Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[Astronuc]

Infectious disease doctors say it is still mainly unvaccinated people, most of whom are in their 30s and 40s with no underlying health issues, who are dying.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/dying-covid-still-mainly-unvaccinated-090546286.html

 

[morrobay]

While the above graph is factual . The percent of Covid deaths in unvaccinated: 9/100000 , 009% Have different perceptions.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The case numbers in NZ today -- https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-...R8Kuo8wgh1Vtlslowc7-fByDgHnctd4R-_K1yHrT2d3gs -- now Omicron has taken hold, as well as updates on the rather unruly protest happening at Parliament grounds.

 

[atyy]

Here's a nice opinion piece in STAT news speculating about possible scenarios for evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus going forward, laying out four different possible scenarios that have been observed in the evolution of other viruses. Here's a good summary from later in the article:Coronaviruses are ‘clever’: Evolutionary scenarios for the future of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.statnews.com/2022/02/16...onary-scenarios-for-the-future-of-sars-cov-2/

The article emphasizes the importance of ongoing surveillance to catch new variants as they arrive as well as ensuring global distribution of effective vaccines to limit the opportunities for new variants to evolve.

I'm hoping immunity will be progressively more variant resistant, at least immunity against severe illness. Hybrid immunity even shows some poor but detectable neutralization against SARS1. RNA vaccination of people who've had SARS1 shows pretty decent neutralization against both SARS1 and SARS2 and a pretty wide range of coronaviruses. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108453

 

[Ygggdrasil]

I'm hoping immunity will be progressively more variant resistant, at least immunity against severe illness. Hybrid immunity even shows some poor but detectable neutralization against SARS1. RNA vaccination of people who've had SARS1 shows pretty decent neutralization against both SARS1 and SARS2 and a pretty wide range of coronaviruses. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108453

T-cell immunity, which is likely a major factor providing protection against severe illness, does not seem to be affected much by the variants. For example, see the following article:

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination induces immunological T cell memory able to cross-recognize variants from Alpha to Omicron
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00073-3

While the initial two dose immunization with the mRNA vaccines does not provide good protection against infection by some of the newer variants like Delta or Omega (while still providing protection against hospitalization and death), the booster dose (> 6 months after the initial series) does seem to expand the breadth of antibodies produced to be able to neutralize the newer variants:

Omicron’s message on vaccines: Boosting begets breadth
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00006-X

This data is in line with what we know about somatic hypermutation and other processes during B-cell maturation that help to refine antibody affinity over time. Of course, it still remains to be seen how long protection from the booster shot lasts and whether the breadth of the neutralizing antibody response will be sufficient to protect against the next major variant that arises.

 

[Astronuc]

New York state just passed 4.9 million cases. They have been collecting data on reinfections, and the state started reporting the trend recently. Some earlier reinfections, last year, were probably Delta on top of Alpha, but more recently, it seems the reinfections were Omicron at a high rate.

Cumulative, 4885066 first infections, 195058 reinfections.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-reinfection-data

 

[StevieTNZ]

Cases in NZ continue to grow:
* 14,633 new community cases
* 344 people in hospital; 5 in intensive care or high dependency care unit

Most are likely Omicron, though I'm sure Delta will still be spreading.

 

[bhobba]

now Omicron has taken hold, as well as updates on the rather unruly protest happening at Parliament grounds.

I do not know if they were 'peaceful' or not (i.e. in what way they were unruly), but here in Aus, what we eventually figured out is if the police work with the protesters, you get better results. How feasible it is in NZ, I have no idea. Of course, Australia went through precisely the same issues - we had to learn it the hard way.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Most are likely Omicron, though I'm sure Delta will still be spreading.

Just like Aus. What concerns me most is the demographic of the deaths; 50% are aged-care residents. We knew from the Melbourne outbreak it would happen. Authorities should have done something to protect them sooner. Due to the floods on the east coast, nurses with Covid had to be pulled from isolation; staff shortages are that bad.

