in jail so they have something to eat.

Also there is the joke that while many are into "panic buying". Some people are only in panic. No buying because no money to buy anything.

This is why I'm also buying survival tools like flashlight, hammers, nails to secure windows because in days ahead, It might become like Purge. Hence I'm thinking what kinds of weaponry to have too.

However, there are many rich people too here. By the way, our Lockdown in first day has more leniency in that they still allowed max exodus out of the Lockdown zone. So today many are still running. Strict border control may occur tomorrow after these people have run away to other provinces.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/14/20/police-public-can-expect-softer-approach-as-metro-quarantine-begins

 

[WWGD]

Hoarders at their worst:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

That's pretty repulsive.

 

[WWGD]

50% of population earns $1 to $7 a day. Some earns -$1 to -$7. These latter are the robbers, criminals. They commit criimes so they can end up in jail so they have something to eat.

Also there is the joke that while many are into "panic buying". Some people are only in panic. No buying because no money to buy anything.

This is why I'm also buying survival tools like flashlight, hammers, nails to secure windows because in days ahead, It might become like Purge. Hence I'm thinking what kinds of weaponry to have too.

However, there are many rich people too here. By the way, our Lockdown in first day has more leniency in that they still allowed max exodus out of the Lockdown zone. So today many are still running. Strict border control may occur tomorrow after these people have run away to other provinces.

Yes, apologies for complaining about 1st world problems. Hope things will get better there.

 

[russ_watters]

The grid may fail or not work fully with failing power. Perishables may be good to eat right away while everything works and save non-perishables for later in case the grid fails or works only partially. Edit: There may end up being a shortage of support workers due to being sick or general quarantine.

C'mon -- some sanity, please! That sort of outcome would require infection rates orders of magnitude beyond what is realistically possible. Electricity going out (in developed countries) would be about the last thing to happen before total societal collapse.

Did someone say "panic" isn't a real thing earlier...?

 

[russ_watters]

The local grocery store had its shelves denuded of diet soda, chips, pretzels and cookies. As well as toilet paper, light bulbs, and electrical extension cords.

I have a two-week supply of Cool Ranch Doritos, beer and steak, so I'm all good.

 

[WWGD]

I have a two-week supply of Cool Ranch Doritos, beer and steak, so I'm all good.

Not quite. Have a full month of some Netflix series, Sunday FTs in reserve ? ;).

 

[chirhone]

Yes, apologies for complaining about 1st world problems. Hope things will get better there.

Too bad I wasn't able to buy any N95 at amazon before they ran out of stock. On January 20, 2020,. I started this thread at PF:

https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...you-inhale-the-exhaled-carbon-dioxide.983397/

At that time, there was no 3 cases of positives in the US and no positive in my country. And the reason it was closed was this:

"Addendum: as 24/01/2020 12:15 MST there is NO reported Wuhan Coronavirus in Manila - the OP's home. This is why we shut the thread."

Now we have 111 positives and 8 deaths. So maybe it can be reopened?

 

[mfb]

Hoarders at their worst:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

Mr. Colvin is sitting on 17,700 bottles of the stuff with little idea where to sell them.

I mean... he could sell them for fair prices, or donate them to nearby hospitals and other places that need them.

 

[wukunlin]

Kind of interesting to see the difference between the types of food hoarded in different places. In China, it was mostly staple food (flour, rice, potatos etc) and relatively lasting vegetables like carrots. In the USA I see mostly canned food and snacks on people's lists.

 

[WWGD]

Too bad I wasn't able to buy any N95 at amazon before they ran out of stock. On January 20, 2020,. I started this thread at PF:

https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...you-inhale-the-exhaled-carbon-dioxide.983397/

At that time, there was no 3 cases of positives in the US and no positive in my country. And the reason it was closed was this:

"Addendum: as 24/01/2020 12:15 MST there is NO reported Wuhan Coronavirus in Manila - the OP's home. This is why we shut the thread."

