COVID-19 Coronavirus Containment Efforts

[anorlunda]

Although I don't remember taking advantage of it, I seem to recall that credit card, mortgage, and auto-loan companies I dealt with offered payment "holidays". Basically, they offered to let me skip an entire months payment, charge me only interest, and I would have ended up paying very little "noticeable" extra in the future.

True, it is the option of the lender. I was just trying to describe what the word"forebearance" normally means AFAIK.

It’s important to note that mortgage forbearance is not mortgage forgiveness, meaning you still have to pay back what you owe.

“Be aware, however, that you will need to repay the amount that was reduced or suspended, either as a lump sum or by adding to your normal monthly payment,” says Leslie Tayne, founder and attorney at Tayne Law Group.

I think it would be wise for anyone to contact their own lender before withholding payments to avoid nasty surprises. Best to get their policy in writing if possible. IMO, if you can afford it, consult with your own attorney.

 

[PeroK]

That would be me. And probably you. And anyone else who has money in the bank. If you're a saver, you are loaning to borrowers. The bank is just an intermediary.

If "furloughed Joe" can't make his mortgage, it comes out of "sweet old Granny's" savings.

Then again, furloughed Joe is paying for Granny's pension through his taxes. The US may be different in this respect, but in the UK the lives, pensions and healthcare of the older generation is dependent on the taxes of those of working age.

Each country will have to work this out for itself. I'm sort of optimistic that in western Europe at least we'll realize that we are all in this together. That doesn't mean that it won't be bad, but I have some hope that it won't be worse than it needs to be.

 

[russ_watters]

Then again, furloughed Joe is paying for Granny's pension through his taxes. The US may be different in this respect, but in the UK the lives, pensions and healthcare of the older generation is dependent on the taxes of those of working age.

...but only if he's working. Yes, it's the same in the US. For now, with furloughed Joe out of work, the government is paying both of them by taking on trillions of dollars in debt (not the $2T stimulus bill -- that's separate/additional trillions). The Great Recession added something like $5T to the national debt.

 

[PeroK]

...but only if he's working. Yes, it's the same in the US. For now, with furloughed Joe out of work, the government is paying both of them by taking on trillions of dollars in debt (not the $2T stimulus bill -- that's separate/additional trillions). The Great Recession added something like $5T to the national debt.

If I'm honest I have absolutely no idea what might come of all this. My natural inclination is to think we are all doomed, but it might be like a "near-death" experience for the human race and we emerge with a new perspective on life, wealth and the world we inhabit. We might even do something about climate change out of this!

 

[Astronuc]

COVID-19 may have peaked in China, possibly in S. Korea and few other countries. It has yet to peak in the US and parts of Europe. In one of my previous posts, I linked to one model that peaks in mid-April in the US, but that makes assumptions about current cases and deaths, and takes into account various measures, e.g., stay-at-home and social/physical distancing/isolation. Only 21 of 50 states have adopted stay-at-home, and many only in the last week or so. Let's see where we are in 1 week (7 days).

The model was predicting 1542 (1462-1629) by today, but Coronavirus Dashboard reports 1701 deaths in the US as of today; Covidtracking.com (3/27 20:49 ET) reports 1530 deaths (numbers subject to change). I hope we don't see 7000 deaths.

Back on March 27, a week ago, one model was predicting about 7000 deaths as of yesterday. The IHME model (http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) was fairly accurate unfortunately. The model predicts a cumulative mortality of 19946 (16050-23361) as of next Friday, April 10.

Contributing to the spread of infections are large gatherings of people, e.g., which produce so-called 'super-spreading events', in which people congregate in packed places. It only takes one person socializing to spread the virus.

Following a funeral on Feb 29, in Albany, Ga, dozes are ill, 24 deaths have been reported and another 6 deaths under investigation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html

The night of the funeral, a 67-year-old man who had come to Albany to attend was admitted to Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital, complaining of shortness of breath, Mr. Steiner said.

The man had chronic lung disease, and no history of travel that would suggest exposure to the coronavirus, and he was not put in isolation, Mr. Steiner said. Staff members figured that he had just run out of oxygen.