Thanks
Bill

 

[bhobba]

Cumulative, 4885066 first infections, 195058 reinfections.
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-reinfection-data

The experience here in Brisbane is 90% seem to be asymptomatic, or experience symptoms so mild they hardly notice it. The numbers could be much much higher. That is the hypothesis our new Chief Medical Officer is using. People are getting worried if that group get long Covid. It could be a long term health tsunami, but I don't think anyone knows for sure.

Thanks
Bill

 

[StevieTNZ]

There are 19,566 new community cases in New Zealand on Tuesday, the Ministry of Health has confirmed.

There are also 373 people in hospital with the virus, nine of whom are in intensive care.

In total, there are just under 100,000 active cases across New Zealand currently.

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-conferences-with-dr-ashley-bloomfield-return

 

[StevieTNZ]

I do not know if they were 'peaceful' or not (i.e. in what way they were unruly), but here in Aus, what we eventually figured out is if the police work with the protesters, you get better results. How feasible it is in NZ, I have no idea. Of course, Australia went through precisely the same issues - we had to learn it the hard way.

Thanks
Bill

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...sters-in-dramatic-confrontation-at-parliament

Some action finally done to remove the illegal occupation of Parliament grounds (the Speaker trespassed them many weeks ago).

 

[pinball1970]

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-conferences-with-dr-ashley-bloomfield-return

UK has seen decreasing numbers cases/deaths through FEB with all restriction ceased by March 1st. We are at July numbers now.

 

[pinball1970]

Yes. They are reporting the numbers in a different way prior to March 2022 in the UK technical briefings. We are officially 'out' of the pandemic. From March 1st
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

A lot of people died last week. I'll post the technical link tomorrow. No access now, apologies

 

[pinball1970]

A little bit late...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...soccurringbetween1january2021and31january2022

Also https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Considering high rates of vaccination and Omicron less virulent strain quite high deaths. 250 per day on a 7 day average.

Trend is now coming down again though.

 

[pinball1970]

What the hell? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

[pinball1970]

@PeroK is based in London and has a handle on statistics. This curve was sorted out last week from these spikes and dots. Now we are back to spikes with one over 600 deaths??
With cases now at less than 20,000 why are deaths so high?
Probably need an @atyy on this too.
Is this because reporting methods have changed? Pandemic to endemic?

 

[Astronuc]

This curve was sorted out last week from these spikes and dots. Now we are back to spikes with one over 600 deaths??
With cases now at less than 20,000 why are deaths so high?

Could it be a matter of the deaths occurred over a period or weeks or months, and only now, they are confirmed as, or attributed to, Covid-19? We have seen this in the US where individual states have updated statistics, such that on one day, several hundred to a few thousand cases/deaths are added to the database.

 

[DrGreg]

With cases now at less than 20,000 why are deaths so high? Is this because reporting methods have changed?

Because fewer people are being tested. In the UK, if you want a lateral flow test you now have to pay for it, and PCR tests are no longer available to most people (even those with COVID symptoms). Fewer tests implies fewer detected cases. So the daily "number of cases" is no longer such a useful statistic. However the ONS estimate that is based on random sampling is still meaningful, but that's not updated daily.

 

[pinball1970]

Could it be a matter of the deaths occurred over a period or weeks or months, and only now, they are confirmed as, or attributed to, Covid-19? We have seen this in the US where individual states have updated statistics, such that on one day, several hundred to a few thousand cases/deaths are added to the database.

Yes how they accrue and adjust has always been there but 650 deaths in one day?
The UK has to go back to February Alpha variant with very low double jab numbers.
My mum was complaining about her sore arm this week with her booster. Second booster so that is four since it started.
She is 79 so I am just glad she is facing this thing with her immunity as good as it can be.
Another year of this will see our demographics change. Over 50s and black and Asian possibly.

 

[PeroK]

@PeroK is based in London and has a handle on statistics. This curve was sorted out last week from these spikes and dots. Now we are back to spikes with one over 600 deaths??
With cases now at less than 20,000 why are deaths so high?
Probably need an @atyy on this too.
Is this because reporting methods have changed? Pandemic to endemic?