Now we have 111 positives and 8 deaths. So maybe it can be reopened?

Ask one of the mods here, I have no idea.

 

[kyphysics]

I have a two-week supply of Cool Ranch Doritos, beer and steak, so I'm all good.

YOu're also young! Not AT ALL saying the young cannot die. The Chinese doctor who was considered a hero for exposing this to the world, before he succumbed, looked pretty young in his pictures.

Still, most young people have recovered fine. It's the old and those with weak immune systems that have fallen away. Keep in mind that even if you don't die, as the article I posted earlier said, you can still have damaged organs (lungs, in particular).

Best to keep up a good immune system, social distance yourself, and be careful so as to NOT GET COVID19 to begin with. I'm young, but would ratehr just NOT GET IT at all. Taking the precautions I need (although, NOT hoarding).

 

[kyphysics]

I mean... he could sell them for fair prices, or donate them to nearby hospitals and other places that need them.

If these hoarding twerps are preventing like the elderly from getting these supplies, I think they ought to be thrown in jail.

 

[kyphysics]

Kind of interesting to see the difference between the types of food hoarded in different places. In China, it was mostly staple food (flour, rice, potatos etc) and relatively lasting vegetables like carrots. In the USA I see mostly canned food and snacks on people's lists.

Conjecture:

a.) our citizens are dumb
b.) our citizens are relatively more wealthy (and the most obese) and have lots of healthy foods stored away already

My parents actually have a giant freezer in their garage. Their neighbors have TWO fridges in the garage, in addition to the home. Some people (and, no, my parents aren't "rich") might be already good to go with the regular health food stuff. If I had to guess, it's more a.) than b.), however.

I kept thinking of getting FIBER in my foods. Gotta be able to facilitate ...you know...

 

[Vanadium 50]

You know how misleading this calculation is

No, I don't.

With an increase of testing capability the tests would first focus on sick people and the close contacts of infected people - where many people who test positive will be actually positive.

Focusing on the sick people doesn't tell us anything - we know they're sick. Focusing on high-risk people would tell us something. Which is kind of my point: blanket testing is not helpful. If you want to test high-risk people, having 300 thousand kits (roughly what's available) makes more sense than 300 million.

You also test twice to reduce the false positive rate and the false negative rate

As I understand it, the tests give the same result every time. If it's a false negative or false positive, you get the same false negative or false positive next time.

The most misleading thing I said was the assumption of 99% accuracy. Tests are nowhere near this accurate.

 

[wukunlin]

As I understand it, the tests give the same result every time. If it's a false negative or false positive, you get the same false negative or false positive next time.

Not sure if still relavant, but in China in Feb there were a lot of false negatives that were eventually tested positive when symtoms persisted. It was attributed to how the medical precedure was, at the time, unclear at where exactly to take the swab ("somewhere inside the nostril"), and many people were swabbed in the wrong places.

 

[russ_watters]

Something I'm not seeing much of is how people in the gig economy (I worked a gig economy job part-time and so does another family member of mine) would benefit from any government relief programs.

If there is sick leave, an Uber driver, for example, would not qualify as an independent contractor. Similarly, unemployment would not apply to ICs.

By some professional economist metrics, a full 25% of all American workers are gig economy workers:
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...economy-us-trump-uber-california-robert-reich

This is at best highly misleading and at worst intentionally deceitful by the writers (data/claim originates from a Gallup poll, so that's interesting...). I'm leaning toward the latter...

The US has about 157 million employed people. Of them, 83% are employed full time and 17% part time.

At best, the data for "gig workers" includes anyone on contract, temporary work, and doing a secondary job or side-hustle. Gallup claims up to 36% are "gig workers", but for a start 20% are relatively normal full-time workers. My first 6 years of employment as an engineer were as a contract employee for a tiny engineering firm (4-9 employees while I was there). It would never had occurred to me to consider that a "gig".