The man spent the next week in the hospital, attended by at least 50 employees, then was transferred on March 7 back to the Atlanta area, where he was tested for the coronavirus. Not until March 10 did the Albany hospital learn he had tested positive, Mr. Steiner said. He died on March 12, the state’s first Coronavirus death.

It is not known if others traveling to Albany from outside were ill.

In Idaho, a gathering of a ski club with members from all over the US has resulted in 126 being ill with 20 testing positive for COVID-19, eight are hospitalized with 3 in ICU, and 2 have died.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news...e-of-the-highest-covid-19-rates-in-the-nation

On Friday, March 6th, DJ Jazzy Jeff was spinning records for a packed house at Whiskey Jacques bar, in Ketchum, Idaho. The party capped a week of festivities in Ketchum and the neighboring Sun Valley for the annual [event] . . . .

. . . On March 30th, DJ Jazzy Jeff announced that he was suffering from pneumonia and associated Coronavirus symptoms. In the days since, two longtime N.B.S. members, Nathaniel Jackson, of Pasadena, and Charles Jackson, of Los Angeles, who shared a room while in Sun Valley, have died of the illness.

Age Range Deaths
0 to 9       0
10 to 19     2
20 to 29    22
30 to 39    56
40 to 49   158
50 to 59   377
60 to 69   663
70 to 79   942
80 to 89   918
90 & older 405
unknown      2

Total 3565 as of April 3, 2020

 

[gleem]

If I'm honest I have absolutely no idea what might come of all this. My natural inclination is to think we are all doomed, but it might be like a "near-death" experience for the human race and we emerge with a new perspective on life, wealth and the world we inhabit. We might even do something about climate change out of this!

Perhaps we might be a bit more prepared for another pandemic. Addressing climate change has always been a threat to the economy. With this economic setback, there will be such a focus on accelerating the economic growth that it will probably negate years any progress on climate change.

 

[bhobba]

COVID-19 now reached Falklands. 1 case now reported. Oh dear! One would think islands safe as there's more sheep there than humans.

Looks like that 1 suspected case I mentioned in another post returned positive.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

On one side we have millions of deaths plus some unclear but still huge economic damage.
On the other side we have ... millions of additional people needing social security for a while? Yeah, we won't have a good estimate for how many and for how long. But it's a really easy decision. So easy that it's made everywhere.

Right now, at least here in Aus, but I think just about everywhere else, they just do it and say we will sort out the economics of it later. For example putting everyone that comes into Australia into a hotel for two weeks the government pays the bill at the moment. After this is over it has been stated the people concerned may indeed have to pay the cost - but far more important things occupy the government right now - as it should. I am still trying to get my head around the complaints of some of the people put up in those hotels. Some are valid and very important eg they have tons of sugary stuff like chock chip cookies all over their suite and they have diabeties, plus no diabetic options on their menu. But others, like I expected better accomodation, you just shake your head at and say - are you serious - these are 4-5 star hotels you are complaining about.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Perhaps we might be a bit more prepared for another pandemic. Addressing climate change has always been a threat to the economy. With this economic setback, there will be such a focus on accelerating the economic growth that it will probably negate years any progress on climate change.

Not necessarily. Have a read of what Bjorn Lomborg writes - you may or may not agree with it but it presents a 'different' way of handling the issue. If it means anything Freeman Dyson is a proponent of his ideas - which is why I read him.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

My natural inclination is to think we are all doomed, but it might be like a "near-death" experience for the human race and we emerge with a new perspective on life, wealth and the world we inhabit.

The big positive out of all of this is we do have very low interest rates so 'borrowing' the incredibly large amounts being spent may not be as bad a first thought. At least that was the the thought of a financial expert discussing it. Then there is the good old standby of 'quantitative easing' ie simply printing more money.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Keith_McClary]

Bjorn Lomborg

RealClimate is not impressed with him.

 

[bhobba]

RealClimate is not impressed with him.

He is controversial all right. So read him, those that 'are impressed' with him, and those that are not, then make up your own mind.

If you want to discuss him a new thread would be required - it would be way off topic here.