I think there has been a surge in cases but as @DrGreg says not so many people are getting tested. It's not over yet!

 

[Astronuc]

I think there has been a surge in cases but as @DrGreg says not so many people are getting tested. It's not over yet!

Locally, a close friend developed a SARS-Cov-2 infection and developed symptoms of a severe cold (fever, coughing, fatigue, . . . ). He had been fully vaccinated including a booster, but probably was exposed to BA.2 at work (mask mandates and social distancing requirements removed). His wife has so far avoided an infection. My wife and I always wear a mask in public.

In our state, I have noted an increase in positive tests, but the number of deaths is fairly constant, varying between 6 and 14 during the past month. Locally, we have not had a death attributed in 26 days, although we have seen a slight increase in positive tests.

 

[atyy]

@PeroK is based in London and has a handle on statistics. This curve was sorted out last week from these spikes and dots. Now we are back to spikes with one over 600 deaths??
With cases now at less than 20,000 why are deaths so high?
Probably need an @atyy on this too.
Is this because reporting methods have changed? Pandemic to endemic?

According to Paul Mainwood, these may be reporting artifacts. When the deaths are dated according to when the happened, rather than when they are reported, it seems deaths are falling. The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) reports that excess deaths, adjusted for population changes, in England and Wales are less than in 2019.

 

[Astronuc]

The vaccinated made up 42% of fatalities in January and February during the highly contagious omicron variant's surge, compared with 23% of the dead in September, the peak of the delta wave, according to nationwide data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed by The Post. The data is based on the date of infection and limited to a sampling of cases in which vaccination status was known.

As a group, the unvaccinated remain far more vulnerable to the worst consequences of infection - and are far more likely to die - than people who are vaccinated, and they are especially more at risk than people who have received a booster shot.

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-deaths-no-longer-overwhelmingly-132139645.html

 

[bhobba]

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-deaths-no-longer-overwhelmingly-132139645.html

I too remember times when we cared more about our neighbours. Got my 4th shot last week and am still hunkering down. Debating whether to see my psychiatrist tomorrow. He has offices in a hospital. Probably will reschedule. I want the 4th dose to fully kick in and the number getting it (currently about 5,000 per day) to fall even lower before easing personal restrictions. As is now well known it is not the elderly and at-risk groups that are predominantly getting it, but they still are still the group with the highest fatality rate.

Here is the latest data I can find on 4th dose effectiveness:
https://www.sciencealert.com/an-epi...-ll-be-needing-a-second-booster-in-the-future

I haven't heard too much about the new anti-virals lately. I was hoping for more data on those.

Thanks
Bill

 

[Astronuc]

Officially, the U.S. will almost certainly reach an awful milestone in the next two weeks: its one millionth recorded Covid-19 death.In reality, this milestone was likely unofficially crossed days or weeks ago, and we’ll never know the exact toll or the identity of the pandemic’s actual millionth victim. Nor are humans well-equipped to fully grasp loss on this scale, let alone the magnitude of a global toll estimated to be as high as 14.9 million.

https://www.statnews.com/2022/05/10/the-five-pandemics-driving-1-million-u-s-covid-deaths/

I don't know what institution is the arbiter on the official death toll due to COVID-19, probably the CDC or HHS, but we are probably already over 1 million fatalities due to or with Covid.

NY Times reports as of last night 996,916 deaths due to Covid, with 67,865 in NY State (including 40,248 in New York City, or 0.593 of the state total). However, NY State, as of last night, reports 71,004 deaths to the CDC of which 55,647 are considered 'confirmed', since they occurred in a hospital or other care facility (medical setting). I expect other states are similarly undercounted, so the US should be over 1 million deaths due to SARS-Cov-2, since March 2020, and the estimate for the world, 14.9 million, or 15 million, is probably reasonable.

Many more excess deaths may have occurred because emergency services in many cities have not been able to respond to usual events such as heart attacks or strokes, because EMS systems and ERs have been overwhelmed, according to a family member who is a doctor. The same family member had a person collapse in the parking lot of their facility. The person had a severe case of Covid-19, and as I recalled, died shortly thereafter.

