Covid Variant Omicron (B.1.1.529)

[kyphysics]

Vaccinated?

I never officially asked him, but I think he probably was.

We've talked before about COVID and he says he always tries to "do as in Rome" when it comes to masking. Said he respects others wishes when going out and will mask if others desire it. I can't say for certain he was vaxed, but given how respectful he was of others' virus concerns, I'd think he was. In any case, he's as fit as you can imagine - again, former college athlete (who has competed all over the world for Olympic qualifications and world championships).

 

[pinball1970]

I never officially asked him, but I think he probably was.

We've talked before about COVID and he says he always tries to "do as in Rome" when it comes to masking. Said he respects others wishes when going out and will mask if others desire it. I can't say for certain he was vaxed, but given how respectful he was of others' virus concerns, I'd think he was. In any case, he's as fit as you can imagine - again, former college athlete (who has competed all over the world for Olympic qualifications and world championships).

25% of UK premiership footballers are not vaccinated. By choice.

 

[kyphysics]

25% of UK premiership footballers are not vaccinated. By choice.

I'm not surprised. If you're young and healthy, you might think the risk-reward of vaxing is not worth it. Of course, vaxing is not just for you, but for others (who are vulnerable) and the risk-reward may actually be in favor of vaxing overall, but perhaps these individuals don't follow the science/real news (not fake news) enough to make an informed opinion.

There is probably still work to be done in properly educating people on the risk-rewards of vaxing. Ultimately, I still respect people's choices not to get vaxed. I am less tolerant on masking, because there doesn't seem to be health risks to people to mask (other than to those with breathing issues for which we already have rule exceptions for). Not masking, even if it protects your neighbor, seems kinda selfish to me.

Not vaxing, b/c you think they risk-reward is not worth it, seems rational - even if I think often logically flawed. By the way, lots of pilots have reportedly been reluctant to take the vax, because blood clots are a possible side effect. It is known that pilots are also more susceptible to blood clots already within the overall population. So, I can understand why some may be hesitant. They could lose their ability to fly if they get a blood clot (or even die), as they are tested regularly for health and fitness to fly. ...Of course, if they catch COVID, they could also end up with symptoms making them ineligible to fly too! Long COVID's brain fog would be crushing to their careers, for example...but maybe they're not thinking about that or know enough of it.

It's a tricky thing re: decisions to vax or not for the young/healthy. I am understanding.

 

[pinball1970]

I'm not surprised. If you're young and healthy, you might think the risk-reward of vaxing is not worth it. Of course, vaxing is not just for you, but for others (who are vulnerable) and the risk-reward may actually be in favor of vaxing overall, but perhaps these individuals don't follow the science/real news (not fake news) enough to make an informed opinion.

There is probably still work to be done in properly educating people on the risk-rewards of vaxing. Ultimately, I still respect people's choices not to get vaxed. I am less tolerant on masking, because there doesn't seem to be health risks to people to mask (other than to those with breathing issues for which we already have rule exceptions for). Not masking, even if it protects your neighbor, seems kinda selfish to me.

Not vaxing, b/c you think they risk-reward is not worth it, seems rational - even if I think often logically flawed. By the way, lots of pilots have reportedly been reluctant to take the vax, because blood clots are a possible side effect. It is known that pilots are also more susceptible to blood clots already within the overall population. So, I can understand why some may be hesitant. They could lose their ability to fly if they get a blood clot (or even die), as they are tested regularly for health and fitness to fly. ...Of course, if they catch COVID, they could also end up with symptoms making them ineligible to fly too! Long COVID's brain fog would be crushing to their careers, for example...but maybe they're not thinking about that or know enough of it.

It's a tricky thing re: decisions to vax or not for the young/healthy. I am understanding.

Pfizer has now been approved for 5-11 year olds
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...f-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-in-5-to-11-year-olds

 

[artis]

@kyphysics wait I didn't understand , so who was vaxxed , the old person you said felt nothing or the new athlete or both?

 

[hutchphd]

It's a tricky thing re: decisions to vax or not for the young/healthy. I am understanding.