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...economy-us-trump-uber-california-robert-reich

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/conemp.nr0.htm
https://www.smallbizlabs.com/2018/08/gallup-says-36-of-us-workers-are-in-the-gig-economy.html

 

[russ_watters]

No, I don't.

There's an additional problem with over-testing you didn't mention: if you test someone who isn't sick today they may yet get sick a week or a month from now. So mass-testing of people who do not have a known risk doesn't actually change the need to test at-risk people. It's just an extra layer of testing that doesn't help or at worst creates complacency ("Oh, I was tested 2 weeks ago, I'm fine").

I'll say again: it is clear the FDA bungled the test (they actually sent out a test that doesn't work), but this idea that seems to be out there that "anyone who wants a test should be able to get one" isn't smart either.

 

[russ_watters]

Too bad I wasn't able to buy any N95 at amazon before they ran out of stock. On January 20, 2020,. I started this thread at PF:

https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...you-inhale-the-exhaled-carbon-dioxide.983397/

At that time, there was no 3 cases of positives in the US and no positive in my country. And the reason it was closed was this:

"Addendum: as 24/01/2020 12:15 MST there is NO reported Wuhan Coronavirus in Manila - the OP's home. This is why we shut the thread."

Now we have 111 positives and 8 deaths. So maybe it can be reopened?

The addendum was confusingly put, but no, the thread was originally closed because you were overreacting and posting nonsense, and it will stay locked.

 

[bhobba]

There are going to be a lot of people ending up throwing out a lot of food when it goes bad before they can eat it.

Same here, although I tend to eat at my local Sizzlers these days - they are still going. To make matters worse I just read where they are going to stop emptying garbage bins - isn't sanitation a factor here

Methinks a lot of knee jerk reactions going on here and not much detailed planning - could be wrong - just a hypothesis.

Thanks
Bill

 

[russ_watters]

To make matters worse I just read where they are going to stop emptying garbage bins - isn't sanitation a factor here

Where did you read that, it sounds ridiculous.

[People in general] Please, particularly when it comes to significant claims, please provide a reliable source. I know this is the General Discussion section, but we still have quality standards and this issue is primed for hysteria.

 

[Jarvis323]

Hence "no benefits to individuals".

However, even then it's marginal. Testing sick people doesn't help them, since the action is the same. It does help monitor the spread of the disease, so it's not crazy to test sick people, which is what is happening. As I pointed out in my message above, testing healthy people is pointless at the moment - any reasonable test error rate is much higher than the disease prevalence, so you're measuring noise. The only people whom it makes sense to test are people in high-risk groups who are not presenting, and I understand that's starting. An example would be people leaving cruise ships with infected passengers. Those people are being quarantined anyway.

The guidelines for testing are to do multiple tests on consecutive days, which should reduce the noise. I believe testing early on would have made a huge difference. But at this point, there will be little hope for testing to catch up and keep pace with the spread. In other words, there will be more new cases per day than the number of tests we can do that day, and the amount of people we can quarantine will be minuscule compared with those already out there walking around infecting other people. We're now at the point where you need to just tell everyone to isolate as much as possible. Basically, the US government failed drastically, and it's too late now to correct those mistakes.

I can think of some benefits to individuals though. Currently I am in self isolation due to Coronavirus symptoms. It's quite long that I need to self isolate compared to if I had a cold or the flu. If I were able to be tested, then I could confidently end my self isolation and go to work. I could also go and help my neighbor or grandmother.

 

[russ_watters]

Currently I am in self isolation due to Coronavirus symptoms. It's quite long that I need to self isolate compared to if I had a cold or the flu. If I were able to be tested, then I could confidently end my self isolation and go to work.

I hope you get better...have you talked to a doctor/hospital about getting tested? What did they say?