But, as an Australian, I must mention something - Australia known for it's contradictory position on climate change - is not how I perceive the debate over here. It's robust all right, but political realties mean if you are looking for a cohesive policy on it you are out of luck - as it is in many areas such as superannuation policy.

Thanks
Bill

 

[mfb]

@russ_watters: You treat money as if it would be the ultimate goal of everything. It isn't. You can bring back money - and first world countries have more than enough wealth to have everyone keep a reasonable living standard while the economy is restarting. You can bring back economic growth. You can't bring back dead people.
You also keep ignoring the massive impact an unstopped pandemic would have on the economy. It's not like we have a choice "economy or people". The economy will see a recession either way, and no one knows reliably how much in any scenario. But we do know that an unstopped pandemic will kill many people while a stopped pandemic will have a very limited death toll.

scaring everyone with unrealistic death predictions

Unrealistic according to whom?
You call predictions for an unstopped pandemic unrealistic because people will take efforts to stop it, and use that to argue against taking efforts to stop this.

We had the discussion about listening to experts already.

Well that isn't true. The containment efforts have been very uneven. Here's what a Swedish immunologist has to say about the lack of a lockdown there: "The government thinks they can’t stop it, so they’ve decided to let people die."
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/02/sweden-not-lockdown-12497681/?ito=cbshare

They already have implemented measures that slow the spread. And it's quite likely that they'll add more.

Addressing climate change has always been a threat to the economy.

Not addressing it is the even bigger threat to the economy, just with some delay.

----

For First Time Since Outbreak Began, Use Of ICU Beds In Italy Has Dropped

New cases stay below the peak, new deaths decrease slowly.

...

 

[bhobba]

You can't bring back dead people.

I am not aware of the policies of any first world country that does not put that first and foremost. Don't worry about spending money now seems the basic principle. It doesn't matter how much you spend IMHO we will figure out how to manage it later. Here in Aus we are spending billions to ensure people will get through this and other things like landlords can't evict tenants during this time. There is of course debate on if more or less should be spent, and other issues, but I can't recall anyone arguing against the principle.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

The following is a very poignant lesson in the tragic consequences of bureaucratic incompetence and buck passing - it's the story of the cruise ship the Ruby Princess. I wish I could give a link to the full article but it is behind a paywall.

The cruise ship, the Ruby Princess, returned to Sydney from a cruise around New Zealand. I will give a precis from there.

At 1am on Thursday, March 19, the ship pulled quietly into Circular Quay. Things had changed in Australia in the 11 days the ship had been away. Social distancing, requiring everyone to stay 1.5m away from each other in public, wouldn’t be announced for another 24 hours, but everyone arriving from overseas had to self-quarantine in their home or hotel room. They were allowed to board planes to get home if they lived interstate and overseas.

The vessel declared 128 persons were ill in the previous 14 days. The symptoms declared by the vessel include 24 persons with temperature over 38 degrees Celsius, six persons with muscle aches, diarrhoea, severe headaches or vomiting. Some of these people, we now know, had coronavirus.

Reminding the ship about the new self-isolation rules, NSW Health told the Ruby Princess: “You are free to disembark tomorrow.’’

One of them, a woman in her 70s, was so ill she was taken off the ship on a stretcher at 2.30am and taken directly to hospital. She died a week later in Sydney’s RPA Hospital from coronavirus.

At 6.10am that day, six Border Force officers and four Department of Agriculture officers boarded the vessel for routine checks. The vessel’s agent told the surprised Border Force officers there were a number of passengers isolated in their cabins. Agriculture officers, with responsibility for the Biosecurity Act, told their Border Force colleagues they are aware NSW Health has rated the vessel low-risk and health officials would not be attending.

At 5.07pm, NSW Health advised the Ruby Princess that: “the New South Wales Health panel has assessed the Ruby Princess as not requiring an on-board health assessment in Sydney.’’ NSW Health also asked the ship send the 15 ‘flu' samples to a lab for COVID-19 testing. Who told what to who will now be the subject of a police inquiry. Border Force says the Department of Agriculture reported the illness details to NSW Health.