Why is it a tricky thing? One looks at the numbers and decides on that basis. Oh wait (!) we have hired people to do that for us and for the most part they are better informed and smarter than we are.
Do what the CDC says and do not perseverate. You will live longer

 

[Astronuc]

New York State posted some relatively low numbers during the past couple of days, except for deaths yesterday. The drop in numbers likely had to do with the holiday, where data was not processed from last Friday through Sunday, until Monday morning. Positive cases have jumped to an average of nearly 38k/day, about an order of magnitude greater than two months ago, and about 5x a month ago.

Yesterday, NY State reported 137 deaths due to COVID-19, but some of those where probably from the weekend. Right now, the mortality rate is a little over 70/day (7-day average), but could be steadily rising, to 80 to 90/day, base on 84 today.

Looking at the age groups, one sees an increase in mortality of those in their 20s and 30s, but certainly not at the rates of those 60+. And NY State had one more death in the 10-19 age group, up from 20 to 21 deaths, after sitting at 20 for 10 days; it was 18 on Dec 14, and 17 on Dec 06, so roughly one death per week in the 10-19 population, with higher rates in the 20-29, 30-39, 40-49 and 50-59 groups.

I don't know the details from other states, since they don't make the detailed data readily available, but I do read stories of many states seeing dramatic increases in hospitalizations of children and young adults.

 

[StevieTNZ]

NSW cases today: 11,201
NZ's: 46

Congratulations, New Zealand! You're the best :D

 

[morrobay]

A new study from South Africa suggests antibodies from the omicorn variant are protective for the delta variant. A small sample and not peer reviewed . But could be good news.
https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/...inst-delta-covid-variant-south-africa-study-s

 

[artis]

A new study from South Africa suggests antibodies from the omicorn variant are protective for the delta variant. A small sample and not peer reviewed . But could be good news.

Well seems like Omicron is backwards compatible much like NTSC once was and USB interface connectors are and many others things in our IT and physics world.

It would have been better if it was the other way around though.

 

[pinball1970]

Well seems like Omicron is backwards compatible much like NTSC once was and USB interface connectors are and many others things in our IT and physics world.

It would have been better if it was the other way around though.

Not if Omicron is less severe and this is looking like the case.

 

[Astronuc]

Yes, I agree with the dramatic increase, I'm trying to reconcile the CDC Region 2 reporting 92% Omicron as compared to NY State, which heavily weights in Region 2, at 11% Omicron for the two week period ending 18-December. I'd like to know more about the measurements and weighted averaging.

CDC revises Omicron numbers lowering percentage drastically: "Omicron is now estimated to account for 58.6% of all new cases."
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81952698

I'm waiting to see the data.

Edit/update: from Politico

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention significantly revised its model of the breakdown of Covid-19 variants on Tuesday, estimating the Omicron strain accounted for about 58.6 percent of U.S. cases as of Dec. 25.

The public health agency’s previous estimate that the rapidly spreading variant accounted for 73.2 percent of cases nationwide on Dec. 18 is now revised down to 22.5 percent — a significant drop that falls outside the agency's earlier 95 percent prediction interval, or likely range where future analysis will fall, of 34 to 94.9 percent of all cases.

I thought the CDC statement concerning Dec 18 estimate was off. Their explanation as to why seems a bit off as well. Faulty predictions, or sloppy statistical analysis?

 

[artis]

Not if Omicron is less severe and this is looking like the case.

By all current data that truly seems to be the case and that is good, I was referring to antibody compatibility on the other hand.

 

[pinball1970]

ICDC revises Omicron numbers lowering percentage drastically: "Omicron is now estimated to account for 58.6% of all new cases."
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81952698

I'm waiting to

I posted a huge post!

 

[PeroK]

The UK has recorded about 450,000 new cases in the last three days since Xmas (including 183,000 cases today). There's no stopping it now. Perhaps we should rename it the "O-my-god" variant!

 

[Moes]

Why is it a tricky thing? One looks at the numbers and decides on that basis. Oh wait (!) we have hired people to do that for us and for the most part they are better informed and smarter than we are.
Do what the CDC says and do not perseverate. You will live longer

I agree with this besides for the statement “You will live longer”. It’s possible that from a personal perspective its not worth vaxing. Its more just a general rule that should be followed by everyone for the benefit of the population.

 

[pinball1970]

The UK has recorded about 450,000 new cases in the last three days since Xmas (including 183,000 cases today). There's no stopping it now. Perhaps we should rename it the "O-my-god" variant!

I posted on this.
Omicron could be the saviour, we all get it very quickly. This does what?