 

[bhobba]

probably already over 1 million fatalities due to or with Covid.

I think you are likely correct.

The omicron one pandemic is coming to an end. As far as deaths go, it was like a bad flu season:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext

What worries me is we seem to have even more contagious varients constantly appearing. The continually rising case numbers seem due to ever more contagious varients BA2, BA3, BA4 etc. It does not fill me with glee:
https://covidlive.com.au/

We are making a slow transition from pandemic to endemic because of these new variants:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/who...ts-have-spread-to-over-a-dozen-countries.html

We all must guard against Fluorina - that is bad. I only hope the scientific effort to find even better vaccines and antivirals continue. Not at 'warp speed' pace where I heard ophthalmologists, for example, were called away from surgery to do laboratory work. We can't sustain that - but we must keep moving forward.

From today's local paper. About 92% of people in Queensland are fully vaccinated. Despite that:

'Covid has claimed the lives of more Queenslanders in five months than the entire Spanish flu pandemic as new data reveals unvaccinated patients are 10 times more likely to die from the virus. Seven deaths were recorded in the first two years of the pandemic, but as of Thursday, 918 Queenslanders have died since January 1 – half of which were aged care residents. By comparison, just 264 people died in one of Queensland’s worst flu seasons in 2017 and just over 800 Queenslanders died in the entire outbreak of the 1919 Spanish flu. Unvaccinated Queenslanders remain the most at-risk, with data revealing that due to the large population differences, they are 10 times more likely to die from Covid. It comes as 223 of the 4.8 million vaccinated Queenslanders have died from Covid-19 compared to 235 of the unvaccinated cohort of 410,000.'

We can't let our guard down. Everyone needs a third shot and while I don't think the data is fully in yet expand the 4th shot from over 65's and the immunocompromised (I am both) to everyone. Evidently, Australia is awash with vaccines so no supply problems. It is our choice - is Covid going to be like a bad flu season or a lot worse. It is probably of no value repeating it on this forum where people are rational, but please, please GET VACCINATED.

I know it is a worldwide issue, but why oh why are we not protecting aged care residents better. As a society, we can do so much better for those in their golden years. We all will eventually be in that group.

Thanks
Bill

 

[pinball1970]

I think you are likely correct.

The omicron one pandemic is coming to an end. As far as deaths go, it was like a bad flu season:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext

What worries me is we seem to have even more contagious varients constantly appearing. The continually rising case numbers seem due to ever more contagious varients BA2, BA3, BA4 etc. It does not fill me with glee:
https://covidlive.com.au/

We are making a slow transition from pandemic to endemic because of these new variants:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/who...ts-have-spread-to-over-a-dozen-countries.html

We all must guard against Fluorina - that is bad. I only hope the scientific effort to find even better vaccines and antivirals continue. Not at 'warp speed' pace where I heard ophthalmologists, for example, were called away from surgery to do laboratory work. We can't sustain that - but we must keep moving forward.

From today's local paper. About 92% of people in Queensland are fully vaccinated. Despite that:

'Covid has claimed the lives of more Queenslanders in five months than the entire Spanish flu pandemic as new data reveals unvaccinated patients are 10 times more likely to die from the virus. Seven deaths were recorded in the first two years of the pandemic, but as of Thursday, 918 Queenslanders have died since January 1 – half of which were aged care residents. By comparison, just 264 people died in one of Queensland’s worst flu seasons in 2017 and just over 800 Queenslanders died in the entire outbreak of the 1919 Spanish flu. Unvaccinated Queenslanders remain the most at-risk, with data revealing that due to the large population differences, they are 10 times more likely to die from Covid. It comes as 223 of the 4.8 million vaccinated Queenslanders have died from Covid-19 compared to 235 of the unvaccinated cohort of 410,000.'

We can't let our guard down. Everyone needs a third shot and while I don't think the data is fully in yet expand the 4th shot from over 65's and the immunocompromised (I am both) to everyone. Evidently, Australia is awash with vaccines so no supply problems. It is our choice - is Covid going to be like a bad flu season or a lot worse. It is probably of no value repeating it on this forum where people are rational, but please, please GET VACCINATED.