On disembarkation the passengers all suspected something was wrong. The crew had lined up for the usual guard of honour, calling goodbye to the passengers. But the official part of the disembarkation felt rushed. As one person said “They got us off the ship so fast, I was astounded how fast we were shipped out of there.’’

My opinion is what kind of numbskull, knowing '24 persons with temperature over 38 degrees Celsius, six persons with muscle aches, diarrhoea, severe headaches or vomiting' were on board would let anyone leave. I do not care if they were medically qualified or not, trained in biosecurity or not, that was criminally negligent. Plain common-sense should have raised the red flag to keep everyone on board until the whole ship could be checked out. The rushing of the people off the ship IMHO shows others knew it was 'bad' but still did nothing except try to get them off as soon as possible. Methinks this is indicative of a culture that desperately needs changing. However as I have often said public servants are usually more process than results oriented - now we see the tragic consequences.

Well those tests were positive to Covid. So far I think 10 people have died as a direct result of this bungle and it is estimated it is responsible for 10% of all the cases we have in Australia.

Added Later
They interviewed the NSW Health Minister. He was sticking to all the processes were followed, he even had a look at obscure rules deep in the operating procedures of the health department. Everyone knows if it wasn't for this emergency he would be sacked immediately - now it will wait until this is over. It is reported he has his exit strategy. When I worked in the PS these process oriented people were annoying - now we see they are potentially dangerous.

With both Sadness and Anger
Bill

 

[bhobba]

My point is that this is not just a financial crisis for business and workers, it is a crisis for government also.

True, but due to low interest rates and long term borrowing perhaps a manageable one.

Thanks
Bill

 

[peanut]

I have heard there are reportedly 8 strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the world. Does that mean we can get COVID-19 a total of 8 times?

I think the answer is "No". These "strains" represent some mutations that occur as the virus spreads. Most mutations are either harmless or harmful to the virus, and do not affect our body's ability to respond to them. There is NO evidence that these strains are distinct SEROTYPES like those in dengue where there is no cross-immunity among serotypes. There has NOT been enough time for the virus to develop distinct serotypes, and based on CURRENT evidence, immunity to one "strain" SHOULD confer immunity to the rest. This MAY change if enough people get infected and the virus has enough hosts to mutate in - all the more reason to keep the total number of infections low. But I could be wrong. Please correct me if I am wrong, @Vanadium 50, sir.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Stop it.

Just because I called you out on spouting nonsense doesn't mean I am a virologist. Nor does it mean that my job is to scan up and down for more nonsense.

 

[anorlunda]

This video was very helpful to describe the requirements of a ventilator to treat COVID-19 patients. Especially, it explains why simple-minded ventilators that could be produced rapidly are inadequate and could be harmful to COVID-19 victims.

Beware, the last 2 minutes of the video are an advertizement.

 

[Astronuc]

This video was very helpful to describe the requirements of a ventilator to treat COVID-19 patients. Especially, it explains why simple-minded ventilators that could be produced rapidly are inadequate and could be harmful to COVID-19 victims.

Very informative video. At 10:14, a doctor mentions a condition called atelectasis. The doctor starts at 9:36 with a discussion of how lungs function.

Atelectasis is a complete or partial collapse of the entire lung or area (lobe) of the lung. It occurs when the tiny air sacs (alveoli) within the lung become deflated or possibly filled with alveolar fluid.

Atelectasis is one of the most common breathing (respiratory) complications after surgery. It's also a possible complication of other respiratory problems, including cystic fibrosis, lung tumors, chest injuries, fluid in the lung and respiratory weakness. You may develop atelectasis if you breathe in a foreign object.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/atelectasis/symptoms-causes/syc-20369684

Cheap ventilators may do harm to patients.

 

[Astronuc]

How do COVID-19 deaths compare to flu deaths in Washington state?

Officials reported 91 flu deaths in Washington in the 2019-2020 flu season, which started in October, while 291 COVID-19 deaths have been reported in Washington since this January.

https://komonews.com/news/coronavir...ths-compare-to-flu-deaths-in-washington-state

 

[Vanadium 50]

Washington has 2.3% of the US population. They should have about 2.3% of the flu fatalities. A very light year is 12000-15000 fatalities. So there should be 250-300 flu deaths. I find the 91 number likely to be underreported (I have no opinion on the Covid-19 number)

This has been an astoundingly mild flu season in terms of fatalities. Very high in terms of reported cases, especially since March. It's as if many patients went to see their doctors thinking they had Covid-19 but in fact had the flu.