Takes us out of the game. In bed for 5 Days, isolation for 10
Stops us getting DELTA which is more likely to put us in A and E
Gives us another booster, we need that in case COVID19 is not quite finished with us.

I million cases per day. Globally. NHS Will be stretched as Bill said x% of Y is similar to 2/3X % of 3Y (currently)
Power through that though? This is the final straight? Finally?

 

[PeroK]

I posted on this.
Omicron could be the saviour, we all get it very quickly. This does what?

Takes us out of the game. In bed for 5 Days, isolation for 10
Stops us getting DELTA which is more likely to put us in A and E
Gives us another booster, we need that in case COVID19 is not quite finished with us.

I million cases per day. Globally. NHS Will be stretched as Bill said x% of Y is similar to 2/3X % of 3Y (currently)
Power through that though? This is the final straight? Finally?

Kill or cure! The next 3 months is going to be rough. After that who knows.

 

[hutchphd]

Kill or cure! The next 3 months is going to be rough. After that who knows.

Omicron knows...

 

[hutchphd]

I agree with this besides for the statement “You will live longer”

"We will live longer" is good enough for me...point taken.

 

[Astronuc]

NY State had one more death in the 10-19 age group, up from 20 to 21 deaths, after sitting at 20 for 10 days; it was 18 on Dec 14, and 17 on Dec 06, so roughly one death per week in the 10-19 population, with higher rates in the 20-29, 30-39, 40-49 and 50-59 groups.

Today, NY State reports 67,090 new positive COVID-19 cases, exceeding the previous daily record of 49,708 positive cases set 4 days ago. The state also reports 99 new deaths, including a child/youth (10-19) and another young adult (20-29), since the day before (there were 6 deaths in this age group since Dec 20, 8 days ago). The variant is not mentioned on conjunction with the new deaths. This represents a significant increase in mortality in those two age groups.

Edit/update: Using two sources from NY State,

                12/27   Pct     12/28     11/28   Diff
Statewide Total 48,150  100    48,249    46,484  1,765
Unknown              9       
90 and Over      7,520  15.6    7,530     7,320    210
80 to 89        12,861  26.7   12,882    12,469    413
70 to 79        12,465  25.9   12,492    11,992    500
60 to 69         8,798  18.3    8,817     8,460    357
50 to 59         4,168   8.7    4,181     4,011    170
40 to 49         1,482   3.1    1,489     1,426     63
30 to 39           620   1.3      620       587     33
20 to 29           189   0.4      190       176     14
10 to 19            21     0       22        17      5
 0 to  9            17     0       17        17      0

The last column shows the number of deaths in one month, 11/28 - 12/28. Many or most deaths in the younger age groups have occurred during the last week. So, the mortality rate seems to have increased significantly.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Idiot:
1. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...sion-rulebreaking-disappointing-minister-says
2. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...dj-who-broke-the-rules-is-a-punch-in-the-face

I'm not accepting his apology, but I will accept the right amount of cash if I catch omicron because of him.

 

[Evo]

Omicron Not Less Severe Than Delta, UK Study Says

I've got to get my booster shot. I had to got to the grocery store to get items I can't get delivered and there was only ONE other person wearing a mask, a little old lady. The employees weren't wearing any, people were looking at me like I was a freak. There were no longer markers for social distancing in the checkout lane. Didn't I know the pandemic was OVER??

it's all over tv, they're telling people they can gather again with friends and family, things are back to normal. WHAT?

Researchers estimate the risk of reinfection by Omicron is 5.4 times greater than for the Delta.

“This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%,” the blog said, adding that researchers estimated protection would be between 0-20% after two doses of vaccine and would be 55-80% after a booster shot.

“This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity given by both infection or vaccination. This level of immune evasion means that Omicron poses a major, imminent threat to public health.” wrote Professor Neil Ferguson, the leader of the research team.

“Quantifying reinfection risk and vaccine effectiveness against Omicron is essential for modelling the likely future trajectory of the Omicron wave and the potential impact of vaccination and other public health interventions,” Professor Azra Ghani of the Imperial College London wrote in the blog post.

There were only 24 known cases of hospitalization caused by Omicron, the study said, meaning more research will be needed in that area.

Health authorities in the United Kingdom worry that Omicron cases will overwhelm hospitals because the variant is spreading so fast and Omicron cases are doubling every two days.