 

[kyphysics]

The guidelines for testing are to do multiple tests on consecutive days, which should reduce the noise. I believe testing early on would have made a huge difference. But at this point, there will be little hope for testing to catch up and keep pace with the spread. In other words, there will be more new cases per day than the number of tests we can do that day, and the amount of people we can quarantine will be minuscule compared with those already out there walking around infecting other people. We're now at the point where you need to just tell everyone to isolate as much as possible. Basically, the US government failed drastically, and it's too late now to correct those mistakes.

Are you sure it's too late?

I have read that just as case growth spreads exponentially, prevention also impacts the curve exponentially.

Do we really have so many people infected already (3-15-2020) that it's hopeless?

 

[wukunlin]

My parents actually have a giant freezer in their garage. Their neighbors have TWO fridges in the garage, in addition to the home. Some people (and, no, my parents aren't "rich") might be already good to go with the regular health food stuff.

I kept thinking of getting FIBER in my foods. Gotta be able to facilitate ...you know...

Ah I see. That is similar to what we had back in New Zealand. I thought that has to do with the density of supermarkets. In New Zealand, we would be lucky if there is a supermarker within walking distance. In China, there is a store selling fresh produce every second street.

 

[bhobba]

Where did you read that, it sounds ridiculous.

March 15 edition of our main paper the Courier Mail under the heading 'Bins unemptied, public transport cut back in council crisis plan'

There is an out though - in the main text they use the word - potentially. Headline grabbing? Where I live the state government can override local government, so I think in this case its unlikely to come to pass.

Yes you are right - I should have voiced that IMHO its unlikely to happen - need to watch that. But still even considering it is a concern.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Jarvis323]

I hope you get better...have you talked to a doctor/hospital about getting tested? What did they say?

I didn't meet the criteria for testing because I didn't have trouble breathing and I had no contact with anyone known to be infected. My symptoms were mild diarrhea at first, a slowly building fever (over a few days), then a mild sore throat, high fever (for 2 days), body aches, and headache. After that, just a lingering off and on mild throat and lung feeling (as if I had breathed in dust, and on the verge of getting a sore throat). I didn't have a cough the whole time though.

I had gone out to stock up on food only a few days before this started, so I've been able to stay home the entire time. I am hoping to get a test when the new web based+drive through system is operational.

 

[Jarvis323]

Are you sure it's too late?

I have read that just as case growth spreads exponentially, prevention also impacts the curve exponentially.

Do we really have so many people infected already (3-15-2020) that it's hopeless?

I shouldn't have said that I guess. I don't think we should give up with testing+quarantine. But the effectiveness of testing+quarantine is diminished by now due to community spread.

 

[kyphysics]

I didn't meet the criteria for testing because I didn't have trouble breathing and I had no contact with anyone known to be infected. My symptoms were mild diarrhea at first, a slowly building fever (over a few days), then a mild sore throat, high fever (for 2 days), body aches, and headache. After that, just a lingering off and on mild throat and lung feeling (as if I had breathed in dust, and on the verge of getting a sore throat). I didn't have a cough the whole time though.

I had gone out to stock up on food only a few days before this started, so I've been able to stay home the entire time. I am hoping to get a test when the new web based+drive through system is operational.

If it gets any worse, maybe go see a doctor anyways just for whatever condition you DO have.

That's my plan. I, like you, have had some of the symptoms, but not all. Hoping you get better soon and also just take seriously seeing the doctor if things don't feel right. Better to spend $100 vs. $10,000 later.

I have to take heed of that advice myself! I've arguably been too cavalier with things.

 

[bhobba]

They have advised people to keep emergency supplies, just in case. Obviously not too many people paid any attention. (If they had, they wouldn't be panic buying now. )
And even if we accept the need to build a food stockpile, I'm still questioning some people's buying choices.

Yes they advised that quite a while ago now. Personally I just got a few more packets of those individual mixed frozen vegetables and some steak. Human psychology is a strange thing.

Thanks
Bill

 

[kyphysics]

Another problem with panic buying is it is the opposite of social distancing. Massive crowds at grocery stores spreads the virus more easily.