 

[mfb]

while 291 COVID-19 deaths have been reported in Washington since this January.

Over 100 in the last four days where Wikipedia has numbers (195 -> 310).
The flu deaths look a bit odd.

This flu season could be very mild as Covid-19 precautions also reduce the influenza spread and more people get tested.

 

[peanut]

Ivermectin is an inhibitor of the COVID19 Coronavirus SARSCoV2 IN VITRO. A single treatment is able to effect ∼5000-fold reduction of the virus at 48H in cell culture. Ivermectin warrants further investigation clinical trials for possible benefits in humans.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scien...sLZNAt5Fq76NjO8maDJW8lXG-X--zO9AesU0Zm_OcBcng

 

[Astronuc]

“the New South Wales Health panel has assessed the Ruby Princess as not requiring an on-board health assessment in Sydney.’’

The police inquiry will have to determine who made that determination and relayed it to the Ruby Princess. And even then, the Border Security should not have allowed anyone to disembark without health checks and mandatory quarantine. How could those responsible not know the threat of coronavirus, especially the WHO pandemic declaration on March 11. The other question will be, who brought the virus on board - someone embarking in Sydney, or from NZ.

Even Princess Cruise Lines was aware as of March 11.
https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/coronavirus-update.html

 

[kolleamm]

I know the quarantine is helping slow the spread of the virus, but my question is why are the cases still rising? Where are all these people getting sick from?

 

[mattt]

I know the quarantine is helping slow the spread of the virus, but my question is why are the cases still rising? Where are all these people getting sick from?

One reason is simply that they are testing more and more people.

 

[peanut]

I know the quarantine is helping slow the spread of the virus, but my question is why are the cases still rising? Where are all these people getting sick from?

Is the rising of cases trend consistent? I have no idea where you from and the number of days in lockdown. But push for more (lockdown + massive testing) to attain less (viral contamination). No host, virus destroyed... Keep pushing!

 

[Astronuc]

I find the 91 number likely to be underreported (I have no opinion on the Covid-19 number)

Details from Washington state DOH.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/portals/1/documents/5100/420-100-fluupdate.pdf
More data - https://www.doh.wa.gov/DataandStati...aseSurveillanceData/InfluenzaSurveillanceData

It is possible that cases of influenza are under-reported, but then again, in the beginning, some COVID-19 cases were initially thought to be cases of influenza. I don't know the protocol for reporting an influenza case or death. When I had the flu, I was not tested. The doctor simply looked in my nose and throat, declared I had the flu and prescribed Tamiflu and cough suppressant.

A colleague at work was diagnosed with the flu and treated with Tamiflu. He said he had the type A, which was not covered in the vaccine this season. We both got the vaccine about the same time in October.

As for COVID-19, there have been deaths of 'presumptive' cases, i.e., patients had symptoms but were not tested, and I don't know if testing was performed posthumously.

Over 100 in the last four days where Wikipedia has numbers (195 -> 310).
The flu deaths look a bit odd.

This flu season could be very mild as Covid-19 precautions also reduce the influenza spread and more people get tested.

Washington state recently revised their reporting, which is why cases/deaths were not reported from March 28 through April 1 until about April 2. They are separating confirmed cases from presumptive cases, but I don't know how consistent that is from the different county health agencies. The Wikipedia numbers cited may be erroneous, since they do not reflect revisions by the state health department, and Washington DOH continues to revise numbers.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus, look for "Current Status in Washington State", then look at "Cumulative Case and Death Counts" (page 3/6). One can right click on the plots to get a table representation of the data.

The actions taken to mitigate spread of COVID-19 seem to have also mitigated spread of influenza.

I've been tracking NY and Washington states since early March.