“Whatever the eventual percentage of people with Omicron who will need NHS care, the absolute number seeking care will also double every two days,” Christina Pagel, director of UCL’s Clinical Operational Research Unit, wrote in an opinion piece for TheGuardian.

“So the question is not whether it will be bad for the NHS, but whether it will be just dreadful or catastrophic.”

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211221/uk-study-says-omicron-not-less-severe-than-delta?ecd=wnl_spr_122921&ctr=wnl-spr-122921_promo_link_1&mb=E@dJaVLVVwbLW8ywNt2x6OHnVev1imbCOuIpC1oF3cU=

 

[nsaspook]

For most of us, it seems from reports of cases, only a matter of time until infected by Omicron. Get your shots and boosters, wear your mask, shields to full power, do the right thing but it still won't be sufficient to prevent or even slow transmission for people living outside of a class 10 clean-room.

 

[Tom.G]

@Evo , The battling of conflicting reports:

preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.17.473248v1

popular report:
https://www.livescience.com/omicron-less-severe-disease-early-evidence

...despite its concerning PBCS mutations, omicron entered the lung cells and organoids less efficiently than delta and instead more closely resembled Wuhan-1.

...omicron initiated cell fusion less efficiently than delta, and this seemed to hinder the virus's ability to replicate in lung cells.

As usual, COVID-19 has generated many conflicting 'conclusions.'

Eventually (a year, a decade?), we may have many more definitive answers
The above seems to support other reports that the lungs are less affected by Omicron than by Delta, including how and why.

Cheers,
Tom

 

[Evo]

@Tom.G . I agree, Omicron, from what I've read is mainly in the bronchial tubes, which makes me question what is sending people to the hospital and dying, although right now there have not been many deaths.

I may have had Omicron, my neighbor advised me that he had been told where he works that he had been exposed to a co-worker with it, and he did end up with it, not too severe. A few days later, I woke up in the middle of the night with the most severe bout of what felt like croup, but really weird, it was wave after wave of mucous that I was having to clear from my vocal cords and airways, so much so, I had to remain over a bucket, this went on for about an hour before it finally lessened to the point where I could start to breath normally. I lost my voice for 2 days, I'm still hoarse. I had a slight fever, but I take fist fulls of aspirin and ibuprofen every day for pain.

I've just been feeling miserable, my youngest daughter had flown into town for Christmas and I had to cancel the first day and the second day, I just met with her for 1 1/2 hours and outside at a distance because I was afraid I might be contagious. I don't know what it is with me and Covid, I'm fully vaccinated, but I can see how this might send people to the ER. I am afraid of going to the ER/hospital I have had such bad experiences at the hospital, I just won't go unless I'm dying.

Right now, I am experiencing bad headaches and nausea, I can't eat. Hopefully this will end soon. I have Christmas gifts for neighbors that I haven't been able to deliver. It's not flu, no pain, and I had my flu shot.

 

[kyphysics]

Omicron Not Less Severe Than Delta, UK Study Says

I've got to get my booster shot. I had to got to the grocery store to get items I can't get delivered and there was only ONE other person wearing a mask, a little old lady. The employees weren't wearing any, people were looking at me like I was a freak. There were no longer markers for social distancing in the checkout lane. Didn't I know the pandemic was OVER??

it's all over tv, they're telling people they can gather again with friends and family, things are back to normal. WHAT?
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20211221/uk-study-says-omicron-not-less-severe-than-delta?ecd=wnl_spr_122921&ctr=wnl-spr-122921_promo_link_1&mb=E@dJaVLVVwbLW8ywNt2x6OHnVev1imbCOuIpC1oF3cU=

My head hurts from all the headlines saying different things re: Omicron's virulence vs. Delta...

Is it or isn't it worse? Do we have definitive results? What are the details? Anyone want to do a full summary?

 

[Tom.G]

Anyone want to do a full summary?

That does seem to be important to you.

So...

Have at it!... and Please let us know what your conclusions are, as they will be added to the (overly extensive) list of possibilities we are collecting.

 

[valenumr]

My head hurts from all the headlines saying different things re: Omicron's virulence vs. Delta...

Is it or isn't it worse? Do we have definitive results? What are the details? Anyone want to do a full summary?