I know it is a worldwide issue, but why oh why are we not protecting aged care residents better. As a society, we can do so much better for those in their golden years. We all will eventually be in that group.

Thanks
Bill

There was an article in the metro today (UK) about North Korea having cases.
They refused help from the west in terms of vaccines so a highly infectious variant of the types we have seen in the last 6 months would cause havoc.
The numbers in the UK are behind, now we are at 70 deaths but that on May 9th.
Numbers in hospital continue to fall so besides maintenance (boosters) and some personal choices (mask on public transport for instance) that is pretty much it.
Think twice about visiting gran if you were at the pub the night before?
Personal choices now.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Our Prime Minister has tested positive for Covid, meaning she will miss the delivery of Budget 2022/23 by our Minister of Finance, on Thursday 19 May in Parliament.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/30...he-cant-make-emissions-reduction-announcement

 

[Buzz Bloom]

For the record, I did a bit of searching and learned that Jacinda Ardern is Prime Minister of New Zealand.
I suppose it was probably not necessary with "TNZ" ending "Stevie".

 

[pinball1970]

A spike here. More testing due to holiday travel possibly but the numbers are translating to hospital admissions

 

[kyphysics]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twin-omicron-subvariants-taken-over-151202670.html

A pair of immune-evading Omicron subvariants are now dominant in the U.S., having overtaken so-called "stealth Omicron" and close relative BA.2.12.1 in mere weeks, according to federal health data released Tuesday.

BA.4 and BA.5, which swept South Africa this spring along thanks to their ability to evade immunity, were estimated to have caused slightly more than half (52%) of COVID infections in the U.S. last week, according to new data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“The Omicron subvariant BA.5 is the worst version of the virus that we’ve seen,” Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, wrote Monday in anticipation of the viral coup.

"It takes immune escape, already extensive, to the next level, and, as a function of that, enhanced transmissibility," well beyond what has been seen before, he wrote. "You could say it’s not so bad because there hasn’t been a marked rise in hospitalizations and deaths as we saw with Omicron, but that’s only because we had such a striking adverse impact from Omicron, for which there is at least some cross-immunity."

BA.2.12.1, another Omicron subvariant dominant before the advent of BA.4 and BA.5, was responsible for 42% of cases. So-called stealth Omicron, BA.2, nicknamed for its ability to evade detection on PCR tests, came in third, comprising nearly 6% of cases. It had been dominant in the U.S. until BA.2.12.1 overtook it last month.

The jury is still out on whether current vaccines hold up against BA.5. But given that vaccines experienced an approximate 15% drop in protection against severe disease from Delta to Omicron, "it would not be at all surprising to me to see further decline of protection against hospitalizations and deaths," Topol wrote.

Anyone here successfully memorize all the variants? It's honestly gotten confusing for me, having not read up on COVID news for a couple of months.

Are any variants - dominant or not - currently capable of (at a high rate):

a.) evading vaccines
b.) causing severe medical outcomes

Or, are things still holding up "okay" for those vaxxed and boosted?

*trying to catch up on the latest - would be grateful for a 1...or 2 sentence summary update for those following more closely if the quoted article is incorrect*

 

[bhobba]

Anyone here successfully memorize all the variants?

I think it has become a subspecialty in itself . Seriously here in Brisbane, it has led to a third wave and Omicron 4 and 5 are expected to be the dominant strains in 3 weeks - they already are rising fast.

It's disconcerting, but I seem to recall many immunologists predicted this would happen at the beginning of the pandemic. Really it's just evolution in action. Fortunately, the drug companies have not been resting on their laurels:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...nd-biontech-announce-omicron-adapted-covid-19

Thanks
Bill

 

[hutchphd]

I am waiting for the Omicron specific Pfizer for my second booster. Does anyone know the availability status/timetable ? (I'm in the USA)

 

[Oldman too]

Have you already tried this? not sure if it picks up on the specific strain though.
https://www.vaccines.gov/