           New York     Washington
Date    Cases Deaths  Cases  Deaths
3/28/20  59513   965    4704   203
3/29/20  66497  1218    5101   217
3/30/20  75795  1550    5559   223
3/31/20  83712  1941    6047   245
4/1/20   92381  2373    6640   262
4/2/20  102863  2835    7033   272
4/3/20  113704  3565    7591   310

For NY, which also revised how the report the data:
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n

In the US, each state must collect data from counties, and therein lies a challenge. For example, There are 39 counties in the U.S. state of Washington and 62 counties in the state of New York. It's not clear if each county uses the same reporting method.

New York now reports cases/deaths by each of 5 counties in NY City, Queens (highest number of cases), King (highest number of deaths), Manhattan, Bronx and Richmond (Staten Island), whereas before, data were reported for all of NY City.

 

[PeroK]

I know the quarantine is helping slow the spread of the virus, but my question is why are the cases still rising? Where are all these people getting sick from?

They were already in the system. When the lockdown was started there could have been up to ten times as many cases at the incubation stage. And, each of those cases might cause another 1-2 cases before the symptoms were noticed. This is, largely, what the western countries are going through at the moment. There are probably few genuinely new cases since lockdown; ones that were neither already incubating nor inevitable.

 

[Bystander]

I know the quarantine is helping slow the spread of the virus, but my question is why are the cases still rising? Where are all these people getting sick from?

It's difficult to err in the other direction. That would suggest there is an element of closing the barn door after the horse has run off

 

[peanut]

Good framing, acknowledges the problem, offers clear solutions from policy to HH, simple language, reaches out to others, all in 25 minutes. Major move called “Circuit Breaker” is explained well, re-assures the public, defines the essentials and even comes up with a call to action at the end. A continuing narrative wo much relying on optics and all...

 

[peanut]

Stop it.

Just because I called you out on spouting nonsense doesn't mean I am a virologist. Nor does it mean that my job is to scan up and down for more nonsense.

I'm sorry to hurt your feelings. Please accept my sincere apologies. I should have studied the article I posted. It's all my fault Kadiot took vacation.

Photo by Phil Rood Illustration

 

[Astronuc]

NY Times - 430,000 People Have Traveled From China to U.S. Since Coronavirus Surfaced
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/us/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions.html

There were 1,300 direct flights to 17 cities before President Trump’s travel restrictions. Since then, nearly 40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers have made the trip, some this past week and many with spotty screening.

Which is consistent with the high concentrations of cases around those cities. And it does not include travel from EU or regions outside of China.

Since Chinese officials disclosed the outbreak of a mysterious pneumonia-like illness to international health officials on New Year’s Eve, at least 430,000 people have arrived in the United States on direct flights from China, including nearly 40,000 in the two months after President Trump imposed restrictions on such travel, according to an analysis of data collected in both countries.

The bulk of the passengers, who were of multiple nationalities, arrived in January, at airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Seattle, Newark and Detroit. Thousands of them flew directly from Wuhan, the center of the Coronavirus outbreak, as American public health officials were only beginning to assess the risks to the United States.

Flights continued this past week, the data show, with passengers traveling from Beijing to Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, under rules that exempt Americans and some others [e.g., legal permanent residents] from the clampdown that took effect on Feb. 2. In all, 279 flights from China have arrived in the United States since then, and screening procedures have been uneven, interviews show.

 

[bhobba]

How could those responsible not know the threat of coronavirus, especially the WHO pandemic declaration on March 11. The other question will be, who brought the virus on board - someone embarking in Sydney, or from NZ.

There were many people with the authority to say - stop - we can't let these people off without a thorough assessment of the ship by a health team. As I said it required no medical or biosecurity training to see it was required - just commonsense on the part of someone. I believe many people from the captain, ships doctor, the nursing staff, NSW health, boarderforce, the biosecurity people and probably others if we thought about it a bit more could and should have stopped the people from leaving the ship. I doubt who the police investigation pins it on is the only responsible person. It was a debacle - pure and simple. A disgraceful episode in Australia's handling of the epidemic. I said 10% of Australia's cases originated from this. I just heard a doctor from South Australia announce in their state it's 25% of cases.

Thanks
Bill