I'd say... Hard to say. The data is much more complex now, with varying vaccination levels, a good handful of different vaccines, etc. I think the one thing that is becoming clear is that it's very contagious. I think any speculation on outcomes is still specious and anecdotal. But in my opinion, it's not great that it is really spreading rapidly. A bunch of sick folks is never a good thing.

 

[Ygggdrasil]

CDC revises Omicron numbers lowering percentage drastically: "Omicron is now estimated to account for 58.6% of all new cases."
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81952698

I'm waiting to see the data.

Edit/update: from PoliticoI thought the CDC statement concerning Dec 18 estimate was off. Their explanation as to why seems a bit off as well. Faulty predictions, or sloppy statistical analysis?

There are some difficulties in estimating the prevalence of omicron from variant sequencing data alone. The variant sequencing data can be used to track the relative prevalence of omicron vs delta only if samples are sequenced randomly. However, because omicron is new and identifiable by RT-qPCR testing (via S- result in the test), a lot of sequencing has been focused on omicron samples, so they are likely over-represented in the raw counts of omicron vs delta sequences in the variant sequencing databases. This issue is discussed in a letter published in the journal Science a few weeks ago:

Although S-gene data will be informative, preferential sequencing of samples with an S− result will lead to virus genomic datasets that are unrepresentative of the true underlying spatiotemporal prevalence of Omicron. To provide adequate context for genome sequences, depositors to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) database should use the newly introduced nonmandatory “sampling strategy” field to note how cases are selected and sampled for virus genome sequencing, including whether samples were specifically targeted for sequencing based on S− PCR results. [We have used this field to plot the first 115 Omicron submissions to GISAID, stratified by sampling strategy (8).] Virus genomic datasets then can be compiled from cases known to have been sampled randomly from a given population and analyzed to generate more-accurate estimates of Omicron’s growth relative to other variants. Standard sampling strategies include random community sampling [the preferred sampling strategy for estimating lineage growth (6, 9)], targeted surveillance of defined subpopulations (e.g., vaccine breakthrough cases or international travelers), and enhanced sampling to investigate specific outbreaks or clusters.

https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abn4543?af=R

My guess is that the ~70% figure was from raw counts of omicron vs delta in the raw sequencing data, while the ~50% figure has been corrected for the non-random sampling in the database.

 

[Rive]

battling of conflicting reports:

As I could puzzle this together, one study is about the observed severity, and says that while omicron can easily reinfect through any previous existing immunity, it still may be less severe. While if somebody had no previous encounter with vaccines or virus, then the expected 'original' severity is still ~ in the original range.
So UK may have it relative easy despite the insane speed it is spreading with, other countries with more active antivaxxer community are out of luck.

The other study is about the change in the attack focus of the virus.

 

[Rive]

Preprint: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC Transmission in Danish Households

The SAR was 31\% and 21\% in households with the Omicron and Delta VOC, respectively. We found an increased transmission for unvaccinated individuals, and a reduced transmission for booster-vaccinated individuals, compared to fully vaccinated individuals.

SAR as 'Secondary Attack Rate'
Vaccines still seems to work.

 

[pinball1970]

Globally and the UK the numbers are something we cannot argue with.

We had about 50 odd deaths yesterday and about 140 the day before so no real changes as yet from this increase here.GLOBAL

UK

 

[pinball1970]

Just to add the UKHSDA are due to release another report on 13th Jan 2022

In the meantime they do regular blogs, this thing is growing so quickly two weeks everything will have changed!

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/12/uk-daily-covid-numbers-omicron-overview.html

3/5ths less chance of hospitalization mentioned in the briefing but the blog ends with the following.

“While it is difficult, without better patient information, to speculate on the relative severity of Omicron based on these 668 hospitalizations and 50 deaths,

these numbers to suggest that some Omicron cases are seeing severe - and sometimes fatal - illness.

Some of these data reporting issues will be resolved by late next week, after the New Year's Holiday,

but the number of cases, the difficulty in identifying Omicron cases, and overwhelmed and short-staffed hospitals will likely still take their toll on data collection.”

 

[PeroK]

and overwhelmed and short-staffed hospitals will likely still take their toll on data collection.”

It's funny how the people who advocate letting COVID run its course never consider that if enough people get sick at the same time, then that is potentially worse than anti-COVID measures, because people in the health services get sick too!